Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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GEM model

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NAM model guidance.  This is the future-cast radar. You can see the band of rain on Saturday and then the wintry precip later Sunday afternoon and night.

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Temperatures for the weekend.  A bit of a roller-coaster.

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WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
7.  Long-range weather videos
8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
9.  Monthly outlooks.
10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

 

March 30, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Patchy morning fog.  Quite a few clouds.  We will likely see some breaks in the clouds today.  Clouds will thin from west to east.  Cool.  Patchy drizzle or light rain early today.  Precipitation diminishing as we move through the morning and afternoon hours.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~  54 to 58         KY ~ 54 to 58      TN ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty
Winds: North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise 6:43 AM

 

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:

A few scattered clouds early and then clearing.  Chilly.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 44        IL ~ 38 to 44        KY ~  38 to 44        TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~  5%       KY ~  5%          TN ~  5%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  Northwest becoming south and southwest overnight at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset  7:15 PM

 

March 31, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:   Strong and gusty winds.  A mix of sun and clouds early and then becoming cloudy.  Showers developing from the northwest to the southeast.  Arriving in the Farmington, Missouri area between 10 AM and 12 PM.  The line will then push southeast.  Metropolis/Paducah area around 2 PM to 4 PM.  It will then continue to push southeast.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~  56 to 62         KY ~ 58 to 64       TN ~  60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  A band of numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will push northwest to southeast during the late morning into the afternoon hours.
Winds: South winds becoming southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.  Gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.  It likely won’t rain all day.
Sunrise 6:41 AM

 

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Rain showers likely, especially early.  Chilly temperatures.  A slight chance the rain will mix with snow over our northern counties.  No accumulation.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 35        IL ~ 32 to 35        KY ~ 36 to 42       TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps a period of widespread rain early
Winds: South winds becoming southwest and eventually north/northwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars
Sunset  7:16 PM

 

April 1, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Easter
Forecast:  Cloudy early.  Rain may linger from the Bootheel towards the Kentucky/Tennessee border counties.  Keep this in mind.  Cloudy and chilly.   Rain developing during the afternoon and evening hours.  Rain may mix with or change to snow and sleet across portions of the area.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 44     IL ~  36 to 44         KY ~ 44 to 48       TN ~  45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% morning and then 60% afternoon      IL ~  60%  afternoon      KY ~ 40% morning and then  60% afternoon        TN ~ 50% morning and then 60% afternoon
Coverage of precipitation: Some rain possible from the Bootheel into the Kentucky/Tennessee border counties before 12 PM.  Becoming widespread during the afternoon and evening.
Winds: North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor snow chances.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars.
Sunrise 6:40 AM

 

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Scattered showers.  Snow or wintry mix possible.  Some of the guidance shows slushy accumulation across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  MO ~  28 to 34       IL ~ 28 to 34      KY ~  34 to 38       TN ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  70%       KY ~  70%          TN ~  70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread before 1 AM
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Monitor wintry mix/snow chances.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunset  7:16 PM

 

April 2, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:   A mix of sun and clouds.  Milder.  Early morning showers or rain/snow showers ending.  Isolated showers the rest of the day.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~  52 to 56         KY ~ 55 to 60       TN ~  56 to 62
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Northeast to east becoming east and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:38 AM

 

Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms again possible.  Not as cold.
Temperatures:  MO ~  48 to 54       IL ~ 46 to 50      KY ~  50 to 55       TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.  Some data shows widespread rain developing.
Winds:  South at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  A few strong storms possible Monday night and Tuesday.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunset  7:17 PM

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Friday through Tuesday:

Severe weather is not anticipated.  Lightning is possible Monday into Tuesday.  Strong storms possible Monday night/Tuesday.

I am monitoring the risk of severe weather Tuesday.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

1.  Cool today with a little bit of drizzle scattered around the area.  Patchy fog and clouds.
2.  Rain chances return as early as Saturday and will continue on/off into at least Tuesday.
3.  Rain may mix with snow Saturday night, Sunday, and Sunday night.  We will need to monitor accumulation chances (mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois).
4.  Locally heavy rain possible Monday night/Tuesday.
5.  Thunderstorms possible Monday night and Tuesday.  Perhaps a few strong storms.
6.  The April and May temperature outlooks have been updated (further down in this blog update)
7.  The April, May, and June temperature and precipitation outlook has also been updated.
8.  WeatherBrains has been updated (bottom of this page)
9.  In case you missed it!  Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk.  Click here to read that.

 

Don’t forget to utilize the local city interactive radars.

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

 

I am starting to wonder if warm weather will ever settle into our region.  We know it will but it sure is taking its time.

