Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 30, 2018: Non-subscribers update. Unsettled weather.

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Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

 

July 30, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.  Keep in mind, some areas may receive little in the way of measurable rainfall.  Temperatures will be dependent on cloud cover.  Thicker clouds/precipitation will yield highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 78 to 84      KY ~ 83 to 86     TN ~ 83 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%    IL ~ 50% to 60%    KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous at times
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  A strong storm is possible, but most storms will remain below severe levels.  An isolated severe weather risk.  That would mainly be over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would suggest monitoring radars and having a plan B
UV Index: 3 to 6 (clouds will cause the UV index to be lower)
Sunrise: 5:58 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible where thunderstorms occur.  Some areas may miss out on the rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Wind: Northerly at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.  Small risk of a severe thunderstorm early in the evening.  That would mainly be over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.  Have a plan B.
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 9:53 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:23 AM

 

 

July 31, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some areas may remain dry.  High temperatures will again be highly dependent on cloud cover.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~ 76 to 82      KY ~ 78 to 84     TN ~ 82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%      KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Northwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and updates.  Some rain will likely linger into Tuesday
UV Index: 4 to 6 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:59 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Some evening clouds.  A few showers remaining.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66      TN ~ 63 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~10%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Spotty.  Ending.
Wind: North and norhtwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Evening wet roadways and lightning.  Fog possible overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:03 PM
Moonrise: 10:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:21 AM

 

 

August 1, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Mild.  Morning fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85      KY ~ 82 to 85     TN ~ 82 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%      KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   If fog develops then there would be lower visibility during the morning hours
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium to high
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:59 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Variable light wind
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:02 PM
Moonrise: 10:55 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:21 AM

 

 

August 2, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.  Patchy morning fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%      KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Variable to southwest at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:00 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:01 PM
Moonrise: 11:25 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:20 AM

 

August 3, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible during the heat of the day.  Garden variety if any at all.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:01 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.  Mild and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible before 7 PM.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 11:57 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:17 PM

 

 

August 4, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm and humid.  An isolated heat of the day thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 88      KY ~ 86 to 88     TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most.  An isolated storm possible.
Wind: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most.  An isolated wet road and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:02 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Last quarter
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

 

August 5, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 86 to 88      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:03 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 12:32 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 2:24 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

In yesterday’s update I told you that I thought WPC’s forecast rain totals were too high.

They have come way down today.

Instead of widespread one to two inches they have lowered it to an inch or less across our region.

Some areas may receive very little in the way of measurable rainfall.  There will be slow moving thunderstorms that can also easily drop an inch or two of rain.  Keep that in mind.

 

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

ind with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  This is one ingredient when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

 

Monday through Friday: A few thunderstorms are possible today into Tuesday.  The risk of severe weather is low.  I can’t completely rule out a report of high wind from a few storms.

Yesterday, we had one tornado warning in Randolph County, IL.  No tornado was reported.  There was quite a bit of spin in the storm.  That is why a tornado warning was issued.

In today’s air-mass we could have a warning or two (most likely a severe thunderstorm warning).  The greatest chance will be across our southeastern counties.  That would mainly be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.

Locally heavy rain will be a concern with PWAT values of 1.7 to 2.0″.  That is a lot of moisture for storms to tap into.  Remember, PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.

At this time, the risk of storms Wednesday through Friday appears minimal.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

Weather Headlines

  1. A couple of unsettled days
  2. Shower and thunderstorm chances today into Tuesday
  3. Some areas may not receive much in the way of measurable rainfall

The main weather story today into Tuesday will be shower and thunderstorm chances.

Some areas received heavy rain over the weekend.  Other areas remained mostly dry.

Here is the weekend rain totals graphic.  You can see that some areas picked up over two inches of rain.

 

 

Several disturbances will pass through the region during this time frame.  The end result will be at least scattered showers and thunderstorms.

It is likely that some of us end up with very little in the way of measurable rainfall.

The greatest rain totals will likely be across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Again, anyone who finds themselves under a slow moving thunderstorm could easily pick up an inch or two of rain.

Here is my latest rainfall totals probability graphic.

 

 

Let’s take a look at some future-cast radar images.  This is what these different models believe will happen over the coming 48 hours.

Keep in mind, this is a model.  They are never exact.  Take away some generalities from the animations.

Click to enlarge.  Time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

Notice the lack of precipitation in some areas.

 

NAM model

 

 

Hrrr model

 

 

GFS model

 

 

Dry weather is anticipated Wednesday into Saturday.  I can’t rule out some heat of the day garden variety thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.  I kept chances fairly low (isolated).

It will be Wednesday into Sunday with a slow warming trend.  Temperatures will rise to near 90 degrees by Friday and Saturday. It will be humid, as well.  Dew points will likely be in the middle to upper 60’s.  Over the past few weeks dew points were in the miserable 70’s and 80’s.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers July 24th through July 30th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Always keep in mind, slow moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 652

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a meteorologist at the Naval Research Laboratory. Dr. David Peterson, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Last year was a record year for wildfires across the globe, and their impact on the atmosphere remains highly uncertain. Thanks to new research from expert scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, the world is gaining more insight into what drives these massive and escalating events. NRL meteorologist Dr. Peterson explained his findings from his recent research, “Wildfire-Driven Thunderstorms Cause a Volcano-Like Stratospheric Injection of Smoke,” during a press conference at the European Geosciences Union’s annual General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, held from April 8 to 13. “Our research shows that the stratospheric impact from five wildfire-driven thunderstorms, known as pyrocumulonimbus or pyroCb, was comparable to a moderate volcanic eruption,” Peterson explained the NRL pryoCb research team’s findings and that it’s an interdisciplinary collaboration with scientists from both the Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions within NRL. The significance of volcanic eruptions in the climate system has been recognized for several decades, but pyroCb research is relatively new, originating at NRL in the early 2000s, according to Peterson.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 120 at Death Valley, CA, and 41 at Naples, ID
  • NASA Sponsored Joint Korea/US Air Quality Campaign
  • Birmingham reached 105F on this date in 1980
  • Tropics all quiet in Atlantic basin
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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