Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 22, 2018: Unsettled weather. Non-subscriber update.

 

Quick afternoon update.

The main concern is Saturday’s weather.  I know many of you have plans.  There are going to be a wide range of temperatures and rain totals.

The reason for the big differences will be the track of an area of low pressure and a warm front.

Widespread rain will occur north and east of the warm front.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur south and west of the warm front.

It appears the warm front will bisect the region.  That makes for a tricky forecast.

If you have outdoor plans then monitor updates and radars.  Have a plan B Saturday and then hope for the best.  Rain will certainly be on the radar screen.  The coverage will be the question county to county.

Let me show you a few graphics.

If you have plans Saturday this is the best course of action.

 

 

 

 

Here is the latest future-cast radar from the NAM guidance.  You can see how the rain moves through the region Friday night and Saturday (some before then, as well).

Notice how the heaviest rain is centered east of the Mississippi River.

Timestamp upper left.

 

 

Here is the temperature map for Saturday afternoon.  Yes, what an easy forecast this will be!

Forty-nine degrees in Mt Vernon, Illinois and in the sixties in Carbondale, Illinois.  There is a warm front in there somewhere!!!

 

 

We may have gusty winds Saturday.  This NAM model is likely a bit overdone, but you get the general idea.  Some wind gusts between 20 and 30 will be possible.

 

 

Here is the NAM model guidance rain forecast through Saturday night.

Notice that the heaviest rain is located over our eastern and northeastern counties.

 

 

Here is the GFS model guidance rain total forecast.  Similar idea.  Heavy east and lighter west.

 

 

We do have a chance of thunderstorms Friday night and again Saturday.  There is a chance of isolated reports of small hail.  The light green zone is the general thunderstorm region.  Sub-severe.  The darker green zone is where a few severe thunderstorms may occur.

 

 

Check out the winter storm watch and warning zone from North Dakota into northern Kentucky!  One to eight inches of snow is likely to occur along that line.

 

 

 

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

  1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
  2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  7.  Long-range weather videos
  8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
  9.  Monthly outlooks.
  10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

March 22, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Cool.  A 20% to 30% chance of a shower.  The best chance of a few showers will be across the northern half of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois.  Clouds will increase through the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~  55 to 60          IL ~ 50 to 55        KY ~  54 to 58      TN ~  54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Winds:  East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:54 AM

Radars:

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds.  A period of rain showers moving in from the NW and moving SE.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 42        IL ~ 36 to 42         KY ~  36 to 42      TN ~ 38 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps a period of higher coverage.
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  7:08 PM

 

March 23, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.  Perhaps an afternoon thunderstorm.  Greatest rain coverage across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  There will be a chance of showers just about everywhere in the area.
Temperatures:  MO ~  55 to 60        IL ~ 52 to 58        KY ~  55 to 60     TN ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~ 40% to 50%          TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Winds:  South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would suggest monitoring updates and radars.  There will be rain in the region.
Sunrise 6:53 AM

 

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  A chance of showers.  Thunderstorms possible.  A few storms could produce small hail.
Temperatures:  MO ~  46 to 52        IL ~ 44 to 48         KY ~  44 to 48      TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps becoming numerous
Winds:  South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Small hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  Severe weather is unlikely.  Hail is possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates/radars.
Sunset  7:08 PM

 

March 24, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  LARGE temperature spread across the region.  Warm to cool.  There are some ingredients for strong storms Saturday.  Monitor updates.  Cloudy.  Scattered showers in southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, and northwest Tennessee.  A thunderstorm possible.  Scattered showers for far western Kentucky (western seven counties).  Rain likely with some isolated embedded thunderstorms from southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Rain coverage will likely be the greatest east of the Mississippi River.
Temperatures:  MO ~  65 to 72  (warmest near Poplar Bluff)      IL ~ 48 to 68 (cooler towards Mt Vernon vs Metropolis)        KY ~  50 to 66 (coolest towards Evansville and warmest towards Wickliffe)      TN ~  66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30% to 40%     IL ~  40% to 70%  (the 40% would be near the MS River and 70% would be southeast Illinois).      KY ~ 60%          TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to widespread depending on the path of the area of low pressure.  Rain coverage will be least in the Poplar Bluff, MO area and greatest in southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile of western Kentucky.
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Becoming west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise 6:51 AM

 

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain ending.  Turning cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~  34 to 40        IL ~ 34 to 38        KY ~  38 to 44         TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  40%          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and then becoming scattered
Winds:  Winds becoming west and northwest area-wide.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning early in the evening.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B early and then monitor radars.
Sunset  7:09 PM

 

March 25, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A slight chance of a shower.
Temperatures:  MO ~  53 to 56      IL ~ 53 to 56        KY ~  54 to 58      TN ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~20%          TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered.
Winds:  East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Believe it will mostly be dry.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:50 AM

 

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy.  Isolated showers possible, mainly across southeast Missouri.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 44        IL ~ 38 to 44         KY ~  40 to 45         TN ~ 44 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset  7:10 PM

 

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Today and tonight: Severe weather is not anticipated.

Friday through Sunday: There is a risk of lightning and hail Friday night and Saturday.  The main concern will be elevated thunderstorms.  These thunderstorms will likely remain below severe levels.

There are several ingredients for severe weather Saturday, but just not sure we have enough CAPE.  It is not a perfect setup for severe thunderstorms.  Let’s keep an eye on it.  If parameters change then updates will be necessary.

For now, the main concern will be lightning and perhaps some reports of small hail.

