Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 5, 2018: Non-subscribers update. Warm weather. Monitoring rain chances.

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $5 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

The $5 will allow you to register up to seven phones!

For $5 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed messages from me to you.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.

 

  • Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  • Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  • AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  • Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  • Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  • Long-range weather videos
  • Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
    Monthly outlooks.
  • Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

 

Would you like to subscribe?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

 

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

September 5, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Increasing clouds through the day.  A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 90       KY ~ 88 to 92      TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways.  Scattered lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:29 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: East and southeast at 6 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 6, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%    KY ~ 40% to 50%      TN ~  40% to 50%
Wind:  East and southeast at 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 4 to 6  Low to moderate (we will have to monitor cloud cover)
Sunrise:  6:30 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%      TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  East and southeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:16 PM
Moonrise: 2:42 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  5:21 PM

 

September 7, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  Some thunderstorms possible.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 78 to 84    IL ~ 78 to 84       KY ~ 84 to 86      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%     IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 60%      TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Wind:  East and southeast at 8 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered to numerous wet roadways and scattered lightning.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
UV Index: 3 to 4  Low
Sunrise:  6:31 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly cloudy.  Showers and a few thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%     IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 70%      TN ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Wind:  East and southeast becoming south at 7  to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Numerous wet roadways and scattered lightning.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
Sunset:  7:15 AM
Moonrise: 3:50 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  6:11 PM

 

September 8, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures:  MO ~76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82       KY ~ 80 to 85      TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%    IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 60%      TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind:  East and southeast at 6 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered to numerous wet roadways and scattered lightning.  Locally heavy rain could cause flash flooding in a few locations.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
UV Index: 2 to 4 Low
Sunrise:  6:32 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  Some downpours again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%    IL ~ 50% to 60%       KY ~ 40% to 50%      TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind:  East and southeast wind at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Scattered wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars and updates
Moonrise: 5:02 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  6:54 PM

 

September 9, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 76     IL ~ 75 to 80       KY ~ 78 to 82      TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%      TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  West and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
UV Index: 3 to 6  Low to moderate
Sunrise:  6:32 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.  A few showers again possible.  Perhaps a thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 60 to 65      KY ~ 62 to 64      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Wind:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset:  7:12 PM
Moonrise: 6:14 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  7:32 PM

 

September 10, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  Mild.  A shower or thunderstorm possible.  Chances will be lower than previous days.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 78     IL ~ 74 to 78       KY ~ 74 to 78      TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and monitor forecast updates.
UV Index: 6 to 7  Moderate to high (depends on clouds)
Sunrise:  6:33 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65       KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated (mostly in west Tennessee)
Wind:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.
Sunset:  7:10 PM
Moonrise: 7:24 AM  New
Moonset:  8:09 PM

 

September 11, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A slight chance of showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 74 to 78     IL ~ 74 to 78       KY ~ 74 to 78      TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 6 Moderate
Sunrise:  6:34 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds.  Cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 66       KY ~ 62 to 66      TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy dense fog possible.  Slight chance of wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:09 PM
Moonrise: 6:34 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  8:43 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

Here is the 72-hour rainfall forecast.

 

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast.  This takes us into next Wednesday morning

Remember, this is never exact.  Take the general idea of how much rain could fall.  Some will receive more and some less, as always is the case in our region.

National view.  You can see where the tropical system tracks.  If the track of the tropical system shifts then this would need updating.

Most of this falls Thursday through Saturday night.

Click to enlarge

.

 

 

Here is the zoomed version of the above centered on southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

Notice the sharp gradient.  This graphic takes us from now through 7 AM next Wednesday

Click to enlarge the graphics.

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

This is through 7 AM next Wednesday

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible over the coming days.  There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.  If thunderstorms form then they would produce heavy rain.  Showers would also produce heavy rain.

At this time, the severe weather risk appears limited.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Gordon’s moisture plume
  2. Rain chances into the weekend
  3. Locally heavy rain is possible in some counties

.

