Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 20, 2018: Non-subscribers update. Hot day ahead. Cooler weather on the way.

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September 20, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot.  Humid.  Near record high temperatures.  An isolated shower or storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 93 to 96      IL ~ 93 to 96      KY ~ 93 to 96      TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southeast becoming south and southwest at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 19 High
Sunrise: 6:42 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds.  A slight chance of a late night shower.  Most likely we will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72      IL ~ 68 to 72      KY ~ 68 to 72      TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways (mainly over our northern counties)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:55 PM
Moonrise: 4:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:20 AM

 

September 21, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Increasing clouds.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Clouds and precipitation will help keep temperatures down a bit.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 86     KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.  There will be rain in the region.
UV Index: 5 to 6 Medium
Sunrise: 6:42 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 62 to 66     TN ~ 62 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%     KY ~ 60% to 70%     TN ~ 60% to 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Wind becoming north at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset: 6:54 PM
Moonrise: 5:25 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:14 AM

 

 

September 22, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.  Clouds will help keep temperatures down.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74     IL ~ 68 to 74     KY ~ 72 to 76     TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 60% to 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low
Sunrise: 6:43 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.   Showers again possible.   Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62     IL ~ 56 to 61     KY ~ 60 to 64     TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~ 30% to 40%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset: 6:52 PM
Moonrise: 5:55 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:14 AM

 

September 23, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers possible.  Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 72 to 76     KY ~ 72 to 76     TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~ 30% to 40%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5 Low to medium
Sunrise: 6:44 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A few showers again possible.  Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64    IL ~ 58 to 64     KY ~ 58 to 64      TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset: 6:51 PM
Moonrise: 6:30 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 5:08 AM

 

September 24, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of scattered showers.  A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80     IL ~ 75 to 80     KY ~ 75 to 80     TN ~ 75 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium to high
Sunrise: 6:45 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 66     IL ~ 64 to 66     KY ~ 64 to 66     TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 6:49 PM
Moonrise: 7:00 PM Full
Moonset: 6:06 AM

 

September 25, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 82     IL ~ 78 to 82     KY ~ 78 to 84     TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%     IL ~ 50%     KY ~ 50%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5 Low to medium
Sunrise: 6:46 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers likely.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 60 to 65     KY ~ 60 to 65     TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%     IL ~ 50%     KY ~ 50%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Southwest to west at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunset: 6:47 PM
Moonrise: 7:30 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 7:05 AM

 

September 26, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of a few showers.  Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78     IL ~ 74 to 78     KY ~ 74 to 78     TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 7 to 9 High
Sunrise: 6:47 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Clearing.  Cool.  Fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Wind:  North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some fog
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:46 PM
Moonrise: 8:02 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:05 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

This graphic takes us through next Thursday morning.

The WPC/NOAA does have heavy rain between now and then.  They have some areas receiving more than three inches.

Part of this will depend on a cold front this weekend stalling in or near the region.  If the front pushes far enough south then rain chances will temporarily diminish.

There remain questions concerning that portion of the forecast.

Click to enlarge

 

 

Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois zoom view.  Again, this is the seven day rainfall forecast from the WPC/NOAA.

Take the general idea from this graphic that some locally heavy rain is possible over the coming seven days.

A portion of this will be highly dependent on the placement of a stationary front this weekend.

Click to enlarge

 

 

Zoomed in over Kentucky and Tennessee

Click to enlarge

 

 

The GFS model guidance rainfall forecast through 1 pm Sunday

Click to enlarge the image

 

 

The Canadian model now through 1 pm Sunday

Again, notice there are some areas with heavier rain vs other areas. The Canadian model even showers portions of southern Illinois receiving less than 0.25″.

Click to enlarge the image

 

 

This next image is the NAM model guidance

The NAM guidance is bullish on heavier totals.  There are definitely plenty of differences in the guidance packages.  This is partly because some models stall the front and others do not.

This will need to be monitored.  It is not a slam-dunk forecast when it comes to precipitation totals.

Click to enlarge the image

 

 

The EC model guidance also shows some locally heavy rain totals. This is through Tuesday evening.

Click to enlarge

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser. The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Tuesday: A few widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today. Not anticipating severe weather.

Thunderstorm chances increase Friday into the weekend. At this time, it appears the risk of severe thunderstorms will be low. Perhaps not zero.

It appears that shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the Monday and Tuesday.  I will be monitoring for a few strong thunderstorms, as well.  Confidence on severe weather is low.

Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern into the middle of next week.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

  1. Near record heat today.
  2. Unsettled pattern developing.
  3. Much cooler late next week.

 

Good day, everyone!

Well, I can’t say that I was very happy with Wednesday’s forecast across southern Illinois.  The coverage of showers and thunderstorms was greater than anticipated.  That also caused the high temperatures to remain in the 70’s (for some).

I did have  scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, but not the extent that occurred.  You win some and lose some!

I know some of you have been cutting hay to get in front of the coming rain chances.  Hopefully, you will have enough dry time to today to bring it in.

The rest of the region baked in lower to middle 90 temperature readings.  Not record levels, but certainly WELL above normal for this time of the year.

Temperatures today will be near record levels.  Some areas may reach or exceed the record high temperature.   I believe, the record high temperature at Paducah, Kentucky, is 95 degrees.  It will be close to that.

I can’t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm again today.  Coverage should not be as great as what happened Wednesday.

