Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 12, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Warming trend for the weekend. Watching Florence.

 

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September 12, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Mild temperatures.  An isolated light shower possible over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.  Most will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 80     IL ~ 76 to 80       KY ~ 76 to 80      TN ~ 76 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Small chance of a shower.
Wind: E NE at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:35 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds over the southern and southeast half of the region.  Clearing overnight.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Wind:  East and northeast at 2 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  If fog forms there would be lower visibility
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:07 PM
Moonrise: 9:39 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  9:17 PM

 

September 13, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.   Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 82 to 86      TN ~ 82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: Northeast at 4 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 8 High
Sunrise:  6:36 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 64      IL ~ 62 to 64      KY ~ 62 to 64      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Perhaps patchy fog reducing visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:06 PM
Moonrise: 10:44 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  9:52 PM

 

September 14, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 88     IL ~ 86 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 88      TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8 High
Sunrise:  6:37 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.    Mild.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68       KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:04 PM
Moonrise: 11:45 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  10:29 PM

 

September 15, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 88     IL ~ 86 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 88      TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8 High
Sunrise:  6:37 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?   No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:03 PM
Moonrise: 12:45 PM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  11:08 PM

 

September 16, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 88     IL ~ 86 to 88       KY ~ 86 to 88      TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None.
Wind:  North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise:  6:38 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70       KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind:  North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:01 PM
Moonrise: 1:41 PM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  11:51 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

This graphic takes us through Saturday morning.

Check out the East Coast. A catastrophic flood event is going to happen in some towns and cities.

Rain is not anticipated locally through Friday.  Small chance of a light shower tonight and Wednesday.

 

 

As we move past Sunday the WPC/NOAA has outlined portions of our region for rain.  This would be from Florence.  At this time, confidence in this happening remains low.  I continue to monitor guidance.

This graphic takes us through next Wednesday morning

 

 

This graphic takes us through next Wednesday morning.  Some places may receive 20 to 40 inches of rain.  Simply incredible.  This will be a horrible storm for many people out east.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through next Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Clouds today and perhaps a light shower.
  2. Calm weather through Sunday.
  3. Hurricane Florence.

 

Another straightforward forecast.  Mostly calm weather into the weekend.

We do have some clouds to deal with today.  I can’t rule out a light shower.  This would most likely occur in the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  The chances of more than 0.05″ is small.

Most areas will remain dry.

Here are the 9 AM temperatures and cloud cover.  Notice the clouds become thicker the further south you travel.  That is the forecast for today.  Clouds over portions of the region and sun and clouds elsewhere.

 

 

The next weather topic will be warmer temperatures.  We will experience a slow temperature rise today into the weekend.  Friday into Sunday will deliver calm weather with highs in the 85 to 90-degree range.  Nothing extreme, but warmer.

Dry weather Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.  Dry weather may last into Monday and Tuesday.  The long-range forecast confidence drops once we move past Monday.  This is because of Florence.  Florence could eventually bring clouds and rain into our region, but confidence in this happening remains low.

Monitor updates.

 

 

Here is the 9 AM satellite view of this major hurricane.

The bottom two images are from the International Space Station.  They took a few photos earlier today.

Powerful hurricane.

 

 

 

 

The National Hurricane Center will be issuing forecasts on this system.

Here is their link  CLICK HERE

 

Spotter classes

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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This product is for subscribers.

 

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 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

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Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

.

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 660

Joining us once again for this episode of WeatherBrains is Dr. Marshall Shepherd from the University of Georgia. He needs almost no introduction to our audience as a former President of the AMS and the host of The Weather Channel’s WxGeeks show. Dr. Marshall Shepherd, welcome back to WeatherBrains! Dr. Shepherd was a guest panelist on episode 572 and guest WeatherBrain on episode 628.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 111 at Death Valley, CA. & Ocotillo Wells, CA, and 21 at Stanley, ID
  • Three hurricanes in the Atlantic
  • Florence threatening landfall in the Carolinas as major hurricane
  • Isaac to move into Caribbean
  • Helene to stay at sea
  • Another storm to affect Hawaii (Olivia)
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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