Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 7, 2019: Non-subscriber update. Subscribers, see the update below this one. Much colder weather is on the way.

 

 

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Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

 

 

 

 

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NOTE:

This is the early morning preliminary update.

I will post additional information later this morning.

February 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  A cold front will bring surging temperatures with a band of showers and heavy thunderstorms.  Temperatures ahead of the front will rise into the 60’s.  Temperatures behind the front will drop into the 30’s.  The front could produce a few severe thunderstorms with damaging wind.  There is a low-end risk of an isolated tornado.  Overall, the risk of severe weather at any given location is small.  I will send out app messages if severe weather develops.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   FALLING TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT   MO Bootheel  64° to 68°      SE MO  62° to 66°      South IL  62° to 66°     West KY  64° to 68°     NW TN  66° to 68°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.  Winds becoming west.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  Behind the front wind chill values will drop into the 20’s
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  100%      MO  100%       IL   100%      KY  100%       TN  100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Yes.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? Yes.  There is a risk of severe weather.  The main concern will be during the AM hours.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Heavy rain.  Flooding or flash flooding.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:53 AM

 

Monitor watches and warnings.

Of course, I will be updating the blog, Facebook, and I will send out app messages.

Make sure you have WeatherOne turned on.  That is the most important app/text message.  That is the one for tornadoes.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com account.  Click the personal notification settings tab.  Turn on WeatherOne.  It will be green if it is on.  It will be red if it is off.

 

 

 

Thursday night Forecast:  Turning sharply colder.  Rain will have come to an end over most of the area.  Small chance of a remaining shower over our far eastern counties.   A small chance of flurries as the colder air arrives.  Watch for black ice in areas where moisture remains as the cold air arrives.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High   (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  23° to 26°      SE MO  16° to 22°      South IL  16° to 22°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:  Becoming west and northwest at 15 to 30 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 5 to 15
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   10%      MO  10%      IL   20%      KY  30%       TN   20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending west to east.
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Yes.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Unlikely
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Possible flurries
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Unlikely.  Watch for black ice in areas where moisture remains as the cold air arrives.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Perhaps early.  Most likely the lightning concerns will be over with.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Watch for black ice in areas where moisture remains as the cold air arrives.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:26 PM
Moonrise:   8:35 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   8:07 PM

 

February 8, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny and colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  32° to 35°      SE MO  28° to 34°      South IL  26° to 34°     West KY  32° to 34°     NW TN  34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 25
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3  Moderate
Sunrise:   6:52 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  22° to 24°      SE MO  16° to 20°      South IL  14° to 18°     West KY  18° to 24°       NW TN  20° to 24°
Wind direction and speed:  North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 10 to 15
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:27 PM
Moonrise:   9:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   9:03 PM

 

February 9, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  40° to 44°      SE MO  35° to 40°      South IL  35° to 40°     West KY  36° to 42°     NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:51 AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds.  A slight chance of light snow or a wintry mix late.  Best chance would be across southeast Missouri after midnight.  Whether it spreads further east is still questionable.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  30° to 35°      SE MO  25° to 30°      South IL  24° to 28°     West KY  28° to 32°       NW TN  30° to 34°
Wind direction and speed:  East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   10%      KY  10%       TN   10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered late (SE MO)
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Possible after midnight over SE MO
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Yes
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Monitor updates concerning a chance of a wintry mix.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:28 PM
Moonrise:   9:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:00 PM

 

 

February 10, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with a chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow changing to rain.  It may remain all rain over the southern half of the region.  Monitor the forecast for more specific details.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  43° to 46°      SE MO  38° to 42°      South IL  38° to 44°     West KY 43° to 46°     NW TN  43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  60%      MO  60%       IL   60%      KY  60%       TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Becoming numerous.
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Possible
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Yes
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Possible
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated? No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Icy roads are possible early in the day.  Wet roadways during the afternoon.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:50 AM

 

Sunday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.  Rain may mix with or change to snow or a wintry mix.  It may remain all rain over the southern half of the region.  Monitor the forecast for more specific details.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  34° to 36°      SE MO  30° to 35°      South IL  32° to 34°     West KY  34° to 38°       NW TN  34° to 38°
Wind direction and speed:  Variable wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   60%      MO  60%      IL   50%      KY  60%       TN   70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Yes
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor for the risk of icy roads.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   6:50 PM
Moonrise:   10:00 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:58 PM

 

There is lower than normal confidence in the forecast from Monday into Wednesday.

Some guidance indicates the potential of a winter storm.  Confidence in that happening is very low. 

Monitor updates.

 

February 11, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  A wintry mix or snow changing to rain.  It may remain all rain over the southern half of the region.  Monitor the forecast for more specific details.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 50°      SE MO  42° to 44°      South IL  40° to 45°     West KY  43° to 46°     NW TN  45° to 50°
Wind direction and speed:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  80%      MO  60%       IL   60%      KY  70%       TN  80%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Early in the day
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:49 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°      SE MO  34° to 36°      South IL  34° to 36°     West KY  35° to 40°       NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:  East and northeast at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   50%      MO   50%      IL   50%      KY  50%       TN   50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Patchy fog.  Monitor the risk of flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:30 PM
Moonrise:   10:30 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   11:58 PM

 

February 12, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying Low  (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  46° to 50°      South IL  45° to 50°     West KY  48° to 52°     NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%      MO  40%       IL   40%      KY  40%       TN  40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Monitor
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of flooding.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:48 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  Rain showers.  Rain may change to snow.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (20% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  35° to 40°      SE MO  25° to 30°      South IL  25° to 30°     West KY  32° to 36°        NW TN  40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed:  West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   40%      MO   40%      IL   40%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Monitor
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor the risk of flooding.  Monitor the risk of snow.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunset:   5:32 PM
Moonrise:   11:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   First Quarter
Moonset:   12:01 AM

 

February 13, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:   Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (10% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  46° to 48°      South IL  44° to 48°     West KY  44° to 48°     NW TN  46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed:  West at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel 0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3  Moderate
Sunrise:   6:47 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (10% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  33° to 36°      SE MO  30° to 34°      South IL  28° to 34°     West KY  34° to 36°        NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Monitor
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:33 PM
Moonrise:   11:41 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Gibbous
Moonset:   1:01 AM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast.

 

 

.

Today into tonight:  Accumulating winter precipitation is not anticipated.  Rapidly falling temperatures today could cause some black ice later this afternoon and tonight.  Black ice is simply moisture that is left over from the day’s rain.  It then freezes on parking lots and elsewhere.

Friday and Saturday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Saturday night into Wednesday: A complex weather pattern will develop.  We will have several waves of precipitation.  Temperatures could be cold enough for freezing rain, sleet, and snow.  That wintry mix may change to all rain (or should change to all rain).  The greatest concern will initially be late Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

Additional concerns may develop Sunday night and again Monday night.

Some guidance is showing a possible larger winter weather event on Tuesday night.  Needless to say, confidence is not all that great in how all of this unfolds.

Monitor updates moving forward.  Confidence in the forecast will increase with time.

 

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook!

The highest number possible on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

 

Daily outlook:

 

 

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

This graphic will be updated after 7 AM

 

 

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

 

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?

 

Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today:  A few storms could produce damaging wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes.  The risk at any given location is low.  Monitor watches and warnings.  I will be sending out app notifications if severe weather develops.

Friday through Tuesday:  No severe weather concerns.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 .

  1.   Additional heavy rain likely today.
  2.   A few thunderstorms could be severe.
  3.   Concerns about flash flooding and river flooding are increasing.
  4.   Additional precipitation chances arrive Sunday into the middle of next week.
  5.   Freezing rain, sleet, and snow chances.

 

Changes over the last 24 hours.

No major adjustments to temperatures.

I did adjust the wording on the wintry precipitation chances late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Overall, the core of the going forecast remains the same.

 

Confidence in the forecast

Confidence in the forecast today through Saturday night is high.

Confidence in the Sunday and Monday forecast is medium.

Confidence in the Tuesday and Wednesday forecast is very low.

 

Action?

Monitor updated watches and warnings.   Avoid flooded roadways.  Some flood or flash flood warnings are possible.  This is especially true where thunderstorms train over the same area.  This can enhance rain totals.

If a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued today then seek shelter until the storm passes.

Storms will be moving at speeds in excess of 70 mph.

