Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 19, 2018: Non-subscribers update. Hot and humid.

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September 19, 2018

Updated


Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny and hot. Humid. Periods of clouds as storms form. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 94 IL ~ 75 to 90 (wide range) KY ~ 86 to 94 TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and isolated lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars. Rain is possible.
UV Index: 4 to 10 Wide range with clouds
Sunrise: 6:41 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog reducing visibility. Wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:57 PM
Moonrise: 4:08 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:27 AM

 

September 20, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny and hot. Humid. Near record high temperatures. A shower or storm possiuble.
Temperatures: MO ~ 93 to 96 IL ~ 93 to 96 KY ~ 93 to 96 TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southeast becoming south and southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 19 High
Sunrise: 6:42 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds. A slight chance of a late night shower. Most likely we will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways (mainly over our northern counties)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:55 PM
Moonrise: 4:48 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:20 AM

 

September 21, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Some clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest chances may end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92      TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 30%       TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind:  South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 5 to 6 Medium
Sunrise:  6:42 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 68      IL ~ 66 to 68        KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40% to 50%       TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  6:54 PM
Moonrise: 5:25 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  3:14 AM

 

 

September 22, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Cooler where clouds are thickest and precipitation is occurring.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82       KY ~ 78 to 84      TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~ 30% to 40%       KY ~ 40% to 50%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind:  Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5  Low to medium
Sunrise:  6:43 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65        KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~ 30% to 40%       KY ~ 40% to 50%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  6:52 PM
Moonrise: 5:55 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  4:14 AM

 

September 23, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 72 to 76       KY ~ 72 to 76      TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5  Low to medium
Sunrise:  6:44 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 66      IL ~ 63 to 66        KY ~ 63 to 66      TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%      TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  6:51 PM
Moonrise: 6:30 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  5:08 AM

 

September 24, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84       KY ~ 78 to 84      TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:45 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 63 to 66      IL ~ 63 to 66        KY ~ 63 to 66      TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Sunset:  6:49 PM
Moonrise: 7:00 PM  Full
Moonset:  6:06 AM

 

September 25, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 82 to 86      TN ~ 82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5  Low to medium
Sunrise:  6:46 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65        KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Sunset:  6:47 PM
Moonrise: 7:30 PM  Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  7:05 AM

 

September 26, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82       KY ~ 76 to 82      TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 to 9  High
Sunrise:  6:47 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65        KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  6:46 PM
Moonrise: 8:02 PM  Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  8:05 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

This graphic takes us through next Saturday morning.

Rain chances increase considerably Friday into Friday night.

 

 

 

This next graphic is from now through next Wednesday morning.  Perhaps some locally heavy downpours this coming weekend.

 

 

The GFS model guidance shows area of lesser totals in the region.  There remain some questions about rainfall totals.

This is through next Tuesday morning.

 

 

The Canadian model now through next Tuesday morning.

Again, notice there are some areas with heavier rain vs other areas.  The Canadian model even showers portions of southern Illinois receiving less than 0.25″.

 

The EC model guidance also shows some locally heavy rain totals.  This is through Tuesday evening.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Monday:  Scattered storms today.  Not anticipating severe weather.  Thunderstorm chances increase Friday into the weekend.  At this time, it appears the risk of severe thunderstorms will be low.  Perhaps not zero.

Otherwise, an isolated thunderstorm is possible today (Wednesday).  The chances are low at any given location.  Lightning would be the main concern.

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

  1. The heat is on!
  2. Near record highs Thursday.
  3. Showers and thunderstorms likely as we push into the weekend.
  4. October and November update (see long range graphics)
  5. First look (glance) at winter (see long range video discussion)

 

The big weather story today and tomorrow will be the heat.  You can expect widespread 90’s both days.  Thursday’s record high at Paducah, Kentucky, is 95 degrees.  We may reach it.  Either way, it will be hot and humid.

This has been quite the streak of 90 degree days.  We have hit 90 degrees (or above) since the 13th.  That is quite the number of days with 90 and above for so late in the year.

We will have an isolated thunderstorm chance Wednesday afternoon and evening.  The vast majority of the region will remain dry.

The forecast becomes unsettled as we move into the weekend.

I am monitoring a cold front that will approach our northern counties late Thursday night.  This front will settle into the region Friday and Friday night.

The big question is what happens after Friday night into the weekend.

Does the front stall or keep moving southward.  The answer to the question will be a big player in the weather forecast.

The front will certainly slow its progress Friday and Friday night.  It appears it may stall somewhere near southern Missouri or central/northern Arkansas, into Kentucky.   If this does occur, then rain chances will be with us Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and perhaps Monday.

Model guidance over the last 24 hours has trended further south with the cold front.  If this is true, then portions of the region may not see much rain Saturday or Saturday night.  That would be more likely over northern portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Needless to say, my confidence in how the weekend forecast pans out is rather low.  There will certainly be rain chances.  The question is how much rain and how great will the coverage be.

If you have weekend plans, then monitor updates.

Typically, a stalled front would mean training precipitation.  What is training?   Training is when showers and thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same areas.  Let’s keep an eye on it.  Much of the region received heavy rain last week.  I realize that some of you did not receive nearly as much rain as others.

Heavy rain would not be welcome for those already having issues with river flooding.

Temperatures Saturday and Sunday would be somewhat cooler because of clouds and precipitation.  Instead of 90’s, we will likely end up in the 80’s Saturday and 70’s Sunday.  Again, that is highly dependent on the placement of the stalled front.

If the front settles south of the region, then rain chances won’t be as great.  I will be monitoring trends.

The risk of severe weather appears small.  I will, as always, monitor the situation and update accordingly.

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long-range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 

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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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This product is for subscribers.

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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Fall Outlook!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 661

Joining us for this episode of WeatherBrains is the Senior Policy Fellow and serves as the Associate Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society.  Since 2001 he has formulated and led the AMS Summer Policy Colloquium, a ten-day immersion in the Washington, DC, science policy process; over 500 early- and mid-career scientists have participated in this program over the past 15 years.  Also, in 2014 he wrote and published a book entitled “Living on the Real World:  How Thinking and Acting Like Meteorologists Will Help Save the Planet”.   Dr. Bill Hooke, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Aftermath of Hurricane Florence/Grading the weather enterprise and model outputs
  • Former NASA Engineer Randall Munroe cartoon
  • Issues with hurricane forecast cones and forecasting tropical system intensity
  • Univ of Maryland/Accuweather Tweet
  • Heavy rain event on Texas coast
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to their website  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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