Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

November 28, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Cold weather today. Increasing rain chances late week.

 

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November 28, 2018
Wednesday forecast
:  Cold.  Mostly cloudy.  A slight chance of a flurry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 36 to 44      IL ~ 35 to 40        KY ~ 38 to 44      TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  20 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Small chance of a flurry
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed:  Becoming east and southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Once again, cold temperatures will make it uncomfortable.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:48 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Low temperatures may occur early in the night.  Rising temperatures late.  A chance of a light shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 28 to 34      IL ~ 28 to 32        KY ~ 30 to 35       TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is flooding anticipated?  No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Wind direction and speed: Becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise:  10:33  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  11:49 AM

 

November 29, 2018
Thursday forecast
:  Intervals of clouds.  Not quite as cold.   A weak and fast-moving system will push across the area.  I can’t rule out a light shower.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 52 to 56      IL ~ 52 to 56       KY ~ 52 to 56       TN ~ 52 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed: Southeast and south at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Most likely no
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:49 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 45 to 50      IL ~ 45 to 50        KY ~ 45 to 50       TN ~ 46 to 52
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered and increasing late at night
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Wind direction and speed:  South to southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  A few rain showers could cause damp conditions.
Sunset: 4:38 PM
Moonrise:  11:41  PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  12:29 PM

 

November 30, 2018
Friday forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Showers and thunderstorms scattered around the area.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 63 to 66      IL ~ 63 to 66        KY ~ 63 to 66       TN ~ 64 to 68
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updates and radars.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Damp conditions if showers develop.
UV Index: 1 to 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:50 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms.  Some moderate rain likely.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 50 to 55     IL ~ 50 to 55        KY ~ 52 to 56       TN ~ 53 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 90%     IL ~ 90%     KY ~ 90%     TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flooding anticipated?  Unlikely.  Ditches may fill up.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.  I can’t rule out severe weather.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Yes.  Wet conditions.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  11:59  PM Last Quarter
Moonset:  1:06 PM

 

December 1, 2018
Saturday forecast
:    I will be carefully monitoring late Saturday morning and early afternoon.  If storms were to develop during that time period then they could be severe.  For now, it appears most of the rain will have ended by then.  Windy.  Mostly cloudy early.  Decreasing clouds through the day.  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10 AM.  Diminishing precipitation coverage through the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~ 65 to 70        KY ~ 66 to 72     TN ~ 6 to 72
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   Rain chances will occur early in the day.  MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 70%     KY ~ 50%     TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps numerous early in the day.  Ending southwest to northeast during the morning hours.
Is flooding anticipated?  Some ditches and low-land flooding possible.
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed: Southwest and south at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways early in the day.  Lightning early in the day.  I can’t rule out some strong thunderstorms early in the morning.  Monitor this part of the forecast.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? Yes, early in the day.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor morning radars.  Rain will continue into the morning hours and then end southwest to northeast.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Wet outdoor conditions could be an issue.
UV Index: 3  Moderate
Sunrise: 6:51 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Patchy fog.  Mostly clear sky conditions.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 44 to 48      IL ~ 44 to 48        KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flooding anticipated?  No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Wind direction and speed: South to west at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Patchy fog possible if winds die down.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Most likely none, unless fog forms.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  12:47  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  1:39 PM

 

December 2, 2018
Sunday forecast
:  Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 56 to 62      IL ~ 56 to 62        KY ~ 58 to 62       TN ~ 58 to 62
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flooding anticipated?  No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed: West at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No major impacts.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:52 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some increase in clouds.  I will be monitoring another rain system to the southwest.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 36 to 40      IL ~ 36 to 40        KY ~ 38 to 42       TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Monitor updates
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? I will be monitoring rain chances.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  No major concerns.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  1:53 AM Waning Gibbous
Moonset:  2:11 PM

 

December 3, 2018
Monday forecast
:  Cloudy.  Showers possible.  I am monitoring another cold front that may arrive Monday.  If so, rain would again become widespread.  Active pattern underway.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 48 to 56      IL ~ 48 to 55        KY ~ 53 to 56       TN ~ 54 to 56
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: N/A
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flooding anticipated?  No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Another rainmaker may approach from the southwest.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? Possibly some wet conditions.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 6:53 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low (30% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 38 to 44      IL ~ 38 to 44        KY ~ 38 to 44       TN ~ 38 to 44
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast:  30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  Unlikely
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? Unlikely
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Unlikely
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible?  No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans?  Rain showers could make for damp conditions for those who have to be outside.
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  2:57  AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  2:43 PM

 

December 4, 2018
Tuesday forecast
:   Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 43 to 46      IL ~43 to 46       KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~ 44 to 48
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 38 to 44
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:53 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (50% confidence)
Temperature range:  MO ~ 30 to 35      IL ~ 30 to 35         KY ~ 30 to 35       TN ~ 32 to 36
Wind chill (feels like) temperature forecast: 25 to 30
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flooding anticipated? No
Is accumulating snow or ice anticipated?  No
Is non-accumulating snow or ice anticipated? No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
? No
Wind direction and speed:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Will lightning be possible? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Will the weather impact my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 4:37 PM
Moonrise:  4:00 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset:  3:17 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

 

  .

 

Today through Monday:  A small risk of freezing rain or snow flurries tonight.  This would mainly be across the northern parts of southern Illinois.  Elsewhere, some light showers will be possible.  It may be warm enough area-wide for all rain (where there is precipitation).

 

The Weather Observatory will be holding two open houses for adults and children.  Weather permitting, the open house will be Saturday, December 1st.

 

 

Class of 1988 (Massac County High School).  I will be having a special open house for you on Friday, November 30th (the night before the other open house)

 

 

 

 

Here is the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook

The main rain event arrives Friday into Saturday morning.  A widespread one inch rain event is anticipated.  There could be pockets of higher totals.  This is especially true if precipitaton trains over the same area.

 

 

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If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

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You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Friday afternoon:  No severe thunderstorms.

Friday night through Saturday night:  Monitor updates.  An incoming storm system should bring thunderstorms to the region.  Some of the storms could produce strong winds.  There is a risk of severe thunderstorms, but that may remain mostly to our south.  I will be monitoring southern Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel, and western Tennessee.   Areas to the north will need to be monitored.

The main concern would be damaging winds and tornadoes.  There is plenty of shear with this system.

I will be carefully monitoring late Saturday morning and early afternoon.  If storms were to develop during that time period then they could be severe.  For now, it appears most of the rain will have ended by then.

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

 Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 .

 

  1.  Cold today.  Some clouds across portions of the region.  Sunny, elsewhere.
  2.  Monitoring light rain chances tonight and Thursday morning.
  3.  Widespread rain event develops Friday into Saturday morning.
  4.  We may dry out early Saturday.  That would be great for parades.
  5.  Another rain event on Monday/Tuesday.
  6.  Active pattern

 

Brrrr.  It is cold.  Some locations dipped into the 14 to 18-degree range last night.  January cold.  What a crazy November this has been.

We do have a mixture of sun and clouds in the region today.

You can see that wedge of clouds here on the morning visible satellite.

White milky areas are clouds.  I was hoping for a bit more sun today.  That didn’t work out.

 

 

It will be cold again today.  Temperatures will likely remain in the 30’s.  Quite unusual for this time of the year.  Par for the course.

I can’t completely rule out a flurry today, but nothing of significance.

We will have clouds tonight, as well.  A few light showers could develop overnight.  Temperatures could be marginal tonight for some light sleet or freezing rain.  This does not currently appear to be a big deal.  I will keep an eye on it.  Remember, it only takes a slight amount of freezing rain to cause problems.

The coldest area would be southeast Illinois and northern parts of western Kentucky (closer to Owensboro area).

We will have intervals of clouds on Thursday with perhaps a sprinkle or light shower.

The bigger weather story arrives Friday and Saturday.

A robust rainmaker is anticipated to push rapidly through the area from southwest to northeast.

Thankfully, this system is moving.  It will be moisture laden.

Locally moderate to heavy rain will be possible.  I suspect most areas will pick up around an inch of rain.  There will be pockets of higher totals.  Some of the guidance is painting two inches or more.

We will have gusty winds Saturday, as well.  Expect frequent gusts above 20 mph with some gusts above 30 mph.

Thunderstorms are likely to be mixed in with this system.  I can’t rule out a strong storm.  The greatest risk of severe weather may remain in Arkansas, western Tennessee, and southward.

This needs to be monitored as it is close enough to our region that any shift would change the outlook.

The main concern would be damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes.

There will be quite a bit of shear in the atmosphere, but the bulk of the rain may occur Friday night.  Instability is a bit greater on Saturday, but by that time the main system may be pushing away from our local area.

Bottom line, monitor updates concerning thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined as an area for severe weather.  The yellow is the greatest risk zone.  The dark green area is a smaller risk of severe weather.  The light green represents where lightning is possible.

Again, let’s monitor trends.  Our dew points are marginal for severe weather.  I usually like to see 58 degree and above dew points.  We might be close to that, but perhaps just below that number.

This outlook is for Friday and Friday night.

 

 

Here is the future-cast radar for Friday into Saturday morning.

Notice how quickly the rain exits Saturday morning.  I know many of you have outdoor plans.  Numerous towns are holding Christmas parades.  Fingers crossed on pushing the rain out of here.

 

 

I am monitoring another system on Monday and Tuesday.  Another one around December 8th.

GFS shows most of Monday/Tuesday’s precipitation remaining to our south.  I do have rain in the forecast.  This may fill in a bit.

 

 

 

 Updated November outlook for subscribers!

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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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Fall Outlook!

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November temperature and precipitation outlook

November  temperature outlook

November precipitation outlook

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 670

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the former Meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, New Jersey.  Gary Szatkowski, welcome to WeatherBrains!

 

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • The difficulty of precipitation-type winter forecasting
  • Snowmageddon-type event in New York similar to Atlanta/Birmingham event of 2014
  • Figuring out social media as a meteorologist
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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