Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 18, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Warm weather. Watching thunderstorm chances.

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July 18, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  More clouds over southeast Missouri vs elsewhere.  A widely scattered thunderstorm possible over southeast Missouri (the further west you go into the Bootheel stands the chance of a thunderstorm).  The majority of the region should remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88     KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 5%     KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most of the region.  Widely scattered in the above mentioned areas.
Wind: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most of the region.  Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning over portions of southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.  The further west you drive the higher the rain chances.  Peaking over south-central Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:48 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds.  We should remain dry, but I will be monitoring an incoming front from the west.  A thunderstorm possible over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 62 to 66      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind:  Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 12:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

July 19, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Lower confidence on rain coverage Thursday.  Some of the guidance pops a line of storms in the region.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 85 to 90     KY ~ 85 to 90     TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered, but monitor updates
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Occasionally, summer storms can produce pockets of damaging wind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? If storms form they could produce spotty high wind.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:49 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74     IL ~ 68 to 74      KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Hail possible.  Torrential downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  A few reports of hail will be possible.  Gusty wind near storms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 1:05 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:16 AM

 

July 20, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms developing.  Some storms could be severe.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 60%     KY ~ 60%      TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  A few strong/severe storms possible.  Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.  Storms are possible.
UV Index: 8 to 9 High
Sunrise: 5:50 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of a scattered to numerous thunderstorm.  Some storms could be severe.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Heavy rain where storms occur.  Some strong or severe storms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.  Storms are likely.
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 2:06 PM First quarter
Moonset: 12:48 AM

 

July 21, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few clouds.  Most of the thunderstorms should have ended.   Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90     KY ~ 86 to 92     TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  I can’t rule out some storms over mainly the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:50 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 3:06 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:21 AM

 

July 22, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   Warm.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 83 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:51 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Perhaps a few clouds.  Otherwise, mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  A slight chance of an evening isolated thunderstorm.
Wind: North at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Moonrise: 4:03 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:56 AM

 

July 23, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 83 to 86      KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 86 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:52 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear with a few clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 68      TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Moonrise: 4:59 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:33 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

A few widely scattered storms possible in southeast Missouri (most of us will remain dry today)

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

This is the seven-day rainfall map (below)

Here are the rain totals through Wednesday morning

Most of this falls Thursday night into Friday night

Again, thunderstorms can produce much higher totals.  Keep that in mind.

 

 

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Wednesday and Wednesday night.   Not anticipating severe thunderstorms.

Thursday into Friday evening:  Another cold front will bring thunderstorms back into the region.  A few thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

Severe thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night.  Large hail, damaging wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours will be possible.  Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out.

I encourage everyone to monitor updates.

Saturday through Monday:  For the time being it appears that storm chances will be low.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Isolated storms today over southeast Missouri.
  2. Monitor thunderstorm chances Thursday.
  3. Severe weather event possible Friday and Friday night.  Monitor updates.
  4. Saturday into Monday should be somewhat cooler.  Mostly dry, as well.

 

Mostly calm weather today into Thursday morning.

A few thunderstorms are possible today over southeast Missouri into western Tennessee.  This will be in response to a disturbance sliding southeast through Missouri.

Here is the SPC WRF model.  This is for later this afternoon.  A few storms in Missouri.

 

 

A few spotty storms can’t be ruled out Thursday afternoon and night.

One of the high resolution models is showing a line of storms moving across our region Thursday.  This needs to be monitored.  This lowers my confidence in the overall Thursday forecast.

Here is the Hrrr model.  This is for 3 PM Thursday.

I did increase rain chances Thursday.  Not a lot, but some.

 

 

The big weather story will be the possibility of a severe weather event Friday into Friday night.  I encourage everyone to monitor updates.

The ingredients are coming together for a southward/southeastward moving squall line of thunderstorms.  Supercell thunderstorms can’t be ruled out.

There will be plenty of energy available Friday with high temperatures in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.

CAPE values (a measure of energy) will pop into the 2000+ range.  That combined with quite a bit of wind shear will set the stage for severe thunderstorms.

Wind shear is the turning of wind direction with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  Wind shear is a necessary ingredient when it comes to severe thunderstorms.

Dew points will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s.  That is a lot of juice.  PWAT values (a measure of moisture in the entire  atmosphere) will pop into the 1.6 to 2.0 range.  Locally higher numbers.

Those large PWAT numerous will mean torrential downpours.

There will be no shortage of lightning, as well.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

Still a bit early to know any certainties on this potential severe weather event.

A lot of what happens Friday will depend on Thursday night and Friday morning.

If we have thunderstorms earlier vs later then the severe risk will be smaller.

I can’t rule out some hail Thursday night and Friday morning.  Monitor updates.

Saturday into Monday should be mostly dry.  I placed rain chances at or below 20% (for the most part).  We may be able to remove rain chances completely.

Winds will become northerly over the weekend and lower dew points will filter into the region.  Lower dew points will mean less humidity.  It will feel nicer outside.  Lower dew points have been rare, thus far this summer.  We have experienced abnormally high dew points since May and June.

We deserve a break.

A lot of the long range data does show a cooling trend over the next couple of weeks.

The July forecast has been updated. The heat will likely be the big story.

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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These graphics are for subscribers.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 652

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a meteorologist at the Naval Research Laboratory. Dr. David Peterson, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Last year was a record year for wildfires across the globe, and their impact on the atmosphere remains highly uncertain. Thanks to new research from expert scientists at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, the world is gaining more insight into what drives these massive and escalating events. NRL meteorologist Dr. Peterson explained his findings from his recent research, “Wildfire-Driven Thunderstorms Cause a Volcano-Like Stratospheric Injection of Smoke,” during a press conference at the European Geosciences Union’s annual General Assembly in Vienna, Austria, held from April 8 to 13. “Our research shows that the stratospheric impact from five wildfire-driven thunderstorms, known as pyrocumulonimbus or pyroCb, was comparable to a moderate volcanic eruption,” Peterson explained the NRL pryoCb research team’s findings and that it’s an interdisciplinary collaboration with scientists from both the Marine Meteorology and Remote Sensing Divisions within NRL. The significance of volcanic eruptions in the climate system has been recognized for several decades, but pyroCb research is relatively new, originating at NRL in the early 2000s, according to Peterson.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 120 at Death Valley, CA, and 41 at Naples, ID
  • NASA Sponsored Joint Korea/US Air Quality Campaign
  • Birmingham reached 105F on this date in 1980
  • Tropics all quiet in Atlantic basin
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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