 

 

The main weather story is going to be a cold front moving into our region from the north.  That, combined with the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon, will give us daily rain chances.

Today will be warm and humid.  Same as yesterday.  A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  Many areas will remain dry today.  There will be some increase in clouds as we move through the day.

Today’s high temperature forecast.  Some locations will top 90 degrees.

This is from the NAM model guidance.

 

 

Dew points will be high.  That means it will feel muggy outside.

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Gordon moved ashore last night.  The tropical system will help spread moisture north and northwest over the coming days.  Eventually, it will turn north and northeast.

You can see Gordon on this morning’s radar view.

 

 

The main concern will be the incoming cold front bumping into the warm and moist air-mass.  This will help trigger numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.   Often times tropical systems do not produce much in the way of lightning.

The greatest coverage should be Thursday night into Saturday.  This is when the front and Gordon will interact with each other.

Tropical systems tend to be prolific precipitation makers.  Meaning, the showers can produce quite a bit of rain in a short period of time.

This will need to be monitored.  I can’t rule out some flash flooding.   Flooding is not forecast to be widespread.

The greatest risk of flash flooding will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Even there, the risk is marginal.  I will be monitoring guidance trends.

The WPC/NOAA has placed portions of our region in a marginal risk of flash flooding Friday.

The marginal risk is the green zone.  The yellow zone is a slight risk.  Red is a moderate risk of flash flooding.  Again, this is for Friday.  We could have downpours before then, as well.  WPC does not forecast past day three.  We will have a risk of heavy rain beyond Friday, as well.

 

 

Elsewhere, locally heavy rain will also be possible.  The coverage is forecast to be greater over Missouri and Illinois.

Confidence on the exact placement of the heaviest rain is still questionable.  Monitor updates.

Let’s look at three models.  These are forecast rain totals through the next 84 hours.  Keep in mind, some additional rain would fall after this time.

The NAM model guidance shows very heavy rain totals.  Again, the exact track of the tropical system and cold front will be key to rain totals.

Thus, these totals could shift around a bit.

Overall, there has been some shift southward in the guidance.  That pushes heavier rain into our region.  Whether this trend continues will need to be monitored.

Now through 1 PM Saturday

 

 

GFS model guidance

 

 

GDPS guidance

 

 

The model guidance has shifted the track of Gordon somewhat eastward over the last 48 hours.  That would mean increasing rain chances locally.

Here is the track forecast (keep in mind, this is for the center of the system).  The actual rain bands would extend out further than the center of the system.

 

 

There remain some questions on the exact track of the heaviest rain.  This will need to be monitored.  For now, it appears Missouri and Illinois will have a greater chance of heavy rain than say Kentucky and Tennessee.

If you have weekend plans, then I would monitor updates.  We will have some rain on the radar this weekend.

The increasing clouds and rain chances will help keep temperatures cooler as we push into the weekend.  Highs may only reach the 70’s Saturday, Sunday, and perhaps Monday.  This will be dependent on cloud cover and precipitation.  Overnight lows in the 60’s.

Best chance of those 70’s would be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Elsewhere, a few degrees higher.

 

Spotter classes

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

.

.
The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
.

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

First glance at fall!

 

These products are for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

.

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 


 

 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

St Louis, Missouri, National Weather Association

This episode of WeatherBrains is coming directly from the NWA annual meeting in St. Louis, MO. Lots of discussion on various topics from the NWA conference. Joining us tonight from the meeting are Dr. John Scala, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Scott Martin, James Spann, Greg Stumpf, Alis Smith, Kevin Laws (BHM), Fred Glass, Dr. Pam Heinselman (NSSL), and Dr. Chuck Graves (St. Louis University).

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 114 at Death Valley, CA, and 29 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Severe thunderstorm watches tonight North Central US
  • MCS from MN into WI Monday night
  • Severe weather stays north from Great Lakes to New England next 2 days
  • One year anniversary of Hurricane Harvey
  • 25th anniversary of 1993 Flood in St. Louis area
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *