Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

March 17, 2018: Roller-coaster ride of temperatures.

Sorry for the late update.  It was a long night dealing with the hail storms in southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

  1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
  2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  7.  Long-range weather videos
  8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
  9.  Monthly outlooks.
  10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Turning colder.  A 20% of a shower over mainly western Kentucky.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 36 to 44      IL ~ 35 to 40        KY ~  37 to 42        TN ~  38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Winds:  North at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  7:03 PM

 

March 18, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Much cooler.  Intervals of clouds.  Widely scattered shower chances will increase from southwest to northeast late in the day or towards evening.
Temperatures:  MO ~  54 to 58         IL ~ 52 to 56          KY ~  52 to 56      TN ~  55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered late in the day and evening.
Winds:  East and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps a few wet roads.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 7:00 AM

 

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Becoming cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  A few storms could be heavy in southeast Missouri.
Temperatures:  MO ~  42 to 46       IL ~ 40 to 45          KY ~  43 to 46       TN ~  44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Winds:  East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates, especially across southeast Missouri.  I can’t rule out some hail or strong winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
Sunset  7:04 PM

 

March 19, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Monitor updates concerning strong to severe thunderstorms storms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 64          IL ~ 52 to 62 Cooler Mt Vernon vs Metropolis          KY ~  55 to 62 (coolest near Owensboro)        TN ~  60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 70%      IL ~ 70%       KY ~ 70%          TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Winds:  East at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds may become southeast.  Winds variable with fronts in the region.  During the afternoon and evening, the winds will become more westerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the potential of strong thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Sunrise 6:59 AM

 

Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Turning colder.  Breezy.  Rain chances will be highest early in the night and lesser chances as we move through the night.  Monitor updates concerning the potential of strong thunderstorms.  Turning colder.  Breezy.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 36        IL ~ 32 to 38          KY ~  36 to 42       TN ~  38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%      IL ~ 60%       KY ~ 60%          TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Winds:  North and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor updates concerning strong storms along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset  7:05 PM

 

March 20, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~  44 to 48         IL ~ 43 to 46        KY ~  44 to 48       TN ~  45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.  Low confidence.
Winds:  North at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:57 AM

 

Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds.  A slight chance of flurries.  Cold.  Frost and/or freeze possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 28 to 34        IL ~ 28 to 34         KY ~  28 to 34      TN ~  30 to 35
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~  10%          TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost or freeze possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  7:06 PM

 

March 21, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~  50 to 55          IL ~ 46 to 52        KY ~  48 to 54      TN ~  50 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  Northwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:56 AM

 

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cold.  Frost and/or freeze possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~  28 to 34        IL ~ 28 to 34         KY ~  30 to 34       TN ~  32 to 36
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost or freeze possible
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  7:07 PM

 

March 22, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
Temperatures:  MO ~  50 to 55          IL ~ 50 to 55        KY ~  50 to 55      TN ~  50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise 6:54 AM

 

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasing clouds.  I will monitor precipitation chances late at night.
Temperatures:  MO ~  32 to 36        IL ~ 32 to 36         KY ~  32 to 36      TN ~ 34 to 38
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  10%          TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor
Winds:  Variable at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset  7:08 PM

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

 

Today and tonight:  No severe weather.

 

 

 Sunday:  Severe weather is unlikely through early afternoon.  We need to monitor late Sunday night into Monday evening.  Thunderstorms are possible.  The strongest storms may remain south of our region, but it could be close.

Areas from the Missouri Bootheel into the Kentucky and Tennessee State line should monitor updates.  If the low tracks further north then we will need to monitor areas further north.

Let’s keep an eye on Sunday night (late) for a few strong thunderstorms over southeast Missouri.

Monday night through Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

    1.  The area experienced a hailstorm late Friday night into early Saturday morning.
    2.  Mostly dry tonight into early Sunday afternoon.
    3.  Rain chances increase late Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday night and Monday.
    4.  In case you missed it!  Here is the Facebook thread with some exciting new announcements concerning Weather Talk.  Click here to read that.

A quick weather update.  Sorry for being a bit late today.  I had to catch up on my sleep.

I was up until 2 AM last night dealing with a hail storm.

A supercell thunderstorm tracked across southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.  Hail was reported in at least nine counties.

The largest hail fell over northern Graves County, Kentucky.  Golf ball size hail was reported.

Here is a photograph from northern Graves County, Kentucky.

 

 

Here was the path of the hail storm.

 

 

Here is a 3D view of the storm when it was producing golf ball size hail.

 

 

Here is a radar screen grab of the storm.  I added some notes.

 

 

The hail accumulated 2 to 4 inches in Oran, Missouri.

 

 

You can view the radar animation and additional storm photographs by watching this video that I put together.

 

 

Here are some of the text messages that I sent out.

I made an error with Marshall County.  I typed the message and apparently did not hit send.  I am putting in safeguards to make sure that does not happen again.

 

 

Temperatures today varied GREATLY across the region.  If you remember, that was the forecast.

Temperatures were several degrees warmer than anticipated.  Widespread 70’s were reports from the Missouri Bootheel into portions of western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.

Meanwhile, temperatures across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois were only in the 40’s and 50’s.

2 PM temperature map.  What a spread!

 

 

Rain chances tonight will be less than 20%.  Temperatures will turn colder from northwest to southeast as a front pushes into the region.

Most of Sunday should be dry.  I can’t rule out some afternoon showers but I think most of you will remain on the dry side.

Rain chances ramp up Sunday night into Monday night.

A strong system is forecast to develop to our southwest and move eastward.  An area of low pressure will deepen over Arkansas.

The track of this low is key to your backyard forecast.

Areas south and southeast of the low will experience thunderstorms.  Some of the storms will be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

Areas north and northeast of the low will experience rain.  Chilly rain for some.  I can’t rule out thunder north of the warm front.

The greatest risk of severe weather will be to our south and southeast.  That does not mean we are out of the woods.

This will need to be closely monitored.  If you live in the Missouri Bootheel and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee border then you will want to pay attention to changing forecasts.

If the low tracks slightly further north then thunderstorms would be more likely in some of my forecast counties.  Severe weather would also be possible.  Again, that depends on the track of the area of low pressure.

Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s severe weather outlook.  Keep in mind that this will need adjusting.  They will update it several more times over the next 24 hours.

The light green zone is where thunderstorms are possible, but likely not severe.  The dark green zone is a level one out of five risk.  One being the lowest risk.  The yellow is a level two out of five risk.

 

 

Rain and thunderstorms will end Monday night.  It will turn colder as we move into the mid-week time frame.  As a matter of fact, frost and/or freeze conditions are possible Tuesday and Wednesday night.  Just what you did not want to hear.

Here is the future-cast radar from the NAM model guidance.

The timestamp is located in the upper left.

 

 

Tuesday into Thursday should be mostly dry.  Models have occasionally shower some light showers or snow showers during this time period.  Confidence in precipitation occurring Tuesday into Thursday is low.

I am monitoring shower chances as we push into Friday and Saturday.

 

 

 

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 633

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

t’s a full house for this episode of WeatherBrains with representatives from a number of weather-related podcasts. Joining us are Becky DePodwin, Ice Station Housman, Scotty Powell from Carolina Weather Gang, Castle Williams,

WeatherHype

, Mark Jelinek, What is it About the Weather, and Phil Johnson of Storm Front Freaks Podcast. This show marks National Weather Podcast Month.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 98 at Rio Grande Village, TX, and -7 at Cut Bank, MT
  • The creative outlet that is podcasts and how they have changed over time
  • The importance of providing good content in podcasting
  • 25th Anniversary of Blizzard of 1993
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more

.

 

ANNOUNCEMENT!

 

I am working on a few new items for us.

As always, I am grateful for all of you and the support you bring to my passion.

There was never a plan.

All of this started with a severe weather email list of ten or twenty people after the killer 2003 tornadoes. That grew to what you see today.

From that tornado, the Shadow Angel Foundation was born. We delivered hundreds of teddy bears to Pulaski, Massac, and Pope Counties. The “storm” bears went to Head Start, Kindergarten, and first graders. Included with the bears was a package of information for parents on how to talk to their child about tornadoes and severe weather.

We then worked with the Metropolis Planet on producing the Terror in the Night tornado book. The book was filled with personal accounts of that horrible night. Many people said the book helped bring closure.

Since then we have delivered thousands of teddy bears to Child Watch and Pasac. The counselors use the teddy bears to help the children feel safe.

Soon after that, the late Kent King (radio DJ and emergency manager) asked me to cover weather for McCracken County OEM/DES. I was COM 10 on the scanner feeds.

Ed Duff, with McCracken County Rescue, now utilizes my services during severe weather events along with two other local counties. They receive one on one attention during events.

That led me to Sue Henry with the American Red Cross where I was able to help during Hurricane Katrina and Rita. An experience that changed my life.

Around that time social media exploded onto the scene. My personal Facebook page quickly filled up with 5000 people. The limit Facebook allows for personal pages.

Facebook then started pages. I was able to make a page just for weather.

It was soon after that that I bought a portion of my family farm back. We built my house and the Weather Observatory.

Jason Darnall helped put together an amazing weather center. Many hours of work.

Then the Paducah Sun then asked me to do weather for them.

That led to the amazing team at Innovations Branding House. They produced my Weather Observatory website.

About four years ago there was a falling out with some local meteorologists. It bothered me so much that I almost quit weather.

The Paducah Sun even ran a story that I was taking a break from weather. I was taking a year off.

Several other local meteorologists then came to me and told me to brush it off. They encouraged me to start a weather business. They explained what I could bring to the local weather table.

Soon after that, as fate would have it, Preston Ursini and the Fire Horn team asked me to think about producing text messages during severe weather. That led to Weather Talk. That then led to the Weather Talk app.

Had it not been for that low point, I don’t think Weather Talk would have ever come to be. Life is funny like that. Something bad turned into something good.

I often times tell people that I have the best Facebook friends, enthusiasts, and followers. It is rare that someone complains on the weather page.

Some of you have basically become like family to me. When severe weather strikes it becomes personal to both you and me.

Here is what we are going to bring you.

1. We are coming out with a major app update for subscribers. We plan on having radar in the app, as well as your usual app/text messages to the daily blog, video, and Facebook updates.

2. We are completely revamping the WeatherTalk website. Preston Ursini, from The Fire Horn, is working alongside Innovations Branding House to complete this task. The Fire Horn is who I partner with to make all of this work.

3. I am going to try and stick to a daily schedule. That way everyone knows when to expect an update. See the comment section.

4. Many of you have asked me to do Facebook Live video updates during winter storms and severe weather outbreaks. I have spent the last week learning how to use OBS studio software. This software will allow me to deliver you Facebook Live events. You will get your wish.

5. We are moving towards a flat subscription fee of $5 a month. Everyone that is paying $3 a month will be grandfathered in. If you want to voluntarily upgrade to the $5 plan then that would be great. We will roll this out when the new website is finished.

Right now we have a $3, $5, and $10 plan. The only difference is how many cell phone numbers you can add.

With the $5 a month plan we will let everyone have up to seven phone numbers. That should cover your family members. Sound good?

6. I have streamlined the digital media blog. That would be the talk.weathertalk.com site. You will find that is has been organized.

Remember, I work for you. I don’t work for television or radio. I am your employee.

You have a personal meteorologist. And, as everyone knows, I put my heart and soul into this.

Subscribers will receive the following:

You may subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

1. The app/text updates during tornado outbreaks and all other weather events.
2. Rapid-fire tornado app/text messages. I send out numerous updates as I track the tornado. Some of you can testify to these rapid-fire tornado messages.
3. Daily weather forecast sent to your app/text.
4. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on non-severe weather days. Instead of waiting around for me to post a new Facebook thread you can receive it in your app/text.
5. Link sent to the app/text to the daily blog and Facebook updates on severe weather or winter storm days.
6. We are updating the weather map page on the website. That page will have thousands of daily weather maps for you to access.
7. I answer every email you send. I try to answer every private message you send to me.
8. We run three hour live feeds during severe weather where we attempt to answer as many questions as possible. Same for winter storms.
9. You receive access to special short and long-range video updates from the Bamwx team (who help me with daily videos).
10. You receive access to special short, long-range, and seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks.
11. Your subscription fee helps six local charities (see comment section for more information).

Normal monthly out of pocket operating costs (see comment section) are around $2000.00.

The service I provide is unique. I don’t believe there is anything else like it in the country. Not for this price and not for the volume of information you receive.

We hope to have the new app and website finished soon. Watch for announcements.

 

 

New schedule

 

Example of some of my rapid-fire tornado app/text messages.

Make sure you have app/text notification ONE turned on.  This one is called WeatherOne.  You can make sure that is on by signing into your www.weathertalk.com account and clicking the personal notification settings tab.  Make sure WeatherOne is on (green).  Green is on.  Red is off.

 

 


We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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