Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 24, 2018: Non-subscribers update. Warm weather

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

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July 24, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  Most likely dry.  Storms chances at or less than 10%.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Small chance of wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:53 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  A few clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5%     IL ~ 5%    KY ~ 5%     TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:09 PM
Moonrise: 5:52 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:14 AM

 

July 25, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy.  Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:54 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68     IL ~ 66 to 68      KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:08 PM
Moonrise: 6:42 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:59 AM

 

July 26, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning.  Some afternoon clouds.  A thunderstorm possible.  More humid.  Muggier.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:54 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  An evening thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 66 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: North at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps scattered wet roads and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:07 PM
Moonrise: 7:28 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:47 AM

 

July 27, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  An isolated thunderstorm.  Most will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways and lightning in a few areas
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:55 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:06 PM
Moonrise: 8:10 PM Full
Moonset: 5:39 AM

 

July 28, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would check updated forecasts and radar.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:56 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunset: 8:05 PM
Moonrise: 8:48 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:33 AM

 

July 29, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 83 to 86     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40%      TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible.
UV Index: 6 to 8 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:56 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 70     IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~40% to 50%    IL ~ 40% to 50%    KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southeast and south at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.  Rain is possible
Sunset: 8:05 PM
Moonrise: 8:48 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 6:33 AM

A 40% to 50% chance of rain Monday, as well

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

This first graphic is the 5 day rainfall through Friday 1 AM

We may end up with some showers Thursday/Thursday night as a cold front nudges into the region.

That is not reflected all that well on the WPC rainfall forecast chart.

 

 

Here are the rain totals through next Tuesday morning

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

ind with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  This is one ingredient when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

 

Tuesday through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  A few thunderstorms (mainly Thursday/Thursday night) will be possible, but they will remain below severe levels.

Saturday through Monday:  We may see an increase in showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Monday.  Severe weather appears unlikely, but I would suggest monitoring updates.

It is possible that Friday remains dry.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Vacation
  2. August forecast graphics updated (see further down)
  3. Calm day ahead
  4. A bit warmer and more humid as we move into Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.  Nothing extreme.
  5. Monitoring the weekend for increasing shower and thunderstorm chances

 

I am on vacation with family this week.  Shorter updates.  Thankfully, it should be a fairly calm week.

The weather will remain calm again today.  Great news for all of you summer fans.  A few of you are in need of a shower.  Perhaps we can pull that off this weekend.

Temperatures today into Friday will be seasonably warm.  A bit more humid as we move into Wednesday through Friday.

The region should remain dry today into Wednesday night.  Rain chances at or less than 10%.

A weak cold front arrives Thursday/Thursday night.  This front might be accompanied by a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.  At this time, model guidance is mixed on this idea.

I am forecasting a few areas of precipitation on radar with the front pushing southward.  Some of you who need some rain might pick up tenth of an inch to a quarter of an inch.  As always, a thunderstorm can produce heavier totals.

Thunderstorm chances creep back upward as we move towards Saturday into Monday.  That would be in response to a new upper level system moving in from the west.  Still a bit early to be certain on rain.  I know some of you could use a bit of rain.

The best chance of rain appears to be Sunday into Monday evening.  That is when the system will be producing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.  Hopefully, some of you who need rain will pick up some.

It is a bit early to know if severe thunderstorms will be a concern.  I will monitor trends.

 

The August forecast has been updated. 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

 

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

These videos are a bonus for subscribers.

This one is centered on the Ohio Valley.

Keep in mind that this covers a larger region than just our local counties.

 

These videos are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Illinois/Ohio Valley Video Update

 

 

These videos are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Long Range Video (more technical discussion)

 

 

 

These videos are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Missouri Valley and Central Plains

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers July 24th through July 30th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Always keep in mind, slow moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 652

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a meteorologist at the Naval Research Laboratory. Dr. David Peterson, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Last year was a record year for wildfires across the globe, and their impact on the atmosphere remains highly uncertain. Thanks to new research from expert scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, the world is gaining more insight into what drives these massive and escalating events. NRL meteorologist Dr. Peterson explained his findings from his recent research, “Wildfire-Driven Thunderstorms Cause a Volcano-Like Stratospheric Injection of Smoke,” during a press conference at the European Geosciences Union’s annual General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, held from April 8 to 13. “Our research shows that the stratospheric impact from five wildfire-driven thunderstorms, known as pyrocumulonimbus or pyroCb, was comparable to a moderate volcanic eruption,” Peterson explained the NRL pryoCb research team’s findings and that it’s an interdisciplinary collaboration with scientists from both the Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions within NRL. The significance of volcanic eruptions in the climate system has been recognized for several decades, but pyroCb research is relatively new, originating at NRL in the early 2000s, according to Peterson.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 120 at Death Valley, CA, and 41 at Naples, ID
  • NASA Sponsored Joint Korea/US Air Quality Campaign
  • Birmingham reached 105F on this date in 1980
  • Tropics all quiet in Atlantic basin
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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