Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 31, 2018: Non-subscriber WeatherTalk update

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

 

July 31, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy morning fog.  Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some areas may remain dry.  High temperatures will again be highly dependent on cloud cover.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 76 to 82      KY ~ 78 to 84     TN ~ 82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%      KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: North and northwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and updates.  Some rain will likely linger into Tuesday
UV Index: 4 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:59 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some evening clouds.  A few showers remaining.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66      TN ~ 63 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~20%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty.  Ending.
Wind: North and norhtwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Evening wet roadways and lightning.  Fog possible overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 10:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:21 AM

 

 

August 1, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Morning fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85      KY ~ 82 to 85     TN ~ 82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%      KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   If fog develops then there would be lower visibility during the morning hours
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:59 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Variable light wind
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:02 PM
Moonrise: 10:55 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:21 AM

 

 

August 2, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.  Patchy morning fog possible early.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Variable to southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:00 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:01 PM
Moonrise: 11:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:20 AM

 

August 3, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible during the heat of the day.  Garden variety if any at all.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 88      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:01 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.  Mild and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible before 7 PM.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68     IL ~ 65 to 66      KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 11:57 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:17 PM

 

August 4, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm and humid.  An isolated heat of the day thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 88      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%      KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most.  An isolated storm possible.
Wind: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most.  An isolated wet road and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:02 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.  An isolated evening storm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated early
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Perhaps isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Last quarter
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

August 5, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  A few widely scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 86 to 88      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%      KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:03 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 12:32 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 2:24 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

This rain would fall today into this evening.

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

ind with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  This is one ingredient when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

 

Tuesday through Sunday: A few thunderstorms are possible today.  The risk of severe weather is low.  We should be thunderstorm free Wednesday and Thursday.  Isolated storms are possible Friday into Sunday.

Locally heavy rain will be a concern with PWAT values of 1.7 to 2.0″.  That is a lot of moisture for storms to tap into.  Remember, PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.

Storms Friday into Sunday could produce isolated high winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

  1. Cloudy with some scattered heavy showers and storms today
  2. We dry out tonight into Sunday
  3. Isolated storm chances Friday into Sunday

 

A fairly straight forward summer forecast over the coming days.

A large upper level system continues to push south and east across the Ohio Valley.  This is the reason we have experienced spotty showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

Check out this water vapor satellite image of the system.

You can see the counter-clockwise swirl as the moisture is pulled northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

 

Some of you have received almost no rain.  Some of you have received more than four inches.  That was the forecast.

Here are the NWS rainfall estimates since this event began.  Scale is on the left.  Click the image to enlarge.

Some areas have received quite a bit of rain.  Others have remained dry.

 

 

Zooming in on the SW Illinois totals.  Some isolated areas have received almost four inches of rain!

 

 

I have only received about 0.20″ here at the Weather Observatory in Massac County (as of 8 AM).

 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into this evening.  Some areas could pick up another inch or two if they find themselves underneath one of the heavy storms.  Other areas will remain dry.

The risk of severe weather today is low.  Not much surface CAPE (instability/energy).

Most of us will dry out tonight as the system begins to move away from our area.

Patchy dense fog is possible tonight into Wednesday morning.  Use care.

Wednesday into Friday will deliver a slow warming trend.  Highs by Friday will reach into the upper 80’s and perhaps a few 90’s.

At this time, the rain chances Wednesday into Friday appear low.  There are hints of moisture attempting to return by Friday.  I did add low end rain chances.

Increasing moisture Saturday and Sunday will mean a few more cumulus clouds with isolated thunderstorms.  Those would be the garden variety thunderstorms that often occur during the afternoon hours (heat of the day).

It will begin to feel more humid as we move into the weekend.  Dew points will slowly climb upward.  Remember, dew point controls how muggy it feels outside.

Here are the Wednesday  1 PM dew points

 

 

Here are the Sunday 1 PM dew points

 

 

Here are the Monday dew point temperatures

 

 

Most of the area will remain dry Wednesday through Sunday.

High pressure builds in early next week and that should keep us dry and warm.

No extreme weather in the current forecast.

Have a great day and remember you can always reach out to me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The August forecast has been updated. Outlook definitions

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

 

 

These videos are for subscribers.

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These videos are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

These videos are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers July 31st through August 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Always keep in mind, slow moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 652

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a meteorologist at the Naval Research Laboratory. Dr. David Peterson, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Last year was a record year for wildfires across the globe, and their impact on the atmosphere remains highly uncertain. Thanks to new research from expert scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, the world is gaining more insight into what drives these massive and escalating events. NRL meteorologist Dr. Peterson explained his findings from his recent research, “Wildfire-Driven Thunderstorms Cause a Volcano-Like Stratospheric Injection of Smoke,” during a press conference at the European Geosciences Union’s annual General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, held from April 8 to 13. “Our research shows that the stratospheric impact from five wildfire-driven thunderstorms, known as pyrocumulonimbus or pyroCb, was comparable to a moderate volcanic eruption,” Peterson explained the NRL pryoCb research team’s findings and that it’s an interdisciplinary collaboration with scientists from both the Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions within NRL. The significance of volcanic eruptions in the climate system has been recognized for several decades, but pyroCb research is relatively new, originating at NRL in the early 2000s, according to Peterson.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 120 at Death Valley, CA, and 41 at Naples, ID
  • NASA Sponsored Joint Korea/US Air Quality Campaign
  • Birmingham reached 105F on this date in 1980
  • Tropics all quiet in Atlantic basin
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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