Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

August 3, 2018: Non-subscribers, your WeatherTalk blog update

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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given my personal attention during significant weather events.

 

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won’t load then try a nearby one. Click here.

August 3, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm and humid.  An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible.  Most of the area will remain dry.  A few locations will experiencing rain.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90     IL ~ 86 to 90     KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 86 to 90
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%      KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:01 AM

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.  Mild and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible before 8 PM.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 68     IL ~ 65 to 66      KY ~ 66 to 68      TN ~ 66 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 8:00 PM
Moonrise: 11:57 PM Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 12:17 PM

 

August 4, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm and humid.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.  There will be warm air aloft and that should shut down most of the chances of precipitation.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 92      KY ~ 88 to 92     TN ~ 88 to 92   Heat index values in the upper 90’s
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%      KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most.  An isolated storm possible.
Wind: South at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None for most.  An isolated wet road and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:02 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear with a few passing clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 68      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10%     TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM Last quarter
Moonset: 1:19 PM

 

August 5, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.  Warm.  A few widely scattered thunderstorms possible.  The best chance of thunderstorms will run from southeast Illinois into western Kentucky and Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 88 to 93     IL ~ 88 to 92      KY ~ 86 to 90     TN ~ 88 to 92    Heat index values of 98 to 104
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 20%      KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:03 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A few showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74      KY ~ 70 to 74     TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: South at 2 to 4 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 7:58 PM
Moonrise: 12:32 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 2:24 PM

 

August 6, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 90 to 95     IL ~ 90 to 94      KY ~ 90 to 94     TN ~ 90 to 94   Heat index values of 98 to 104
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20%     IL ~ 20%      KY ~ 20%     TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roads.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9 to 10 High
Sunrise: 6:04 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74      KY ~ 70 to 74     TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%     TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Summer storms can produce pockets of high winds
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunset: 7:57 PM
Moonrise: 1:12 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 3:29 PM

 

August 7, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%-60%     IL ~ 50%-60%      KY ~ 50%-60%     TN ~ 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  A few strong storms are possible.  Monday updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.  Showers and storms likely
UV Index: 5 to 7 Medium
Sunrise: 6:04 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 74     IL ~ 70 to 74      KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% to 50%    IL ~ 40% to 50%   KY ~ 40%  to 50%    TN ~ 50% to 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps numerous
Wind: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few strong storms are possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars
Sunset: 7:56 PM
Moonrise: 1:58 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 4:36 PM

 

August 8, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88      KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50%-60%     IL ~ 50%-60%      KY ~ 50%-60%     TN ~ 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Wind: West and southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roads.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely, but monitor updates.  If the front remains in the region then a few strong storms will be possible.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.  Showers and storms likely
UV Index: 6 to 8 Medium
Sunrise: 6:05 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  A widely scattered thunderstorm possible.  The front may move far enough south that precipitation chances end.  We will need to monitor that part of the forecast.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68      KY ~ 64 to 68       TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% to 30%    IL ~ 20% to 30%   KY ~ 20%  to 30%    TN ~ 20% to 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Widely scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:54 PM
Moonrise: 2:52 AM Waning crescent
Moonset: 7:54 PM

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

 

Here is the latest WPC / NOAA Rainfall charts

 

This graphic will not cover those wild swings in rainfall totals that occur from locally heavy thunderstorms.  These number will be greatly underdone where slow moving thunderstorms occur.

 

This is the seven day rainfall.

I believe this may be underdone.

WPC is not showing much with the cold front next week.

Locally heavy storms are certainly possible along the front.  The question will be coverage.  Scattered vs widespread.  This will need to be monitoring.

 

 

The GFS model is showing heavier rain next week than NOAA.

Keep in mind, this is a model.  Models are never exact.  I am just showing you what the model is spitting out for rain totals.

I do think we have a decent chance of rain along a cold front Tuesday/Wednesday.  Perhaps more than NOAA is currently showing.

 

 

 

 

.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one.

If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

ind with height and/or the increase of wind speed with height.  This is one ingredient when forecasting severe thunderstorms.

 

Today through Wednesday: An isolated thunderstorm is possible today in the region.  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

Warm air aloft will likely cap the atmosphere Saturday.  If a storm develops it would be isolated.

A few more storms are possible Sunday as the atmosphere becomes a bit more unstable.  A locally strong storm is possible.  The greatest chance of thunderstorms will be across southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Monday and Monday night will deliver a few widely scattered thunderstorms.  Severe weather is unlikely.  A strong storm is possible.

A cold front approaches the region Tuesday and Wednesday.  You can expect locally strong thunderstorms with the cold front.  The main concern will be lightning and gusty winds.  I can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm.  Monitor updates.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

The summer outlook have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.

Weather Headlines

  1. Hot and muggy
  2. A few storms over the coming days
  3. Cold front arrives Tuesday/Wednesday with increasing thunderstorm chances

 

The weather is turning hot and muggy.   Highs will move back above 90 degrees across the region for the weekend (upper 80’s to low 90’s today).  Heat index values will start to move into the upper 90’s to 104 range (mainly during the afternoon hours).

This will make for uncomfortable 11 AM to 8 PM activities.

The atmosphere will be unstable over the coming days, but there won’t be much in the way of lift.  You need lift to produce thunderstorms.

There will, however, be just enough lift to produce a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms.  The best chance will be during the heat of the day.  This is when we are most unstable.

Any thunderstorms that form could produce isolated downpours and gusty winds.  Lightning, of course.

A bit more lift arrives Sunday.  This will cause an increase in thunderstorm activity.  The chances in southeast Missouri will be lower than southeast Illinois into Kentucky and Tennessee.

The greatest rain chances Sunday (20% to 30%) will be across southeast Illinois and western Kentucky/Tennessee.  Thunderstorms on Sunday will produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.  Severe weather is unlikely.  I can’t rule out an isolated report of a down-burst (high winds).

Monday will be hot and muggy.  Isolated storms.

A cold front arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.  Lift comes with a cold front.  The warm and unstable air will be lifted upward and this will produce clouds and thunderstorms.

There are questions about the extent of precipitation activity.  Meaning, how widespread will the rain be or not be.

I know many of you need rain.  I will be rooting for the rain!

I have scattered to perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms.

PWAT values will be high.  Any storms that form will produce torrential downpours.  I can’t rule out isolated severe thunderstorms.  The main concern will be lightning and gusty winds.

 

 

Tuesday 7 PM PWAT values

This is plenty of moisture for locally heavy downpours.

Keep in mind, this is not showing you how much rain you will receive.  This is showing you how much moisture is in the atmosphere for thunderstorms to tap into.

 

 

Wednesday 7 AM PWAT values

 

 

The front should sag southward Wednesday night.  This will bring an end to the shower and thunderstorm activity.

I will need to monitor the fronts speed.  Typically, during the summer months, cold front don’t move all that fast.

Cooler and less humid air will follow the cold front.

Here is the GFS’s precipitation animation loop for part of next week.  The time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.

The GFS is a lower resolution model.  That means the rain coverage always looks a bit more than it actually is.

I just wanted to show you the basic idea of the timing of the rain event.

This is mainly Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.  Likely peaking Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

 

 

The GFS model is showing more rain that NOAA/WPC.

 

 

The EC model rainfall totals (another model)

Click image to enlarge.  Most of this falls Tuesday and Wednesdasy

 

 

 

The August forecast has been updated. Outlook definitions

Outlook definitions

EQ = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal.

 

 

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These videos are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

These videos are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 92 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.25″ to 0.50″

This outlook covers August 1st through August 6th

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Always keep in mind, slow moving summer thunderstorms can produce torrential rain. That could skew the rainfall outlook.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

And precipitation

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 

Temperature outlook for June through August.

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

July temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

August temperature and precipitation outlook

 

These graphics are for subscribers.

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 


A new weather podcast is now available!  Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website.  Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 652

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a weather legend, having spanned four decades as a broadcast meteorologist. He is a Fellow of the AMS. Joe Witte, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Athletes who are passionate about weather
  • What all is involved with TV weather internships
  • NASA’s intern program
  • KATV’s Ned Perme retiring after 34 years
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • Drake University sportscaster Larry Cotlar dies in Iowa flash flooding
  • and more!

 

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

 

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

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