Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 13, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot weather.

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We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

.

July 13, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Hot.  We will have to see how far southwest the front pushes.  Lower dew points north and east of the front.  Higher dew points south and west.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 95     IL ~ 90 to 95     KY ~ 90 to 95     TN ~ 92 to 95
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:45 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 68 to 72      KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Wind: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 6:17 AM New Moon
Moonset: 8:57 PM

 

July 14, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Isolated to widely scattered storms possible.  Hot and humid.  Heat index 100 to 106.    Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96     IL ~ 92 to 96     KY ~ 92 to 96     TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered.
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated to widely scattered wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radar if skies darken.
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:45 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.   Scattered thunderstorms possible.  Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Temperatures: MO  ~ 72 to 75     IL ~ 72 to 74      KY ~ 72 to 75      TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Scattered wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.  Heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 7:28 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:47 PM

 

July 15, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Hot and humid.  Heat index 100 to 106.  Scattered heavy thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96     IL ~ 92 to 96     KY ~ 92 to 96     TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.  Heavy rain where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:46 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 72 to 76      KY ~ 72 to 76      TN ~ 74 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.  Heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check evening radars
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 8:40 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:30 PM

 

July 16, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  Thunderstorms likely.  Some storms will produce heavy rain and gusty winds.  Frequent lightning, as well.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%     KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.  Locally heavy rain.  Small hail.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could become severe with high winds and small hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor forecast updates.
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.  A few strong thunderstorms are possible.  The main concern would be damaging wind.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check evening radars
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 9:50 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:08 PM

 

July 17, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  Thunderstorms should come to an end as a cold front pushes southeast.  It is possible Tuesday ends up dry.  This will be determined by the speed of the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Decreasing clouds.  Becoming clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 10:58 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:42 PM

 

July 18, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88     KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 10:58 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:42 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

These are forecast rain totals through Saturday morning.

Again, thunderstorms can always produce much higher totals.

Most of the region should remain dry today through Saturday.

 

 

Rain chances increase Sunday through Monday morning.  Some heavy storms are possible.

Here are the rain totals through Monday morning.

 

 

Finally, let’s look at the seven day rain totals.

It does appear we have a couple of shots at showers and thunderstorms over the next seven days.

Some areas could top two inches of rain.  Any slow moving storms could produce even higher totals.  Plenty of moisture to work with.

 

 

 

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Friday through Saturday.  Storm chances today and Saturday are low.  I can’t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm.   Any storms that form would be intense with gusty winds, torrential rain, and lightning,  Pea size hail, as well.  Vast majority of the region will remain dry.

Sunday into Monday night:  Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday.  Scattered.  Thunderstorm activity will become more numerous Sunday afternoon into Monday night.  This will occur along an incoming cold front.

A few of the storms could produce damaging wind, small hail, and torrential downpours.  PWAT values (measure of moisture) will be extremely high Sunday night into Monday night.  This would mean heavy rain totals.

Decreasing rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.   There are some guidance packages that show 20% to 30% thunderstorm chances Tuesday (mostly across the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee).  I will keep an eye on that time frame.

Thursday:  Another cold front may bring thunderstorms back into the region.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Hot today and Saturday
  2. A cold front arrives Sunday and Monday.  Thunderstorms possible.
  3. Monitoring another cold front Thursday.

 

The main weather story today and Saturday will be hot temperatures combined with dew points in the 60’s and 70’s.  This will make it uncomfortable outside.

Highs will be in the 90’s both today and Saturday.  We may see middle to upper 90’s Saturday afternoon.

Heat index values will again pop above 100 degrees today and Saturday.  Use care.

A cold front will push into the region Sunday night into Monday night.

This front will be accompanied by showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

PWAT values will be extreme.  Charts of showing 2″+ numbers.  That is at the top of the chart.  Some of the models show record PWAT values.

PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  Thunderstorms that form will tap into that moisture.  Locally torrential downpours will be the end result.

 

 

Sunday 1 PM PWAT values.  Anything above 2″ is extreme.

 

 

Here are the 1 PM Monday PWAT numbers

 

 

Here is the 7 PM Monday PWAT value chart.  Large amount of moisture.

 

 

So, the bottom line is we may experience torrential downpours in thunderstorms that form in this moist atmosphere.

The severe weather risk Sunday into Monday night is not zero, but it is also not all that great.  A few storms could produce damaging winds.  I will keep an eye on it.  Lightning is a concern for outdoor events, as well.

Let’s take a look at the 3K NAM model future-cast radar.  This covers Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

Now, keep in mind, this is one models opinion.  Models don’t always handle summer thunderstorms all that well.

You can see that the 3K NAM brings a few thunderstorms into the region Saturday night.  Activity should increase Sunday into Sunday night and peak Monday/Monday night.

If you have outdoor plans Saturday then I would not worry.  I would check radars on Sunday and Sunday night.

 

 

The cold front will push southward Monday night and Tuesday.  It may linger across the Missouri Bootheel, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

I do have thunderstorm chances Tuesday.  I have them on the low end for the time being.  I will increase them if need be.  I would like to see a bit more support from the guidance before doing so.

Wednesday should be dry.  Wednesday night, as well.

Another cold front may increase thunderstorm activity Thursday and Friday.

Looking ahead just a bit.  Check out this map.

This is July 17th through July 22nd.  Guidance is showing a possible cooling trend with below normal temperatures.   This would be towards the middle/end of next week.

Let’s hope.

This is the temperature anomaly forecast map.  The blue and green area represents below normal temperatures.

 

 

Heat Safety!

 

 

 

The July forecast has been updated. The heat will likely be the big story.

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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These graphics are for subscribers.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

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A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 651

Our two guest WeatherBrains tonight will help us all take a stroll down memory lane by looking back at some of the first years of The Weather Channel.

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #1 is a legend in meteorology. He was the first Director of Meteorology at The Weather Channel, Chief Meteorologist at WSI, and was Dr. Dewpoint on the Intellicast website. He is currently Co-Chief Meteorologist at WeatherBell Analytics. We’re happy to have Joe D’Aleo.

Joining us as Guest WeatherBrain #2 is Al Lipson. Al was a Lead Forecaster at The Weather Channel in the early days. Apparently Al was a bit of a wise-cracker.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 121 at Death Valley, CA, and 34 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Atlantic Basin has become active
  • Chris off Carolina coast now a hurricane
  • Beryl reached hurricane status but degenerated to an open wave
  • Hot in Southwest US
  • Drought centered on Four Corners Area
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

No video this week.  There is audio.

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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