Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 1, 2019: Non-subscriber update. Subscribers, see the update below this one. Warmer weather on the way.

 

 

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February 1, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy.  Rain showers and freezing rain early in the morning.  Ending west to east.  Temperatures will continue to rise on southerly winds.  Icy roads across portions of the region.  Temperatures will eventually rise above freezing area-wide.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:   High  (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 48°      SE MO  44° to 48°      South IL  42° to 46°      West KY  44° to 46°       NW TN  46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  10%      MO  10%      IL   20%      KY  40%       TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending west to east
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  Perhaps early in the day.  Temperatures over much of the region will have risen above freezing.
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Temperatures over portions of the region will have risen above freezing.
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Early in the morning, there could be icy roadways.  Temperatures over much of the region will have risen above freezing.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Icy roads across portions of the region.  Temperatures will eventually rise above freezing area-wide.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:59 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Not as cold.  A slight chance of drizzle.  Patchy dense fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High (80% confidence in the forecast).  Not as cold.
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  38° to 40°      SE MO  36° to 38°      South IL  33° to 36°      West KY  36° to 30°       NW TN  38° to 42°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:  25 to 35
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%      IL  0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   A few wet roadways if drizzle develops.  Dense fog could limit visibility.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:19 PM
Moonrise:   4:41 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   2:40 PM

 

February 2, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Patchy morning fog and perhaps drizzle.  Becoming partly cloudy.  Milder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High  (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°      SE MO  56° to 58°      South IL  54° to 58°      West KY  56° to 62°       NW TN  58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 5 t0 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%      IL    0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:   None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps some morning fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:58AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  44° to 46°      SE MO  43° to 46°      South IL  42° to 44°      West KY  43° to 46°       NW TN  44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel 0%      MO  0%      IL  0%      KY  0%       TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:21 PM
Moonrise:   5:31 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   3:31 PM

 

February 3, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Warm for January.  Breezy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  62° to 64°      SE MO  58° to 64°      South IL  56° to 60°     West KY  58° to 64°     NW TN  62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None t
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   2  Low
Sunrise:   6:57 AM

 

Sunday night Forecast:   Cloudy with rain showers likely.  Windy.  Mild for February.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  53° to 56°      SE MO  50° to 52°      South IL  50° to 54°     West KY  52° to 54°       NW TN  53° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   20%      KY  20%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Widely scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:   5:20 PM
Moonrise:   6:18 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waning Crescent
Moonset:   4:21 PM

 

February 4, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Warm.  Windy.  Spring-like temperatures.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  63° to 66°      SE MO  63° to 66°      South IL  63° to 66°     West KY  63° to 66°     NW TN  64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  40%      MO  40%      IL    40%      KY  50%       TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  N0
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.  Gusty winds.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.  Some rain showers are possible.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:56 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:   Cloudy with some rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium   (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  46° to 50°      SE MO  38° to 46°      South IL  36° to 42°     West KY  45° to 50°       NW TN  48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   40%      MO   40%      IL   40%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Rain is certainly a possibility and this could impact outdoor activities.
Sunset:   5:23 PM
Moonrise:   6:56 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   5:19 PM

 

February 5, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A bit cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  48° to 54°      South IL  48° to 54°     West KY  50° to 54°     NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed:  East and southeast at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?   Unlikely, but monitor updates.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   2  Low
Sunrise:   6:55 AM

 

Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Mild.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  50° to 54°      SE MO  50° to 54°      South IL  50° to 54°     West KY  50° to 54°       NW TN  50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South winds at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:   None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   5:24 PM
Moonrise:   7:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   New
Moonset:   6:14 PM

 

February 6, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with rain showers possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  60° to 64°      SE MO  58° to 62°      South IL  58° to 62°     West KY  58° to 62°     NW TN  60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  50%      MO  50%       IL   50%      KY  50%       TN  50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:54 AM

 

Wednesday night Forecast:  Rain likely.  Thunderstorms are possible.  Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  55° to 60°      SE MO  55° to 60°      South IL  55° to 60°      West KY  55° to 60°        NW TN  55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   60%      MO   60%      IL   60%      KY  60%       TN   60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Possible.
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Heavy rain.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor severe weather concerns.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset:   5:25 PM
Moonrise:   8:05 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   7:11 PM

 

February 7, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast
:  Showers and possible thunderstorms.  Heavy rain is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (59% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°      SE MO  58° to 62°      South IL  55° to 60°     West KY  56° to 62°     NW TN  60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  70%      MO  70%       IL   70%      KY  70%       TN  70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Is flash flooding anticipated?   Possible
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  Yes
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Heavy rain.  Flooding or flash flooding.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Monitor the threat of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:53 AM

 

Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy rain or snow showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:  MO Bootheel  23° to 26°      SE MO  20° to 25°      South IL  20° to 25°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   40%      MO   40%      IL   40%      KY  40%       TN   40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous early.  Ending west to east.
Is flash flooding anticipated?  Monitor
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   Monitor
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  Possible
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  Monitor
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Monitor snow chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunset:   5:26 PM
Moonrise:   8:35 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   8:07 PM