 

 

 

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

I do not have great news for the coming days.  Colder air is poised to push into our region over the next couple of days.  Lows tonight will dip into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s, 30’s on Saturday night, and upper 20’s to lower 30’s Sunday night.  Brrr for March and April standards.  I suppose if it was the middle of January we would be thrilled.

Of course, it won’t remain dry.  Par for the course!  More rain will arrive Saturday and that rain will linger into Tuesday.

We do not need more rain but more rain we will have.

Numerous showers are likely Saturday into Sunday night.  Rain coverage on Monday could be numerous, but guidance is not in total agreement on that.

The good news is that the rain will be spread out over several days.  Thus, flooding is unlikely through Sunday night.  We will need to monitor heavier showers Monday into Tuesday.  If thunderstorms develop then the flooding risk will increase.

It will be cold enough that the rain could mix with snow Saturday night into Sunday night.  The ground is warm and the roads are warm.  I can’t completely rule out light accumulation, but overall the odds favor no-impact from this snow event.  The greatest concern would be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

If temperatures fall into the upper 20’s (across portions of the region) Sunday night, then we will need to watch bridges.  Bridges will always freeze first.  At this time, widespread issues appear unlikely.   If nothing else, it is just a reminder that we can’t shake the cold temperatures.

 

MONDAY and TUESDAY

Thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  A few of the thunderstorms could be intense with gusty winds and small hail.  Monitor updates.

Warmer air will attempt to push into our region Monday into Tuesday and that will mean instability returns.  Instability would mean lightning.

I know we don’t care for the cold weather but it is keeping the severe weather risk low.  I suppose that is the bright side of all of this.

We should dry out Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

I am monitoring the potential of another frost/freeze Wednesday night.  Yes, another cold snap.

Let’s take a look at future-cast radar and rain totals.

 

FUTURE-CAST RADAR

First, let’s take a look at the NAM model guidance.  One model of several that I look at when forecasting.

Green would be rain.  Blue is snow.  Red and pink would be a wintry mix.

Timestamp upper left.

 

 

Now, let’s look at the GFS guidance.  Another model.

Timestamp upper left.

 

 

Let’s take a look at temperatures.

Timestamp upper left.  This animation takes us through Monday 1 PM.

 

 

SNOW CHANCES

Some of the guidance does show snow sticking Saturday night into Sunday night.  This is a long-shot.  

I will monitor trends over the next 24 hours.  If temperatures are slightly colder then the chance of a slushy accumulation would increase.  I know, I know, it is late March and almost April.

NAM model guidance shows very little snow.

 

 

The Canadian model shows a band of snow across Missouri and Illinois.  Again, this is just a model.

 

 

GFS model.  Another model’s opinion on the snow risk this weekend.

 

 

Again, for now, the forecast is for little or no snow accumulation.  Monitor updates in case the forecast changes.

 

RAIN TOTALS

How about rain totals?  Let’s look at the NAM, GFS, and the WPC/NOAA rain accumulation graphics.

 

NAM guidance

 

GFS guidance through 1 PM Monday

 

GFS guidance through Wednesday

 

WPC/NOAA Seven day rain totals

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 636

Joining us from Canada to talk about weather folklore is Cindy Day. Cindy began her career at CFRA radio based in Ottawa where she was the host of Ottawa AM program. Then she is known for starting, Weather by Day, her own business in which she provided seasonal forecasts, radio reports and climate data for Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec. Cindy has worked for CTV Atlantic from September, 2007, to December, 2017. She appeared on CTV News at 5, CTV News at 6 and the Late News at 11:30 p.m. Her exceptional work made her win a lot of fans and friends.

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

This show features a full house of storm chasing legends. This includes Jeff Piotrowski and Tim Marshall.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

• Extremes: 102 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Estcourt Station, ME
• Severe weather in Texas today and Tuesday
• Spreading toward the Texas Coast and into Lower Mississippi River Valley Wed.
• Southeast US got wedged today
• Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
• and more!

 

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ANNOUNCEMENT!

 

I am working on a few new items for us.

As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.

There was never a plan.

All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.

From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.

We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.

Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.

Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.

Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.

That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.

Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.

Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.

It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.

Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.

Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.

That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.

About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.

The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.

Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.

Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.

Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.

I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.

Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.

Here is what we are going to bring you.

1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.

2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.

3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.

4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.

5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.

Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.

With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?

6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.

Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.

You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.

Subscribers will receive the following:

You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).

Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.

The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.

We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.

 

 

New schedule

 

Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.

Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on.  This one is called WeatherOne.  You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab.  Make sure WeatherOne is on (green).  Green is on.  Red is off.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.