Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 21, 2018: Chilly today and tonight. Non-subscriber update.

 

Good afternoon, everyone.

I am monitoring Saturday.  There are some signs that rain activity could be less in coverage than earlier anticipated.  Still, low confidence in the details.

What I have noticed is that model guidance has trended a bit further east with the main band of rain.

Instead of a complete wash-out for the whole area, it would end up being scattered showers for some of us.

The greatest chance of widespread rain will be from Mt Vernon, Illinois into northwest Kentucky and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  North and east of that line should have quite a bit of rain on radar.

It is south and west of that line that is a bit more uncertain.

Let’s keep an eye on it.  I would definitely have alternative plans Saturday if you planned on being outdoors.

This is not a slam dunk forecast and any shift in the area of low pressure would mean the forecast numbers would change.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar.  One band of light showers might move through the area late Thursday night and Friday morning.  Then a lull.  Then more rain Friday night into Saturday.

The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation.  Click to enlarge.

 

 

 

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

  1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
  2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  7.  Long-range weather videos
  8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
  9.  Monthly outlooks.
  10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

March 21, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Cool.  Any remaining morning rain or snow showers should have come to an end.
Temperatures:  MO ~  50 to 55          IL ~ 46 to 52        KY ~  48 to 54      TN ~  50 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered early in the morning over our eastern counties.
Winds:  Northwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  There could be some morning slick spots from the overnight rain/snow.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:56 AM

 

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cold.  Frost and/or freeze possible.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~  28 to 34        IL ~ 28 to 34         KY ~  30 to 34       TN ~  32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost or freeze possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  7:07 PM

 

March 22, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Cool.  A 20% of a shower.  Clouds will increase through the day.
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 60          IL ~ 54 to 56        KY ~  54 to 58      TN ~  54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Winds:  East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.  Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:54 AM

 

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A period of rain showers moving in from the NW and moving SE.
Temperatures:  MO ~  36 to 42        IL ~ 36 to 42         KY ~  36 to 42      TN ~ 38 to 42
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  50%       KY ~  50%          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps a period of higher coverage.
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph becoming southeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  7:08 PM

 

March 23, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~  55 to 60        IL ~ 53 to 58        KY ~  55 to 60     TN ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~  40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds:  South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updates.
Sunrise 6:53 AM

 

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  A chance of showers.  Thunderstorms possible.  A few storms could produce small hail.
Temperatures:  MO ~  45 to 50        IL ~ 44 to 48         KY ~  44 to 48      TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps becoming numerous
Winds:  South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Small hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset  7:08 PM

 

March 24, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  There are some ingredients for strong storms Saturday.  Monitor updates.  Cloudy.  Scattered showers for southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, and northwest Tennessee.  A thunderstorm possible.  Scattered showers for far western Kentucky (western seven counties).  Rain likely with some thunderstorms from southeast Illinois into northwest Kentucky and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~  63 to 67  (warmest near Poplar Bluff)      IL ~ 54 to 60 (cooler towards Mt Vernon vs Metropolis)        KY ~  60 to 64      TN ~  63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~  60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~  40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread depending on the path of the area of low pressure.
Winds:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Becoming west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise 6:51 AM

 

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  Rain ending.  Turning cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~  38 to 44        IL ~ 36 to 44         KY ~  38 to 44         TN ~ 43 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~  60%       KY ~  60%          TN ~  60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early and then becoming scattered
Winds: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Perhaps lightning early in the evening.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset  7:09 PM

 

March 25, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  A slight chance of a shower.
Temperatures:  MO ~  55 to 60      IL ~ 54 to 58        KY ~  55 to 60      TN ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~30%          TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered.
Winds:  East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:50 AM

 

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A  chance of showers.
Temperatures:  MO ~  42 to 48        IL ~ 38 to 44         KY ~  40 to 46         TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: East at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset  7:10 PM

 

 

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

Wednesday through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.   I will monitor thunderstorm chances Friday night and Saturday.  A few storms could produce small hail Friday night.  This would mainly be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

  1.  Chilly today and tonight.
  2.  Frost/freeze possible tonight.
  3.  Rain chances by the weekend.
  4.  In case you missed it!  Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk.  Click here to read that.

 

Highlights

What has changed over the last 24 hours?

Weather Hazards.

Certainties and uncertainties

 

I fairly quiet weather day ahead of us.  Many of you received snow Tuesday.  Spring snow!  Go figure.

Snow accumulation occurred over portions of southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Thankfully, ground and road temperatures were warm.  That helped keep problems to a minimum in most areas.

Areas to our east and northeast received heavier snow.  Several inches of the white gold.

Here is a screen grab from the NWS chat.  Check out some of these totals.  Ummm wow.

11.5″ in Bullitt County, Kentucky.  Amazing.  This was a big winter storm for portions of the Ohio Valley.

 

 

It will be chilly today, especially in areas with snow on the ground.  For the most part, temperatures will rise into the 45 to 52 degree range across the region.  Areas with snow may stay in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.

Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.  Not all that spring-like.

Another frost and freeze will be possible tonight into Thursday morning.  Lows will dip into the upper 20’s and lower 30’s.

Advisories and warnings for sub-freezing temperatures cover the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.  Why not further north?  These advisories and warnings are based on the growing season.  It does not mean they will be colder than the rest of us.  It just means their growing season is a bit earlier.

Thursday will be a quiet weather day.  A few clouds.  Temperatures will likely pop into the 50’s.

A series of weather disturbances will impact the region late Thursday night into next week.

Temperatures will be warm enough for an all rain event this time around.

There will be a few showers late Thursday night and scattered showers Friday.  For the most part, it may end up dry during this time frame.

Rain chances ramp up rapidly Friday night into Saturday as an area of low pressure moves into the region.  This low will move from the northwest to southeast.  A bit of an odd path for this time of the year.

It appears that widespread rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will accompany this low-pressure center.

There could be locally heavy rain in a few spots.

Heavy snow is possible across portions of central and northern Illinois into Indiana.  This would be outside of my forecast area, but if you are traveling north then be aware of possible road impacts.

Here is the snowfall forecast.  This may shift around a bit.  It could be a bit further north or south.  Either way, it currently does not appear that it is an issue for our area.

Again, this is the weekend system.  Ignore that snow in our area (that is from the system last night).

 

 

Rain chances will lessen Saturday night and Sunday.  Sunday may end up dry.  I did mention a few showers, but overall Sunday should be dry.

Rain chances ramp up again as we move into next week and the following week.  Unfortunately, a heavy rain event is possible next week.

I am monitoring Monday, Tuesday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday of next week for rain chances.  I will fine-tune the forecast as we move closer to each event.

The long-range charts show a series of weather events over the coming 20 days.

We may have to deal with heavy rain and intense thunderstorms.  We are moving towards our peak of time of the year (one of them) for severe weather.  Let’s keep a close eye on the charts.

Let’s take a look at some charts.

Let’s look at the future-cast radar images from the GFS model guidance.  This takes us into next week.  Keep that in mind.

The timestamp is located in the upper left corner of the animation.

 

 

Now let’s look at the higher resolution NAM guidance (it does not go out as far in time)

 

 

How much rain is anticipated?

Notice that all the guidance paints the heaviest totals over our northern and northeastern,eastern counties.

GFS model rain totals forecast

 

 

GEM model rain totals forecast

 

 

 

NAM model rain totals forecast

 

 

 

NOAA/WPC rain totals forecast

 

 

Looking at the seven-day rain totals forecast from WPC, you can see that more rain is anticipated past the Saturday event.

 

 

Let’s look at the long-range GFS and EC model guidance high and low-temperature forecast.  Keep in mind, there is no way this will be exact.  Models aren’t that great.  It does, however, give you a general idea.

 

GFS model high and low-temperature forecast

 

 

EC model high and low-temperature forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 633

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

t’s a full house for this episode of WeatherBrains with representatives from a number of weather-related podcasts. Joining us are Becky DePodwin, Ice Station Housman, Scotty Powell from Carolina Weather Gang, Castle Williams,

WeatherHype

, Mark Jelinek, What is it About the Weather, and Phil Johnson of Storm Front Freaks Podcast. This show marks National Weather Podcast Month.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 98 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Cut Bank, MT
  • The creative outlet that is podcasts and how they have changed over time
  • The importance of providing good content in podcasting
  • 25th Anniversary of Blizzard of 1993
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more

.

 

ANNOUNCEMENT!

 

I am working on a few new items for us.

As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.

There was never a plan.

All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.

From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.

We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.

Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.

Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.

Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.

That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.

Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.

Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.

It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.

Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.

Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.

That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.

About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.

The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.

Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.

Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.

Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.

I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.

Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.

Here is what we are going to bring you.

1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.

2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.

3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.

4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.

5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.

Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.

With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?

6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.

Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.

You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.

Subscribers will receive the following:

You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).

Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.

The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.

We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.

 

 

New schedule

 

Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.

Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on.  This one is called WeatherOne.  You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab.  Make sure WeatherOne is on (green).  Green is on.  Red is off.

 

 


We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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