Heat index values today will range from 95 to 100 degrees.  Hot.

There are two weather stories to follow over the coming days.  One is the return of shower and thunderstorm chances.  The other is much cooler air late next week.

Today and tonight

Today’s weather will be ruled by partly to mostly sunny sky conditions.  Isolated storms are again possible.  Hot and muggy.  It will  feel like summer.

A cold front will push into our northern counties late tonight into Friday.  This front may spark showers and thunderstorms to our north both today and tonight.  Some of those showers and thunderstorms may reach the northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois late tonight into the early morning hours of Friday.  I am not anticipating severe weather.

Here is the forecast weather map for Friday morning.  You can see the cold front pushing into Missouri and Illinois.  There could already be some showers and thunderstorms in our region tomorrow morning.  The green dash area represents rain chances.  The red circled area in Oklahoma is where locally heavy rain may occur.

 

 

Friday into Sunday

A complex weather forecast unfolding with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms.  Wide range of coverage for the region.

If you have outdoor plans Friday through Sunday, then have a plan B.   Monitor updated forecasts.  There will be rain on radars from time to time.  This could interfere with some outdoor events.  I know there are quite a few weddings this weekend.

The cold front will push into and perhaps through the region Friday and Friday night.  The front is forecast to become stationary near our area or just south of our region Saturday and Sunday.

You can see the weather map Saturday morning.  There is the frontal boundary draped across  Arkansas and Tennessee.

Now, this is a big question.  How far south will the cold front push before becoming stationary?  This will need to be monitored.

There will be overrunning precipitation.  Overrunning occurs when warm and moist air overrides a front.  This produces showers and thunderstorms north of the front.

 

 

A stationary front would mean on and off showers and thunderstorms tracking across the region.  Some of the rain could be locally heavy.

It is quite possible that northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois (closer to the I64 corridor) could end up mostly dry Saturday and Sunday.

That is not a sure bet, at this time.  It is something I am monitoring.

The coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms should increase the further south you push in the region.

That would mean that areas along the Missouri/Arkansas border and Kentucky/Tennessee border could end up with greater precipitation coverage than areas further north (Saturday and Sunday).

It appears that a widespread 0.40″ to 0.80″ rain is likely to occur.  Then, pockets of one to two inches likely.   That would be from late tonight into Sunday night.

Additional cold fronts are anticipated next week.  Rain chances will be in the forecast Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.  Some of that rain could also be locally heavy.

Between now and next Wednesday, it is possible that many areas pick up an inch or two of rain.

If showers and thunderstorms train over the same areas then locally much higher totals would occur.

The threat for severe weather is not zero, but it is not all that great, either.  I can’t rule out a few reports of strong and gusty winds.

I always like to remind people that October and November typically deliver at least one or two rounds of severe thunderstorms.  We normally do see an uptick in tornadoes during the fall.

Let’s look at some more maps.

PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  I use PWAT quite a bit during the summer months.

Anything above 1.7″ is considered high.  Anything above 2″ is considered extremely high.  We have experienced high PWAT values over the summer months.  This is one reason that some areas have picked up LARGE rainfall totals since June.  Not everyone, of course.  Some of you still need rain.

PWAT’s

 

Now, let’s look at this PWAT animation from the NAM model guidance (one model of many).

Click animation to enlarge.

Time-stamp upper left portion of the graphic.

Notice how the PWAT values drop to the north and west?  That is the cold front.  The highest PWAT values will be near the front.

 

 

Now, let’s look at the NAM future-cast radar.

I will warn you, this certainly won’t be exact and there remain questions on timing and coverage of the rain.

I always tell people to take the general idea from these graphics (not specifics).

Plan on showers and thunderstorms to dot radar Friday into Sunday night.  Additional rain likely Monday into the middle of the week, as well.

Click animation to enlarge.

Time-stamp upper left portion of the graphic.

 

 

Another big weather story will be cooler temperatures the middle and end of next week.  Our first solid cool-down of the season!  It will feel like fall.

Here is what the GFS model is showing.

The GFS does have a cold bias.  The main idea is that it will be cooler next week.

Also, notice that clouds and precipitation will keep us cooler Saturday and Sunday, as well.

 

Friday high temperatures

 

 

Saturday high temperatures

Cooler because of rain and clouds.  Expect upper 60’s to middle 70’s.

 

Sunday high temperatures

 

Wednesday high temperatures

 

Thursday high temperatures

 

Friday high temperatures

September 28th

 

Saturday high temperatures

September 29th

 

How about that!!!

Fall temperatures.  We have earned those.

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long-range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 

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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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Fall Outlook!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 661

Joining us for this episode of WeatherBrains is the Senior Policy Fellow and serves as the Associate Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society.  Since 2001 he has formulated and led the AMS Summer Policy Colloquium, a ten-day immersion in the Washington, DC, science policy process; over 500 early- and mid-career scientists have participated in this program over the past 15 years.  Also, in 2014 he wrote and published a book entitled “Living on the Real World:  How Thinking and Acting Like Meteorologists Will Help Save the Planet”.   Dr. Bill Hooke, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Aftermath of Hurricane Florence/Grading the weather enterprise and model outputs
  • Former NASA Engineer Randall Munroe cartoon
  • Issues with hurricane forecast cones and forecasting tropical system intensity
  • Univ of Maryland/Accuweather Tweet
  • Heavy rain event on Texas coast
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to their website  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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