 

 

February 8, 2019
Friday’s Forecast
:  Mostly sunny and cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  34° to 36°      SE MO  32° to 34°      South IL  30° to 34°     West KY  32° to 36°     NW TN  34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index:   3  Moderate
Sunrise:   6:52 AM

 

Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear and cold.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  23° to 26°      SE MO  20° to 25°      South IL  20° to 25°     West KY  22° to 24°       NW TN  23° to 26°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 15 to 20
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:27 PM
Moonrise:   9:03 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   9:03 PM

 

February 9, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast
:  Partly sunny.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  42° to 44°      SE MO  38° to 44°      South IL  38° to 44°     West KY  38° to 44°     NW TN  42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:   3 Moderate
Sunrise:   6:51 AM

 

Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. and chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingMedium   (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  32° to 34°      SE MO  30° to 35°      South IL  30° to 35°     West KY  32° to 34°       NW TN  34° to 36
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30 to 40
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   0%      MO   0%      IL   0%      KY  0%       TN   0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is flash flooding anticipated? No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset:   5:28 PM
Moonrise:   9:32 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:00 PM

 

February 10, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast
:
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium  (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  58° to 62°      SE MO  53° to 56°      South IL  53° to 56°     West KY  56° to 60°     NW TN  58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  0%      MO  0%       IL   0%      KY  0%       TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:50 AM

 

Sunday night Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered showers again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  44° to 48°      SE MO  40° to 45°      South IL  40° to 44°     West KY  43° to 44°       NW TN  43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Not at this time.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   6:50 PM
Moonrise:   10:00 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   10:58 PM

 

February 11, 2019
Monday’s Forecast
:  Cloudy with a chance of showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLow  (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  45° to 50°      SE MO  44° to 48°      South IL  44° to 48°     West KY  46° to 50°     NW TN  46° to 52°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel  30%      MO  30%       IL   30%      KY  30%       TN  30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?   No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?  No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, not yet.  Monitor updates.
UV Index:   1  Low
Sunrise:   6:40 AM

 

Monday night Forecast:  Cloudy.  A chance of rain showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low   (30% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range:   MO Bootheel  36° to 40°      SE MO  34° to 38°      South IL  34° to 38°     West KY  36° to 40°       NW TN  36° to 40°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast:
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?   MO Bootheel   30%      MO   30%      IL   30%      KY  30%       TN   30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is flash flooding anticipated?  No
Will there be accumulating snow or ice?   No
Will non-accumulating snow or ice occur?  No
Are icy road conditions anticipated
?  No
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is lightning anticipated?  No
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Patchy fog.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, not yet.  Monitor updates.
Sunset:   5:30 PM
Moonrise:   10:30 AM
The phase of the moon:   Waxing Crescent
Moonset:   11:58 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

The wind speed and direction forecast.

 

 

.

Friday:  Freezing rain will come to an end area-wide this morning.  We will continue to see the freezing line shift northward with time.  It is not moving all that fast.

Icy patches remain on many roads that experienced freezing rain overnight.  Use care, especially on bridges.  There have been numerous accidents reported in the region.

Friday night into Wednesday:  Wintry precipitation is not anticipated.

Wednesday night into Friday:  Monitor updates.

 

Beau’s exclusive eight-day winter weather outlook!

The highest number possible on days 5, 6, 7, and 8 will be twenty-percent.

Daily outlook:

  1.   Any freezing rain will come to an end this morning.
  2.   I will be keeping an eye on the Wednesday night into Friday time-frame.  I can’t rule out some wintry weather.  Perhaps centered on Thursday.  Monitor updates.  Low confidence this far out.

 

 

 

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type.  In other words, melted precipitation totals.

This map takes us into Monday morning.

Not too much rain between now and then.  We have today’s rain that is on the way out and then perhaps a few spotty showers Sunday into Monday morning.

Higher rain chances arrive as we move through next week (see the second graphic).

 

 

Several chances of rain over the coming seven days.  Locally heavy rain, again.  A wet beginning to 2019.

 

 

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Click here for your interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

During winter weather be sure and click the winterize button above each city-view radar.  This will show you the precipitation type.

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Today through Tuesday:  No severe weather concerns.

Tuesday night into Wednesday night:  Lightning is possible.  Monitor the risk of severe thunderstorms.

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 .

  1.   Freezing rain ending today (for those who received freezing rain)
  2.   Warming trend.
  3.   Rain chances increase next week.  Locally heavy.
  4.   Active weather pattern to continue.

 

 Current conditions at 7 AM

 

Changes over the last 24 hours.

No major adjustments.

Overall, the pattern looks to remain active over the next three weeks.  Multiple systems to track.

 

Confidence in the forecast

High confidence in the forecast today into Saturday night.

Medium confidence in the forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

Low confidence in the Tuesday night through Thursday time-frame.