 

Forecast Analysis and Numerical Model Guidance

Wow, the weather has just been crazy over the last few weeks.

Check out this image from last night.

You are looking at a radar image from southwest Missouri.

The pink boxes are tornado warnings.

The red and pink colors are freezing rain.  The white and blue is snow.  The green, yellow, and orange colors are intense thunderstorms.

Large hail was reported in the ice storm zone with severe thunderstorm warnings.  Severe thunderstorm warnings in the ice storm!

Amazing system.

 

 

We witnessed temperatures range from near zero to near 70 just in the last seven days.

Heavy rain pushed across our region over the past 24 hours.  A widespread one to three-inch rain event has been the end result.  Some areas will end up with more than three inches of rain.

A strong cold front is moving into the region this morning.

This front divides warm and moist air to the east from cold and drier air to the west.

Rapidly falling temperatures will occur behind the cold front.

Here is a temperature animation showing you the temperature drop.

 

 

The line of thunderstorms over the coming hours could produce some reports of damaging wind gusts.  There is some spin i the atmosphere, as well.  We may have a report or two of short-lived tornadoes.

The overall severe weather threat, at any given location, is small.

Monitor warnings.  As always, I will be sending out messages.

Once the squall line passes through the area we will see the atmosphere quickly dry out.

You can see that here on this dew point map.  The dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  It is a better measure than relative humidity.

Here is the mid-morning dew point map.  You can see 60+ degree dewpoints over our region.  That is a lot of moisture for the Month of February.

Now, check out the dew points for later this evening.  Dry air.

9 AM dew points

 

 

12 AM dew points

 

Sharply colder temperatures will be with us tonight into Saturday morning.

Lows tonight and tomorrow night will likely be in the teens across much of the area.  Some lower 20’s over our southern counties.

Lows Friday morning

Highs Friday

Saturday 6 AM temperatures

Sunday morning lows

 

A tricky forecast is unfolding for the Saturday night through Wednesday time-frame.

Some model guidance shows a full-fledged winter storm Tuesday/Wednesday.  Other models do not show that.

The new GFS has performed poorly over the last few months.  This new upgraded GFS is having significant errors.  I am not sure what is causing it.  Hopefully, they do not replace the old GFS immediately.

The new GFS shows significant snow in our region Tuesday/Wednesday.  Could it be correct?   Sure, it could be correct.  It does not currently have much support.

Let’s keep an eye on it.

Let me show you the ensembles.  The ensembles do not lend much support to what the new GFS is showing.

 

 

For now, there are not too many squares that agree on snow in our area.

Several do show snow over our northern counties.

I am carefully monitoring the trends.

This is not showing you the potential of a wintry mix Sunday morning and again Sunday night, Monday night, and perhaps Tuesday night.

 

 

Another set of ensembles

 

The Canadian model shows even less snow

 

See our local city-view radars for live data.  Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the visible satellite.  You can see thick clouds over our region.

 

 

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here is the latest WPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own in-house long-range forecast graphics further down in this blog update **

Days 6 through 10

The blue colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

Precipitation outlook

 

Days 8 through 14

Precipitation

 

 

The February update has been posted.  Temperature forecast from the long-range team.

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SPRING OUTLOOK

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature and precipitation outlooks

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Long Range Temperature Anomaly Forecast

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I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

Winter Outlook!

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

December temperature and precipitation outlook

January temperature outlook

February temperature outlook 

Winter snow outlook

 

.These products are for subscribers.

 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 


 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 681

First joining us tonight is Leslie Chapman-Henderson, CEO of FLASH (Federal Alliance for Safe Homes), to congratulate our very own James Spann on winning the 2019 National Weather Person of the Year award.   Leslie, thanks for joining us!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a retired National Weather Service WCM for Little Rock, Arkansas.  After many years of service, he retired in 2015.  John Robinson, welcome to the show!

Also joining us as Guest Panelist is is the Field Meteorologist and Executive Weather Producer for KOCO 5 First Alert Weather.  Mike Armstrong, welcome!

Discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • James wins WeatherPerson of the Weather 2019
  • American Airlines Flight 1420 crash of 1999
  • 1999 Arkansas tornado outbreak
  • Correlations between tornado fatalities and socioeconomic status?
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

Find me on Facebook!

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

Find me on Facebook!

Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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