Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

 

 

 

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

June 18, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Hot and muggy.   Heat index 100 to 105 (locally higher).
Temperatures:  MO ~ 90 to 95    IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

A complicated forecast this week.  Weak to moderate impulses will push through the region.  Each of these will spark shower and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms will be heavy.  Timing and coverage of the precipitation will be tricky, at best, to forecast. 

Changeable forecast numbers are likely.

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy.  Isolated thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 10:59 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

June 18, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 90 to 95      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 11  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 75       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 12:06 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:34 AM

 

June 18, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Thunderstorms possible.   Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:10 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 1:09 AM

 

June 19, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible.  Hot and muggy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 94      IL ~ 88 to 94       KY ~ 88 to 94       TN ~  88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 7 to 9 Moderate to high
Sunrise: 5:34 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74       IL ~ 68 to 74       KY ~ 68 to 74        TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South and southwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 2:13 PM First Quarter
Moonset: 1:41 AM

 

June 20, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Quite a few clouds.  Warm and muggy.  Thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90       TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~ 40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 7 to 9 Moderate to high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms again possible.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high wind and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 8:18 PM
Moonrise: 3:13 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:13 AM

 

June 21, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of widely scattered thunderstorms.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~  85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 72     IL ~ 68 to 72       KY ~ 68 to 72        TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~  20%       KY ~  20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 4:13 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:45 AM

 

June 22, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy and Hot.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 92 to 96      IL ~ 92 to 96       KY ~ 92 to 96       TN ~  92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%      IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%          TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds:  Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10  Very high
Sunrise: 5:35 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75       IL ~ 72 to 74       KY ~ 72 to 75        TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~  10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Summer thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours, gusty winds, and small hail.  Frequent cloud to ground lightning, as well.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 8:19 PM
Moonrise: 5:11 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:18 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

 

 

We will have on and off thunderstorm chances this week.

It will be a typical summer pattern.  High heat and dew points (sticky).  There will be increasing cloud coverage from MCS’s (thunderstorm complexes).

Heavy rain will occur where storms form.  Last week some areas picked up an inch of rain in less than twenty minutes.  This week will be no different.  Pockets of flash flooding likely.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

A WIDE range of rainfall totals (even within the same county).

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.

 

 

This next graphic is the NAM model guidance rainfall forecast

Click images to enlarge

 

 

This next graphic is the GFS

 

 

This next graphic is the GEM model rainfall

 

 

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Questions?  Broken links?  Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Monday through Thursday: We will have thunderstorm chances again this week.  Some of the storms will be intense.

Heavy rain is likely where storms form.  There will also be a risk of downburst winds.  Downburst winds can exceed 50 mph.  Some of the most intense storms could produce hail.  Last week one county received ping pong size hail.

Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce frequent cloud to ground lightning.  Monitor updates.  Some storms could become severe.

Friday through Sunday: I am keeping an eye on a stronger system that should arrive later this week.  Perhaps Friday and Saturday.  Severe storms are possible, but the details on the placement of a frontal boundary is in question.  Monitor updates.

What are downbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

1. Hot weather
2. Thunderstorm chances
3. Tropical moisture feed

 

 

I am closely monitoring the Gulf of Mexico as a slug of moisture moves into Texas and eventually into our region.

The bright colors are thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

The National Hurricane Center says that this will not become a tropical system.  The concern was never wind or surge.  The concern has been the moisture feed that will spread northward.

Here is the PWAT (measure of moisture) anomaly.  This map is for Wednesday.  Above normal PWAT values.

That will mean tropical downpours.  Where storms occur they will be heavy.

 

 

Pulling out a bit you can see the tropical feed of moisture.  The red colors.

 

 

The problem with this pattern will be the timing of the rain and the coverage.

I suspect will have at least a couple of time periods this week when coverage will increase considerably.  Perhaps MCS’s.  MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that form during the summer months.  They can produce severe weather and heavy rain.

If you have outdoor activities this week then monitor updated forecasts.

Changeable forecasts are a good bet.

The hot and muggy weather will continue this week.  Clouds and precipitation may help knock temperatures into the upper 80’s vs middle 90’s as we push into Wednesday through Friday.

 

Here is the temperature anomaly since the first of the month.

How many degrees above normal has it been?  Several.

This will likely be a top five warmest Junes on record.

 

 

Do you know the symptoms of heat related illness?

 

 

Also, don’t forget our outdoor friends.

 

 

 

 

The preliminary July forecast has been updated.  The heat will likely be the big story.

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

These graphics are for subscribers.

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 647

WeatherBrains Episode 647 is now online (June 11, 2018).

If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

This week’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Philom. We will find out exactly what that means in a moment. He is the seventh editor of Farmers’ Almanac, which is significant, given that it was founded in 1818. Peter Geiger, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Sun spot cycles
Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean
Meaning of the word “Philom”
Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
and more!

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Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.