Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 16, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Warm day ahead.

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

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July 16, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.  Locally heavy rain.  Small hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce isolated high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Widely scattered wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.  A few strong thunderstorms are possible.  The main concern would be damaging wind.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check evening radars
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 9:50 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:08 PM

 

July 17, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Just a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to perhaps a few wet roadways and lightning strikes.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68      TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%     TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: Northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 10:58 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:42 PM

 

July 18, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   A few clouds.  Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88     KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: East at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:48 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds.  We should remain dry, but I will be monitoring an incoming front from the west.  Perhaps I will have to add a thunderstorm to the southeast Missouri portion of the forecast.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind:  Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 12:03 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:01 AM

 

July 19, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88     KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered along an incoming front.
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Occasionally, summer storms can produce pockets of damaging wind.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.  A few strong storms possible.  High wind would be the concern.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:49 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74     IL ~ 68 to 74      KY ~ 68 to 74      TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 1:05 PM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:16 AM

 

July 20, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of scattered to numerous thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 60%     KY ~ 60%      TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  A few strong storms.  Heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Some strong storms possible.  Summer storms can produce isolated downburst winds.  That would be winds above 50 mph.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.  Storms are possible.
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:50 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A chance of a scattered to numerous thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60%     IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%     TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Heavy rain where storms occur.  Some strong storms possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Possible
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and radars.  Storms are likely.
Sunset: 8:12 PM
Moonrise: 2:06 PM First quarter
Moonset: 12:48 AM

 

July 21, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88     KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:50 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%     KY ~ 0%      TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 3:06 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:21 AM

 

July 22, 2018S
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   Warm.  A slight chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90     IL ~ 84 to 90      KY ~ 85 to 90     TN ~ 85 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%      TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:51 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:10 PM
Moonrise: 4:03 PM Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 1:56 AM

 

 

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

These are forecast rain totals through Wednesday morning.

The best chance of measurable precipitation will be today and this evening.

 

 

This is the seven-day rainfall map (below)

Here are the rain totals through Monday, July 23rd.

Again, thunderstorms can produce much higher totals.

 

 

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Monday and Monday night:  A few thunderstorms possible today and tonight.  The risk of organized severe weather is small.  Storms that do form could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, and isolated damaging wind gusts.  Pea size hail, as well.

Tuesday and Wednesday.   Not anticipating severe thunderstorms.

Thursday into Friday evening:  Another cold front may bring thunderstorms back into the region.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Warm and muggy today
  2. A cold front passes through the region tonight and tomorrow bringing somewhat milder and less muggy air into the region
  3. Another cold front Thursday and Friday

 

It was a stormy weekend for the region!

Thunderstorms delivered torrential downpours to some locations.  Some areas received more than three inches of rain.  The rain came down in buckets, at times.  There were several reports of flash flooding.

Cuba, Kentucky, received a microburst.  There were concerns that it was a tornado, at first.  I sent out a tornado alert and then updated it with information on the microburst.  Downburst/microburst winds can resemble tornadic winds.

Wind gusts topped 70 mph in Cuba, Kentucky.  Trees were downed and a portion of the old elementary school roof was damaged.  People said it was some of the highest winds they can remember.

Today will be a bit calmer.

A cold front is positioned to our northwest.  This weak front will sag into our region later today and tonight.  The front will be accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms.

The front will also push the warm and muggy air southward as it transverses the area.

Thunderstorms that form today could produce locally heavy rain, gusty wind, lightning, and small hail.  Same as recent days.

Isolated damaging wind gusts are again possible.  Typical summer storms.  Many areas will remain dry today.

The front will exit the region tonight.  Behind the front, you can expect lower dew points.  Remember, dew points control how muggy it feels outside.

Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry.  I can’t 100% rule out an isolated storm, but I believe odds favor dry weather.

It will be warm, but it won’t be as oppressive as recent days.  Highs will mostly be in the 80’s.  We deserve a break.

Another cold front will near the region Thursday and Friday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany that front, as well.

It is a bit early to know how widespread the precipitation will or won’t be.  For now, I have scattered thunderstorms in the forecast both days.

At this time, it appears Saturday and Sunday may end up dry and warm.  Monitor updates.

 

 

The July forecast has been updated. The heat will likely be the big story.

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 651

Our two guest WeatherBrains tonight will help us all take a stroll down memory lane by looking back at some of the first years of The Weather Channel.

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #1 is a legend in meteorology. He was the first Director of Meteorology at The Weather Channel, Chief Meteorologist at WSI, and was Dr. Dewpoint on the Intellicast website. He is currently Co-Chief Meteorologist at WeatherBell Analytics. We’re happy to have Joe D’Aleo.

Joining us as Guest WeatherBrain #2 is Al Lipson. Al was a Lead Forecaster at The Weather Channel in the early days. Apparently Al was a bit of a wise-cracker.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 121 at Death Valley, CA, and 34 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Atlantic Basin has become active
  • Chris off Carolina coast now a hurricane
  • Beryl reached hurricane status but degenerated to an open wave
  • Hot in Southwest US
  • Drought centered on Four Corners Area
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

No video this week.  There is audio.

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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