Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 25, 2018: Subscribers post (free for everyone today). Warmer. A bit more humid.

Daily WeatherTalk schedule

Click schedule for a larger view. Keep in mind, during active weather this schedule will change. There will be additional updates outside of what has been posted here.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.

 

July 25, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:54 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68     IL ~ 66 to 68      KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North and northeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:42 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:59 AM

 

July 26, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning.  Some afternoon clouds.  A thunderstorm possible during the afternoon (mainly over southeast Missouri).  Widely scattered elsewhere.  Some debate as to whether the front will move through the region dry.  I did include at least a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms.  A bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 20% to 30%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps widely scattered
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:54 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  A chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps scattered wet roads and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 7:28 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:47 AM

 

July 27, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A few clouds, otherwise mostly sunny.  A slight chance of precipitation mainly before sunrise.  Greatest chance over our extreme eastern counties (Pennyrile area of west KY)
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 83 to 86     TN ~ 85 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning in a few areas
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:55 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65     IL ~ 58 to 65      KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Moonrise: 8:10 PM Full
Moonset: 5:39 AM

 

July 28, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Some increase in clouds during the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated (SE MO)
Wind: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways and lightning (southeast Missouri)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:56 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy.  A widely scattered shower or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Variable at 4 to 8 mph.  Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunset: 8:05 PM
Moonrise: 8:48 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:33 AM

 

July 29, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85     IL ~ 80 to 85      KY ~ 84 to 86     TN ~ 84 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40%     KY ~ 40%      TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:56 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~50% to 60%    IL ~ 50% to 60%    KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible
Sunset: 8:04 PM
Moonrise: 9:54 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:25 AM

 

July 30, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 85      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%      KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:57 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~20% to 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 9:53 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:23 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

This first graphic is the 5 day rainfall through Friday 1 AM

 

 

Here are the rain totals through next Tuesday morning

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

ind with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  This is one ingredient when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

 

Wednesday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A few thunderstorms (mainly Thursday/Thursday night) will be possible, but they will remain below severe levels.

Friday, at this time, appears dry.  There could still be some remaining showers before sunrise Friday.  Small chances of thunderstorms over southeast Missouri late Friday night.  Low confidence on those occurring.

Saturday through Monday:  We will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Monday.  Greatest chance would be Sunday and Monday.  This, as a cold front pushes into the region.

Severe weather appears unlikely, but I would suggest monitoring updates.  Locally heavy rain will occur with thunderstorms.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Vacation
  2. Calm day ahead
  3. A bit warmer and more humid today and tomorrow.
  4. Monitoring the weekend for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances

 

I am on vacation with family this week.  Shorter updates.  Thankfully, it should be a fairly calm week.

Another calm day for the region.  No weather concerns.  It will be a bit more humid today.  You might notice the difference.

We will remain dry today and tonight.

A weak cold front arrives Thursday/Thursday night.  This front might be accompanied by a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.   Nothing too dramatic.  Many areas will likely remain dry.  A few spots might pick up 0.10″ to 0.25″.

Here is the NAM 3K model guidance concerning Thursday’s rain potential.  It does pop a few showers and thunderstorms.  Confidence in Thursday’s forecast is low to medium.  A lot of the guidance brings the cold front through the region dry.  I did include at least a chance of spotty showers and storms.

Time stamp upper left

4 PM future-cast radar shows a few showers and storms along the front.

 

 

Here is the 6 PM future-cast radar from the NAM 3K model (one of many models)

 

 

Thunderstorm chances increase as we move towards Saturday into Monday.  That would be in response to a new upper level system moving in from the west.  Still a bit early to be certain on rain.  I know some of you could use a bit of rain.

The best chance of rain appears to be Sunday into Monday evening.  That is when the system will be producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Hopefully, some of you who need rain will pick up some.

 

 

The August forecast has been updated. 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

 

 

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos. They have a great team of meteorologists. The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

These videos are a bonus for subscribers.

This one is centered on the Ohio Valley.

Keep in mind that this covers a larger region than just our local counties.

 

Illinois/Ohio Valley

 

 

Long Range Video (more technical discussion)

 

 

Missouri Valley and Central Plains

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers July 25th through July 31st

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Always keep in mind, slow moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers August 1st through August 7th 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Always keep in mind, slow moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers August 3rd through August 16th

 

 

And precipitation

Always keep in mind, slow moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

 

 

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 653

For this show we talk with Chris White and Bill Hark who will be discussing the Virginia ChaserCon. There is a link below to information about the ChaserCon. Aubrey has the lead in grilling the guests.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 125 at Death Valley, CA, and 32 at Stanley, ID
  • Some cool weather in Southeast US – BHM high today 85
  • Anomalous trough over eastern US
  • Tropical Atlantic quiet
  • Eastern North Pacific watching two systems
  • Wet in Aubrey’s area
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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