Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 18, 2018: Non-subscriber update. First look at winter. Hot weather today.

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September 18, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  A chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms after 12 PM.  Hot and humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94    IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Wind:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most locations will have no impacts from the weather.  A few wet roads and lightning possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:40AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some evening clouds then clearing.  An evening shower or thunderstorm possible.  Isolated.  Mild.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 70      IL ~ 66 to 70       KY ~ 66 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind:  Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.  Isolated lightning early in the evening.  Perhaps patchy fog reducing visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  6:58 PM
Moonrise: 3:23 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  12:38 AM

 

September 19, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny and hot.  Humid.  A chance of isolated thunderstorms.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94    IL ~ 86 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated.
Wind:  South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads and isolated lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise:  6:41 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 70      IL ~ 66 to 70       KY ~ 66 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind:  South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog reducing visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  6:57 PM
Moonrise: 4:08 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  1:27 AM

 

September 20, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny and hot.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 93 to 96    IL ~ 93 to 96       KY ~ 93 to 96      TN ~ 93 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%       KY ~ 5%      TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind:  Southeast becoming south and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8 to 19 High
Sunrise:  6:42 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some increase in clouds.  A slight chance of a late night shower.  Most likely we will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72      IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72      TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some wet roadways (mainly over our northern counties)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  6:55 PM
Moonrise: 4:48 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  2:20 AM

 

September 21, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Some clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Greatest chances may end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92       KY ~ 88 to 92      TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 30%       TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Wind:  South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
UV Index: 5 to 6 Medium
Sunrise:  6:42 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 68      IL ~ 66 to 68        KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 40% to 50%       TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  6:54 PM
Moonrise: 5:25 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  3:14 AM

 

 

September 22, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Cooler where clouds are thickest and precipitation is occurring.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82       KY ~ 78 to 84      TN ~ 78 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind:  Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5  Low to medium
Sunrise:  6:43 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65        KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  6:52 PM
Moonrise: 5:55 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  4:14 AM

 

September 23, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 72 to 76       KY ~ 72 to 76      TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 40% to 50%       KY ~ 50% to 60%      TN ~  50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind:  South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates
UV Index: 3 to 5  Low to medium
Sunrise:  6:44 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65        KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%      TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates
Sunset:  6:51 PM
Moonrise: 6:30 PM  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:  5:08 AM

 

September 24, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82       KY ~ 76 to 82      TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind:  West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:45 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65        KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Sunset:  6:49 PM
Moonrise: 7:00 PM  Full
Moonset:  6:06 AM

 

September 25, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82       KY ~ 76 to 82      TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 to 5  Low to medium
Sunrise:  6:46 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65      IL ~ 60 to 65        KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  6:47 PM
Moonrise: 7:30 PM  Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  7:05 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

This graphic takes us through Friday morning.

Perhaps a few showers this afternoon and evening.  Most areas will remain dry.

There could be some showers today across the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and towards Poplar Bluff.

Click to enlarge

 

 

This next graphic is from now through next Tuesday morning.  Perhaps some locally heavy downpours this coming weekend.

Greatest coverage may end up being Saturday and Sunday.

 

The GFS model guidance does not show as much rain.  There remain some questions about rainfall totals.

This is through next Tuesdasy morning.

 

 

The Canadian model now through next Tuesday morning.

This model is showing heavier totals than the GFS guidance.

 

 

The EC model guidance also shows some locally heavy rain totals.  This is through Tuesday evening.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Sunday:  Thunderstorm chances increase Friday into the weekend.  At this time, it appears the risk of severe thunderstorms will be low.  Perhaps not zero.  I am monitoring Sunday and Monday (September 23rd and 24th).

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Hot and humid today.
  2. Warm weather into the weekend.
  3. Weekend shower and thunderstorm chances are on the increase.
  4. October and November update (see long range graphics)  Subscribers only.
  5. First look (glance) at winter (see long range video discussion)  Subscribers only.

 

Check out the water vapor satellite image from Monday night.  You can see Florence.  You can also see the moisture being pulled northward from the Carribean.  This is one of the reasons for heavy rain totals.

 

 

Monday’s temperatures were quite warm across the region.  They were mostly in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees.  Clouds lingered a bit longer over our eastern counties.  Temperatures there were in the middle to upper 80’s.  Either way, it was warm.  It was also humid.

There were a couple of light showers Monday afternoon and evening.  The vast majority of the region remained dry.

We will have a chance of isolated showers this afternoon and evening.  The vast majority of the region will remain dry.

Here is the Hrrr model guidance future-cast radar.  This is for today.  Notice a couple of showers and storms popping up during the heat of the day.

 

 

You can expect another round of heat and humidity today, as well.  Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees.  We will repeat this Wednesday and Thursday!  Summer weather is holding on.

Check out the temperature anomaly maps.  These maps show you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures will be.

This was Monday’s

Normal high temperatures are around 84 degrees.  Red shows you above normal temperatures.

 

 

This is today’s forecast

 

 

This is Wednesday’s forecast

 

 

This is Thursday’s forecast

 

 

Weekend Rain Chances

An interesting weather pattern develops Friday into next week.  A stalled front with rain chances.

Later this week, a cold front will push into the region.  The front will move towards southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Thursday night and especially on Friday/Friday night.

This front will bump into the warm and moist air.  There will be quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere Friday into early next week.  There will be high PWAT values.  PWAT is a measure of moisture.  We are expecting PWAT values to range from 1.6 to 2.1″.  That is high enough to warrant the mention of locally heavy rain.

The front is forecast to stall in the region Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.  If the front does stall, then showers and thunderstorms could train over the same areas.  Training precipitation coupled with high PWAT values will mean heavy rain totals.

The definition of training is when showers and thunderstorms repeatedly moving over the same area.

There remain some questions about where and when the front will stall.  If you have weekend plans, monitor updated forecasts.

At this time, it appears the greatest rain chances will arrive Saturday and Sunday.  Some choice locations may top two inches of rain between Friday and next Tuesday.  That would be where precipitation trains over the same areas.

The risk of severe weather appears low.  Monitor updates in case that changes.  There will be some instability to work with.

I am not tracking any solid cooldowns just yet.  I keep looking.

 

Want information on the tropics?

Please visit the National Hurricane Center’s website for the latest information on Florence.

The National Hurricane Center will be issuing forecasts on this system.

Here is their link  CLICK HERE

 

Spotter classes

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 

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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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This product is for subscribers.

 

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This product is for subscribers.

 

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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Fall Outlook!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 660

Joining us once again for this episode of WeatherBrains is Dr. Marshall Shepherd from the University of Georgia. He needs almost no introduction to our audience as a former President of the AMS and the host of The Weather Channel’s WxGeeks show. Dr. Marshall Shepherd, welcome back to WeatherBrains! Dr. Shepherd was a guest panelist on episode 572 and guest WeatherBrain on episode 628.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 111 at Death Valley, CA. & Ocotillo Wells, CA, and 21 at Stanley, ID
  • Three hurricanes in the Atlantic
  • Florence threatening landfall in the Carolinas as major hurricane
  • Isaac to move into Caribbean
  • Helene to stay at sea
  • Another storm to affect Hawaii (Olivia)
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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