I am closely monitoring the potential of showers and thunderstorms next week.  At this time, it appears heavy rain is the main concern.  Grounds remain fairly saturated from recent rains.  Flooding could be a concern, but it is still a bit early to know that.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

  1.  A bit milder today compared to recent days.
  2.  Rain chances increase late this afternoon and will continue into next week (on and off).
  3.  Monitoring thunderstorm chances and the threat of heavy rain next week.
  4.  Monitor Saturday updates if you have outdoor plans.
  5.  In case you missed it!  Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk.  Click here to read that.

 

Highlights

What has changed over the last 24 hours?

Weather Hazards.

Certainties and uncertainties

 

The big weather story over the coming days will be rain chances between later this afternoon and through next week.

A series of weather disturbances are going to bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

The good news is that I currently do not have snow or ice in the forecast.  It is spring, but as we have recently witnessed, that does not seem to matter this year.

The East Coast is dealing with its fourth Nor’easter in a row.  Feet of snow in some areas.

Temperatures over the coming days are going to take us for a ride.  A roller-coaster ride.  There could be a 20 to 30-degree temperature spread Saturday.  That will be because of an area of low-pressure dropping into our region from the northwest and a warm front.

The warm front will segment temperatures in the 60’s and perhaps 70’s from temperatures in the 40’s.  If you end up on the cold side of the front then you will definitely know it!

At this time it appears that portions of southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee may end up on the warm side of the front Saturday.  Portions of southeast Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky will end up on the cold side of the front.

I will post some maps below.  Those will illustrate what is anticipated.

There is also going to be a large range of rainfall totals tonight through Sunday.  Southeast Missouri is likely to receive 0.10″ to 0.30″.  Locally higher if thunderstorms occur.

Portions of southern Illinois and western Kentucky will receive 0.40″ to 0.80″ with local amounts topping one inch.  Again, I will post some maps below to illustrate the forecast idea.

I do not expect flooding through Sunday, but flooding chances may increase next week with heavier rain possible.

The severe weather risk over the next three days is small.  I can’t rule out some hail Friday night and Saturday.  If we have hail then the size should be nickel or smaller.  As always, monitor updates.

Let’s take a look at temperatures over the coming days.  This animation will give you the general idea.

LARGE temperature swings because of frontal boundaries in the region.

These temperatures are from the GFS model guidance

 

 

Let’s look at future-cast radar from both the GFS model and the NAM model guidance.

The item I wanted you to notice is Saturday’s rain coverage.

Confidence is lower than normal on rain coverage Saturday.

I know many of you have outdoor events.  This poses a problem.

I believe rain coverage will be the highest east of the Mississippi River.  The further east you travel, the greater the rain coverage.  That means Evansville may end up with greater rain coverage than say, Cape Girardeau, Missouri.

If you have outdoor plans Saturday then monitor radars and updates.  Plan on rain and hope for the best.

There will also be a chance of thunderstorms Saturday.  This is especially true south and west of the warm front.  The warm front should slice through southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

The exact placement of the front will be key to both rain coverage and temperatures.

Let me show you the NAM and the GFS 1 PM temperature map for Saturday.

NAM model.  1 PM Saturday temperature graphic.

 

 

GFS model temperature forecast.  1 PM Saturday.

The GFS has an even sharper boundary than the NAM.  Crazy temperature gradient.

 

 

This large temperature gradient will lead to overrunning precipitation.  The warm air will rise up and over the cool layer (north of the warm front) and produce widespread rain and perhaps some thunderstorms.

Heavy snow will fall across portions of central and northern Illinois and Indiana.  A total of 3 to 6 inches of snow is anticipated.  Locally higher totals.  Wet snow!  If you are traveling north then monitor road conditions Saturday.

GRS future-cast radar.  Green and dark green would be rain and moderate rain.  Yellow is moderate rain.

Blue is snow.

Timestamp is located in the upper left hand portion of the graphic animations.

 

 

 

 

Let’s take a look at potential rain totals from the GFS, the NAM, and NOAA/WPC.

GFS model rain totals through Sunday 1 PM.  Notice the gradient of rain totals across our region.

 

Here is the NAM model guidance rain totals forecast through Sunday 1 PM.

 

 

NOAA/WPC rain totals forecast through Sunday morning.

 

 

Here are the NOAA/WPC rain totals forecast through next Thursday morning.  There is the potential of quite a bit of rain in the region between this afternoon and next Thursday.

There could be bands of higher totals.  This will need to be monitored and fine-tuned.

 

 

 

 

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 633

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

t’s a full house for this episode of WeatherBrains with representatives from a number of weather-related podcasts. Joining us are Becky DePodwin, Ice Station Housman, Scotty Powell from Carolina Weather Gang, Castle Williams,

WeatherHype

, Mark Jelinek, What is it About the Weather, and Phil Johnson of Storm Front Freaks Podcast. This show marks National Weather Podcast Month.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 98 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Cut Bank, MT
  • The creative outlet that is podcasts and how they have changed over time
  • The importance of providing good content in podcasting
  • 25th Anniversary of Blizzard of 1993
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more

.

 

ANNOUNCEMENT!

 

I am working on a few new items for us.

As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.

There was never a plan.

All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.

From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.

We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.

Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.

Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.

Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.

That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.

Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.

Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.

It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.

Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.

Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.

That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.

About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.

The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.

Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.

Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.

Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.

I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.

Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.

Here is what we are going to bring you.

1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.

2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.

3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.

4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.

5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.

Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.

With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?

6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.

Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.

You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.

Subscribers will receive the following:

You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).

Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.

The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.

We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.

 

 

New schedule

 

Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.

Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on.  This one is called WeatherOne.  You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab.  Make sure WeatherOne is on (green).  Green is on.  Red is off.

 

 


We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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