Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Sunday, July 22, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Fairly calm pattern.

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

  1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
  2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  7.  Long-range weather videos
  8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
  9.  Monthly outlooks.
  10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

.

July 22, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny over southeast Missouri with a mix of sun and clouds elsewhere.   Dry over southeast Missouri with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms as you move towards southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 75 to 80 southeast Illinois.  83 to 86 elsewhere      KY ~ 75 to 80 NW KY and 83 to 86 elsewhere    TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20% SW IL increasing to near 50% SW IL     KY ~ 20% to 30% far west KY and 40% to 50% elsewhere      TN ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered over most of the area.  A bit more numerous over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky
Wind: Northwest at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.  Some storms are possible
UV Index: 4 to 10 High (highest over southeast Missouri and lower over southeast Illinois and eastern parts of west Kentucky
Sunrise: 5:51 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Mild.  A few showers and thunderstorms (mainly over southeast Illinois and eastern parts of western Kentucky
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (perhaps scattered during the evening)
Wind: North at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways and lightning (mainly early)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but perhaps check the radars during the evening hours
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Moonrise: 4:03 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:56 AM

 

July 23, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny over southeast Missouri with a mix of sun and clouds as you move into southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Thunderstorms, if any, will be isolated.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:52 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear with a few clouds.  An isolated evening storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: North at 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Moonrise: 4:59 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:33 AM

 

July 24, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  Most likely dry.  Storms chances at or less than 10%.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None in most areas.  Perhaps an isolated wet roadway and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:53 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  A few clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Moonrise: 5:52 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:14 AM

 

July 25, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.  Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:54 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 70      KY ~ 66 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:42 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:59 AM

 

July 26, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:54 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Late night clouds with an isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66      TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps isolated wet roads and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 7:28 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:47 AM

 

July 27, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning in a few areas
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:55 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66      TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Moonrise: 8:10 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:39 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

This first graphic is the 5 day rainfall through Thursday night

 

 

Here are the rain totals through next Saturday night

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

ind with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  This is one ingredient when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

 

Sunday through Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A few thunderstorms will be possible, but they will remain below severe levels.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Vacation
  2. Fairly calm few days ahead
  3. We will have to deal with some clouds and showers/storms over portions of the region today
  4. Isolated storms Monday into Thursday
  5. Not as hot and muggy as recent weeks

I am on vacation with family this week.  Shorter updates.  Thankfully, it should be a fairly calm week.

We have a fairly calm weather pattern over the coming days.

A large upper level low will deliver clouds into the region today into this evening.

Southeast Missouri may remain mostly sunny.  A few clouds.

The clouds will be thicker over southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky and then the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  A few showers and thunderstorms will show up on radar, as well.  Mainly over southeast Illinois into parts of western Kentucky.

The good news is that severe weather is not anticipated.

Rainfall totals will be light.

Here is the NAM 3K model rainfall totals.  Notice how there is a curve to the rain totals.  That is because of the upper level low rotating over the Ohio Valley.

Click to enlarge

 

 

Temperatures today will be cooler than recent weeks.  This is especially true where clouds prevail.  That would be across southeast Illinois into parts of western Kentucky.  Highs may remain in the middle to upper 70’s where clouds are thicker.

Monday into Thursday will be warm with highs in the middle to upper 80’s.  A few 90’s possible (esp over southeast Missouri).  It won’t be as oppressive as recent weeks.

There will be isolated thunderstorm chances, but the vast majority of the region will remain dry.

Thunderstorm chances may creep back upward as we move towards Friday.  That would be in response to a new upper level system moving in from the west.  Still a bit early to be certain on rain.  I know some of you could use a bit of rain.

The great news is that scorching heat is not in the cards through Friday.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 90 to 92 degrees.  We may remain mostly below that through at least Thursday.

 

The July forecast has been updated. The heat will likely be the big story.

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 652

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a meteorologist at the Naval Research Laboratory. Dr. David Peterson, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Last year was a record year for wildfires across the globe, and their impact on the atmosphere remains highly uncertain. Thanks to new research from expert scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, the world is gaining more insight into what drives these massive and escalating events. NRL meteorologist Dr. Peterson explained his findings from his recent research, “Wildfire-Driven Thunderstorms Cause a Volcano-Like Stratospheric Injection of Smoke,” during a press conference at the European Geosciences Union’s annual General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, held from April 8 to 13. “Our research shows that the stratospheric impact from five wildfire-driven thunderstorms, known as pyrocumulonimbus or pyroCb, was comparable to a moderate volcanic eruption,” Peterson explained the NRL pryoCb research team’s findings and that it’s an interdisciplinary collaboration with scientists from both the Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions within NRL. The significance of volcanic eruptions in the climate system has been recognized for several decades, but pyroCb research is relatively new, originating at NRL in the early 2000s, according to Peterson.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 120 at Death Valley, CA, and 41 at Naples, ID
  • NASA Sponsored Joint Korea/US Air Quality Campaign
  • Birmingham reached 105F on this date in 1980
  • Tropics all quiet in Atlantic basin
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *