Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 7, 2018: Non-subscribers update. Rain is the topic.

3 PM

This is the favored model.

Notice how heavy bands form this evening into Saturday.  Also, notice the lull?  There could be a lull Saturday before more showers and storms form.  A few storms Saturday afternoon could become severe.  Short lived tornadoes can’t be ruled out.  Monitor updates.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation

 

 

12:30 PM

Video update

 

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September 7, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Some morning sunshine possible.  Becoming mostly cloudy.  A few morning showers.  Showers becoming likely this afternoon.  Some thunderstorms possible.  Greatest chance will be during the afternoon.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 78 to 84    IL ~ 78 to 84       KY ~ 84 to 86      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% this morning and  70% this afternoon     IL ~ 30% this morning and 70% this afternoon       KY ~  20% this morning and 60% this afternoon      TN ~ 20% this morning and 60% this afternoon
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early.  Becoming numerous this afternoon (esp southeast MO and southern IL)
Wind:  East and southeast at 8 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and scattered lightning.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
UV Index: 3 to 4  Low
Sunrise:  6:31 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Showers and a few thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain likely.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 90%     IL ~ 90%       KY ~ 70%      TN ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind:  East and southeast becoming south at 8  to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and scattered lightning.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
Sunset:  7:15 AM
Moonrise: 3:50 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  6:11 PM

 

September 8, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Showers and a few thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain likely.  A few strong storms possible.  There could be a lull in the rain during the late morning into early PM hours.  Then, more storms form.  Short lived tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
Temperatures:  MO ~72 to 80     IL ~ 72 to 79       KY ~ 78 to 84      TN ~ 78 t0 84
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 90%    IL ~ 90%       KY ~ 80%      TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread morning rain.  A lull.  More storms forming in the PM hours.
Wind:  East and southeast at 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and scattered lightning.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.  Short lived tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  There could be some strong storms.  Short lived tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
UV Index: 2 to 4 Low
Sunrise:  6:32 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Showers and a few thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain likely.  A few strong storms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68      IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 80%       KY ~ 80%      TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Wind:  East and southeast wind at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  There could be some strong storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
Moonrise: 5:02 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  6:54 PM

 

September 9, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Rain should be ending from west to east.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 75     IL ~ 70 to 75       KY ~ 70 to 75     TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 40%      TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending from west to east
Wind:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
UV Index: 3 to 6  Low to moderate
Sunrise:  6:32 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Some clearing.  A chance of a shower early in the evening.  Rain may have ended by Sunday evening.  Otherwise, patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 56 to 62      IL ~ 56 to 62      KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated. Rain should be ending from west to east on Sunday.
Wind:  Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog possible.  This could lower visibility
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:  7:12 PM
Moonrise: 6:14 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  7:32 PM

 

September 10, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 78     IL ~ 74 to 78       KY ~ 74 to 78      TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Morning fog could lower visibility
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 7  Moderate to high (depends on clouds)
Sunrise:  6:33 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  A few clouds.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 62       KY ~ 60 to 62      TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog could lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  N0
Sunset:  7:10 PM
Moonrise: 7:24 AM  New
Moonset:  8:09 PM

 

September 11, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few clouds from time to time.  Pleasant temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 78     IL ~ 76 to 78       KY ~ 76 to 78      TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  A slight chance across northwest Tennessee
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 Moderate
Sunrise:  6:34 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A  slight chance of a shower.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Slight chance of wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:09 PM
Moonrise: 6:34 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  8:43 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

This graphic takes us through next Friday morning.

Most of this falls today through Sunday morning.

You may need to enlarge these to read the numbers.  Just click on each image.

 

 

Click to enlarge

Regional view

.

 

Here is the zoomed version of the above centered on southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

This graphic takes us from now through 7 AM next Friday

Most of this will fall today through Sunday morning.

Click to enlarge the graphics.

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

Most of this will fall today through Sunday morning.

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Thursday:  Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days.  There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.  Heavy rain is the main concern.  Some gusty winds, as well.

There is a chance of flash flooding in a few localized areas.  Monitor the latest watches and warnings (if any are issued).

Short lived tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon.  Monitor updates.

I can’t rule out intense storms Saturday afternoon and evening.  Monitor updates.

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Heavy rain concerns.
  2. Widespread one to three inches with pockets of three to six+ inches.
  3. Cooler temperatures into early next week.

 

Flash flood watches.

No major changes to the going forecast from last night.

I did increase rain totals since yesterday morning’s update.  I posted those last night.  See graphics below.

I am quite concerned about rain totals in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Flash flooding is likely to occur in some of my forecast counties.

As always, avoid flooded roadways.

Gordon

The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are making their way into our region.

Here is the morning visible satellite imagery.  You can see the swirl of clouds in Arkansas.

A cold front is approaching from the north.

These two systems combined will help produce rain in our region.

Click to enlarge.

 

 

Some of you experienced tropical downpours Thursday afternoon and evening.  There were several reports of one to two inches of rain in less than an hour.

Tropical systems produce smaller rain droplets.  This causes rain totals to increase in a shorter duration of time.

In other words, tropical downpours can produce a lot of rain in a short period of time.  This is the reason for the flash flood watch.

The rain will increase in coverage this afternoon into tonight.  It will become widespread.  The widespread rain will continue into Saturday and Saturday night.

Before all is said and done, most of us should receive one to three inches of rain.  Many locations will receive more than three inches.

There is the potential for portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois to receive six or more inches of rain before all is said and done on Sunday.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Flash flooding is a distinct possibility from this event.

The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for portions of the region.

 

 

They could add additional counties.  If you are not in the watch then you could still receive locally heavy rain.  The totals are not forecast to be as great as other counties in our area.

 

Rain Totals

Here are my latest rain probability charts.

Here are my current rainfall projections numbers.  These graphics show you the probability of X amount of rain falling.

Southeast Missouri

The Missouri Bootheel

Southern Illinois

Northwest Kentucky

The rest of western Kentucky

Northwest Tennessee

 

 

PWAT’s are a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  We will have very high PWAT values with this incoming system.  Why?  The moisture is coming out of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico.  These tropical systems carry copious amounts of moisture.  The equals high PWAT values.

 

 

Check out this animation of PWAT values.  Anything about 1.7″ is high.  Above 2″ is extreme.

The bottom line is that showers and thunderstorms will be prolific rain producers.  A lot of moisture to tap into.

 

 

Here is the NAM 3K model future-cast radar through 1 PM Sunday

Click to enlarge.

This won’t be exact, of course.  This is simply a model’s projection of what radar might look like.  Green is rain.  Yellow and orange would be heavier rain.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

 

 

Here is the lower resolution NAM model.

Future-cast radar.  What this model believes radar might look like over the coming three day period.

Click to enlarge.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

 

 

The WPC/NOAA has placed our region a risk of flash flooding over the coming days.

A marginal to moderate risk today.

What does this mean?  It just means that there is the potential of locally heavy rain that could cause pockets of flash flooding.

The greatest risk will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Green is a marginal risk.  Yellow is a slight risk.  Red is a moderate risk.  Moderate being the highest of the three.

 

 

Tomorrow we are all in a slight to moderate risk of exessive rainfall.

 

 

Sunday

The risk will shift further and further east.

 

 

These are forecasted rain totals through 1 PM Sunday.

This is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

Numerous pockets of heavy rain on the high-resolution NAM model.

Notice on these models that portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee receive MUCH less rainfall than other areas.  This has been a going theme in the guidance packages.

Don’t be surprised if some areas receive much lower totals.

 

 

Here is the lower resolution NAM model.

The NAM goes all in on big totals for some of my forecast counties.

 

 

Here are the GFS model guidance rainfall totals through 1 PM Monday.  Again, just another model.

This one appears to be too far north with the heaviest rain band.

 

 

Now, let’s look at rain totals from the Canadian model through 1 PM Monday.

 

 

I have lowered rain chances Monday and Tuesday.  There will be a weak disturbance near the region Monday night into Tuesday.  I can’t rule out a few light showers, but overall the forecast appears to be dry Monday into the middle of next week.  Cooler, as well.

Highs Saturday into Wednesday will likely be in the 70’s for highs and 60’s for lows.  Some 50’s are possible (see the daily forecast at the top of this blog update).

 

Spotter classes

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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First glance at fall!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 659

Dr. Jack Davis, our Guest WeatherBrain for this episode of our netcast, is the professor of history at the University of Florida and a Pulitzer Prize-winning author of the book The Gulf: The Making of an American Sea. His areas of specialization include US Environmental History, Modern US, US South, Florida History, and Sustainability Studies. He has penned two other books: An Everglades Providence: Marjory Stoneman Douglas and the American Environmental Century and Race Against Time: Culture and Separation in Natchez Since 1930.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 113 at Death Valley, CA, and 24 at Stanley, ID
  • Hurricane Gordon making landfall in north central Gulf Coast
  • Typhoon Jebi smashes Japan
  • Excessive rain along front from Colorado to western Great Lakes
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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