 

Action?

Watch for icy roads this morning in areas still below freezing.

 

Forecast Analysis and Numerical Model Guidance

An active weather pattern will continue well into February.

January was above normal in the precipitation department.

Here are the radar estimated rain totals for the Month of January.

 

 

Here is the precipitation anomaly map (below or above normal)

 

 

Many of you are wondering if we will see additional snow or ice threats.  Obviously, winter is not over.  There is still cold air in the charts.  A bit of a roller-coaster in the temperature department over the coming 15 days.

I can’t imagine that we are finished with the winter weather concerns.  With frequent precipitation events, the odds favor additional snow chances.

Portions of southern Illinois have now topped 19″ of snow for the season, thus far.

Many of you have not had nearly that much snow.  It just shows you that location, location, location is still important when it comes to winter weather.

Western Kentucky has received the heaviest snow over the last decade.  It was time for other portions of the region to get into the snow game.  It appears this year, thus far, has been the year of snow for parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

We had ice last night over the northern half of the region.  Numerous car accidents have been reported due mainly to freezing rain and sleet.

Bridges freeze first and they have created problems over the last 8 to 12 hours.

Temperatures have been slow to rise.  Many areas remain below freezing this morning.

The mildest air was situated over parts of southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.  Many areas were well above freezing.

The good news is that a strong warming trend will develop over the coming days.

Mostly upper 30’s to middle/upper 40’s today.  Mostly lower 50’s tomorrow.  Middle to upper 50’s by Sunday!  Monday will bring lower to middle 60’s.  Some areas may even be warmer than that.  What a change!

Here is the temperature departure animation.

Above or below normal?  A LOT of above normal temperatures on the way.

 

 

Let’s look at the GFS model temperature forecast numbers.

This won’t be exact but you get a general idea!  Warmer weather is on the way.

 

Saturday

 

Sunday

 

Monday

 

Tuesday

 

Wednesday

 

We do have several cold fronts that will bring rain chances to the area.

Some patchy fog and drizzle will be possible late tonight into early Saturday morning.  Overall, Saturday into Sunday should be dry.

Small rain chances Sunday night.

Better rain chances Monday into Thursday.  We may actually have rain chances almost every day next week.  Perhaps even some wintry weather late in the week.

 

Here is the GFS model animation that shows you the Monday/Tuesday precipitation event.

There remain some questions above rain chances Monday (esp across southeast Missouri).

At one time it appeared Monday might be a rain-out.  Some guidance indicates the rain may develop over us and to the east of us.

 

 

Here is another system that arrives next Wednesday/Thursday.

The GFS has, from time to time, shown a wintry mix with that event.  Way too far out to know for certain.  I will monitor trends.

 

 

Satellite

Today’s image is the water vapor satellite.  This shows you clouds and moisture.

 

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Today’s high-temperature forecast

 

Tonight’s low-temperature forecast

 

Tomorrow’s high-temperature forecast

 

Tomorrow night’s low-temperature forecast

 

Here is the latest WPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14-day temperature outlooks.

** NOTE:  See our own in-house long-range forecast graphics further down in this blog update **

Days 6 through 10

The blue colors indicate below normal temperatures.  The darker the blue the greater the chance of below normal temperatures.

Precipitation outlook

 

Days 8 through 14

Precipitation

 

 

Here are the daily temperature anomalies, thus far.  How many degrees above or below normal are temperatures?

 

 

The February update has been posted.  Temperature forecast from the long-range team.

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SPRING OUTLOOK

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature and precipitation outlooks

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Long Range Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Let’s look at the temperature anomaly forecast map from the long-range GFS model guidance.

This graphic shows you whether temperatures are forecast to average above or below normal.

Red shades indicate above normal temperatures.  Orange and red indicate much above normal temperatures.

Blue shades represent below normal temperatures.  Purple to pinkish represents much below normal temperatures.

The time-stamp is located in the upper left portion of the map animation.

Click the image to enlarge it.

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

.

Winter Outlook!

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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

December temperature and precipitation outlook

January temperature outlook

February temperature outlook 

Winter snow outlook

 

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 680

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the teaching professor in meteorology and the associate head of the undergraduate program in meteorology at The Penn State University. He is also the host, feature writer, and producer of Weather World, Penn State Meteorology Department’s weekday weather magazine show. He also produces a segment on Wednesday’s called WeatherWhys (WxYz).  In addition, he was an on-air storm analyst at The Weather Channel from 2002 to 2005 (just after Dr. John Scala was there) and was the chief meteorologist at the historic Franklin Institute Science Museum in Philadelphia from 1998 to 2002. He has also co-authored two books: “The Philadelphia Area Weather Book” and “A World of Weather: Fundamentals of Meteorology.”  Dr. Jon Nese, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Winter Storm in the South
  • The Franklin Institute Weather Co-Op Observing Center
  • Groundhog Day upcoming on Saturday
  • NWS employees struggling during the government shutdown
  • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
  • and more.

.

.

Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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