Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

July 12, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Hot weather to continue.

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

  1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
  2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
  3.  Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone.  When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
  4.  AWARE emails.  These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
  5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
  7.  Long-range weather videos
  8.  Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
  9.  Monthly outlooks.
  10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

.

July 12, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Not as humid over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.  Muggier as you move south and west through the region.  We will have to see how south and west the front pushes.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 94     IL ~ 88 to 94     KY ~ 88 to 94     TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%       IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:44 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 73     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 66 to 73      TN ~ 70 to 73
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Light and variable wind becoming east and southeast at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 5:11 AM Waning Crescent
Moonset: 8:00 PM

 

July 13, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Hot.  We will have to see how far southwest the front pushes.  Lower dew points north and east of the front.  Higher dew points south and west.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 95     IL ~ 90 to 95     KY ~ 90 to 95     TN ~ 90 to 95
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:45 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 68 to 72      KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Wind: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:16 PM
Moonrise: 6:17 AM New Moon
Moonset: 8:57 PM

 

July 14, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Hot and humid.  Heat index 100 to 106.   An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96     IL ~ 92 to 96     KY ~ 92 to 96     TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%     KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:45 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Warm and humid.   An isolated evening thunderstorm possible.  Widely scattered storms possible late.
Temperatures: MO  ~ 72 to 75     IL ~ 72 to 74      KY ~ 72 to 75      TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: South at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 7:28 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 9:47 PM

 

July 15, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  Hot and humid.  Heat index 100 to 106.  Scattered thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 92 to 96     IL ~ 92 to 96     KY ~ 92 to 96     TN ~ 92 to 96
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 30% to 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:46 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76     IL ~ 72 to 76      KY ~ 72 to 76      TN ~ 74 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%     IL ~ 40% to 50%     KY ~ 40% to 50%     TN ~ 40% to 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check evening radars
Sunset: 8:15 PM
Moonrise: 8:40 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 10:30 PM

 

July 16, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  Scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% to 60%     IL ~ 50% to 60%     KY ~ 50% to 60%     TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40%     IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%     TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways, lightning, and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer thunderstorms can occasionally produce pockets of high winds and hail.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check evening radars
Sunset: 8:14 PM
Moonrise: 9:50 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:08 PM

 

July 17, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  Warm.  Thunderstorms should come to an end as a cold front pushes southeast.  It is possible Tuesday ends up dry.  This will be determined by the speed of the cold frontal passage.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92     KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 30%     KY ~ 30%      TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered.
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps wet roads, lightning, gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce isolated damaging winds and torrential rain
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Decreasing clouds.  Becoming clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 10:58 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:42 PM

 

July 18, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.   Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88     KY ~ 85 to 88     TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%     KY ~ 10%      TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: Northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 5:47 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72     IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Wind: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:13 PM
Moonrise: 10:58 AM Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 11:42 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

A fairly typical weather pattern for our local area.

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

These are forecast rain totals through Sunday morning.

Again, thunderstorms can always produce much higher totals.

Most of the region should remain dry today through Saturday.

 

 

Let’s look at the seven day rainfall forecast.  Rain chances increase Sunday through Tuesday.  Some heavy storms are possible.

 

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Thursday through Saturday.  Storm chances today through Saturday are low.  I can’t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm.   Any storms that form would be intense with gusty winds, torrential rain, and lightning,  Pea size hail, as well.  Many areas will remain dry.

 

Sunday into next week:  Thunderstorm chances will increase a bit Sunday.  Scattered.  Thunderstorm activity may become more numerous as we move into the new work week.  Monitor updates.  Some of the storm could be strong.

At this time it appears a cold front will push through the region Monday.  The highest rain chances will likely be Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.

Decreasing rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.  As a matter of fact, those two days may remain mostly dry.  This will depend on how fast the cold front passes through the region.  It has sped up in the guidance.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

 

 

 

Weather Headlines

  1. Hot weather
  2. Somewhat better dew points today (for some)
  3. Thunderstorm chances increase next week

 

Another hot day for the region.  The good news (for many) is that today won’t be quite as muggy.  Dew points will be a tad lower.  Dew points control how muggy it feels outside.  We have been experiencing dew points in the 70’s and 80’s.   Today, we will mostly be in the 60’s (for dew points).

Here is the dew point chart for 4 PM this afternoon.  Notice the push of lower dew points across portions of the region.  Higher dew points as you travel south and west.

 

 

Here is the 7 AM Friday dew point forecast map.  A somewhat nicer feel to air across much of the region.

 

 

Friday 4 PM dew point map.

 

 

Saturday 1 PM dew point map.  Back into the muggy zone.

 

 

Dry weather is expected today into Saturday.  I can’t completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but I believe the vast majority of the region will remain dry.

Highs today will mostly be in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.  Highs Friday and Saturday will climb into the 90’s.  The hottest day will be Saturday.  Widespread middle 90’s are anticipated.  Heat index values today will range from 95 to 100.  Heat index values Friday and Saturday will jump into the 102 to 108 degree range.  Summer!

A cold front will begin to push our way late Saturday night into Sunday night.  This front will be accompanied by scattered showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.

Rain chances Saturday night will likely remain below 30%.  Rain chances Sunday into Monday will jump into the 40% to 60% range.  This will be the best chance of rain over the coming six day period.  Another chance of rain towards next Thursday.

Some of the thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain, frequent lightning, pea size hail, and strong/gusty winds.  The severe weather risk is low.  Severe meaning quarter size hail or larger and 60+ mph winds.

We should dry out Tuesday into Wednesday.  Perhaps a few remaining showers and thunderstorms over our far eastern counties Tuesday.  This will depend on how fast the front pushes eastward.  Guidance has been speeding up the cold front.

Here is the NAM model guidance future-cast rainfall.  This particular run goes out to 1 PM Sunday.  The rain would continue to push south and east after that time.

Watch the rain moving in from the north.  That is along the incoming cold front.

Timestamp upper left.

 

 

These will be no shortage of moisture for thunderstorms to work with.

PWAT values will be very high Sunday and Monday.

 

 

 

Here is the 7 AM Sunday PWAT value maps.  These are some extreme numbers.  That simply means that any storms that form could produce locally heavy rain.

 

 

Sunday 1 PM PWAT value chart

 

 

Monday 7 PM PWAT value chart.

 

 

There is another cold front in the charts towards next Thursday.  Long way off in the weather world.

This front may bring additional locally heavy thunderstorms into the region.

This is the GFS model guidance.  This is 1 AM Friday.  You can see closed isobars (those black lines) across Illinois.  That is an area of low pressure near Peoria.  A cold front stretches south into Missouri and Arkansas.

Isobars are equal lines of barometric pressure.

 

 

GFS also shows some CAPE (energy that storms tap into) Thursday.  That could mean a few strong thunderstorms.  Again, this is in the longer range.  Confidence is low.

 

 

PWAT values will also be high next Thursday.  That is a lot of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

I will keep an eye on it.

 

 

Heat Safety!

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 88 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.80″

This outlook covers June 12th through June 18th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

This outlook covers June 22nd through July 5th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

June temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

 

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook for April through June.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Precipitation outlook for March through May.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 651

Our two guest WeatherBrains tonight will help us all take a stroll down memory lane by looking back at some of the first years of The Weather Channel.

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #1 is a legend in meteorology. He was the first Director of Meteorology at The Weather Channel, Chief Meteorologist at WSI, and was Dr. Dewpoint on the Intellicast website. He is currently Co-Chief Meteorologist at WeatherBell Analytics. We’re happy to have Joe D’Aleo.

Joining us as Guest WeatherBrain #2 is Al Lipson. Al was a Lead Forecaster at The Weather Channel in the early days. Apparently Al was a bit of a wise-cracker.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 121 at Death Valley, CA, and 34 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Atlantic Basin has become active
  • Chris off Carolina coast now a hurricane
  • Beryl reached hurricane status but degenerated to an open wave
  • Hot in Southwest US
  • Drought centered on Four Corners Area
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

No video this week.  There is audio.

Link https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *