4 PM video update
I am monitoring the risk of severe thunderstorms later this evening.
The main concern will be damaging winds. The greatest risk zone is in the yellow and orange. Orange being the higher of the two.
A line of thunderstorms will develop to our west and southwest over the coming hours. The line will move east and northeast.
Monitor potential watches and warnings.
The thick black line is simply my forecast area.
Dark green is a level one out of five risk. One being the lowest.
Yellow is a level two and orange is a level three.
Click image to enlarge.
This is the high resolution WRF model. This is future-cast radar. Timestamp upper left.
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April 13, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny, windy, and warm. Scattered showers possible, especially across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances elsewhere.
Temperatures: MO ~ 73 to 76 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 75 to 78 TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: A few scattered showers
Winds: South at 15 to 30 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time. Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
A few strong to severe storms are possible tonight and tomorrow. I would not be surprised if a few warnings were issued.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some locally heavy rain possible and gusty winds near storms. Some thunderstorms could become intense. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Increasing coverage overnight. Becoming widespread.
Winds: South at 10 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning. Monitor the threat of severe weather.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather is possible. The greater risk will be over southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, and western Tennessee The main concern would be damaging winds. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. A few reports of hail. Monitor watches and warnings.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. The later into the evening the greater the rain chances.
Sunset: 7:27 PM
April 14, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Early morning showers and thunderstorms pushing from west to east. There will be a lull before a second round of rain impacts portions of the region. The best chance of the afternoon rain will be east of the Mississippi River. Have a plan B in case it rains Saturday. I would not cancel my plans. I would monitor radars.
Temperatures: MO ~68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous before 9 AM. Coverage in the late morning and afternoon will depend on the speed of the front and a possible second wave of precipitation.
Winds: South winds becoming west at 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds over southeast Missouri may switch to west/southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of intense thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium during the morning and then LOW after 9 am.
Is severe weather expected? A few thunderstorms could become severe with high winds and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in the morning and then monitor the afternoon forecast.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Scattered showers. Greatest coverage will be across Kentucky and Tennessee. Especially the further east you travel. Turning cooler. Gusty winds. Showers will deminish as we push later into the night.
Temperatures: MO ~ 36 to 42 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 38 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered for Missouri and Illinois. Perhaps numerous over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky into portions of western Tennessee.
Winds: South and southwest winds becoming west at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case it rains. Monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:28 PM
April 15, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Cooler. A few showers possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 52 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 50 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Winds: West at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Colder. A slight chance of light showers or snow flurries.
Temperatures: MO ~ 33 to 36 IL ~ 32 to 35 KY ~ 34 to 38 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: West and northwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to perhaps a few wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:29 PM
April 16, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Intervals of clouds and sun. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 48 to 52 KY ~ 52 to 54 TN ~ 52 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Winds: North and northwest at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:18 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Frost possible. Chilly.
Temperatures: MO ~ 34 to 38 IL ~ 32 to 36 KY ~ 35 to 38 TN ~ 35 to 40
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:30 PM
April 17, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 64 to 66 TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:17 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Not as cold.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~ 46 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 50 TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:31 PM
April 18, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:16 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a shower.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 44 IL ~ 42 to 44 KY ~ 42 to 44 TN ~ 43 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Becoming west at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:31 PM
April 19, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northwest 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 38 to 44 TN ~ 38 to 44
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:32 PM
RAIN TOTALS
Let’s take a look at precipitation totals for the Friday through Saturday night event.
There were some adjustments over the last 24 hours.
Notice the high-resolution 3K NAM is showing almost no rain across portions of our region. That seems unlikely.
Locally heavy rain is possible in a few spots. A few severe storms are also a possibility. Damaging wind would be the primary concern.
The key to the heavy totals will be whether or not the system slows over our region. That is why the heaviest totals are indicated in Kentucky and Tennessee. That is where the front may slow.
It is possible that there will be two rounds of rain. One Friday night into early Saturday morning. A second round Saturday afternoon.
The second round may be centered more on Kentucky and Tennessee.
Either way, plan on rain as we move deeper into Friday night and Saturday morning. Hopefully, the front will push through the region quickly and we can salvage Saturday.
Have a plan B if you have outdoor plans Friday night and Saturday.
These totals won’t be exact, of course. Just take a general idea from the graphics.
The NAM model guidance
The GFS model guidance
The GEM model guidance
The EC model
NOAA/WPC rain totals forecast
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Friday into Saturday: Thunderstorms are likely Friday night. A few severe thunderstorms are possible across southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, and western Tennessee Friday night.
The risk of severe weather across the rest of southern Illinois and Kentucky is lower, but not zero.
The main concern is damaging winds. A few reports of hail will also be possible. There is a low-end tornado risk.
On Saturday, the risk of intense storms will shift into Kentucky and Tennessee. The main concern would be damaging winds. The Saturday threat is conditional on some heating occurring and instability building.
Sunday into Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I am monitoring April 21st through the 23rd for thunderstorms.
Here is the Storm Prediction Centers severe weather outlook for Friday and Saturday.
Light green is non-severe storms. Dark green is a level one out of five risk. Yellow is a level two out of five risk. Orange is a level three out of five risk. Red is a level four out of five risk. One is the lowest risk.
What does that mean? It means a few storms could become severe tonight. The greatest risk is across southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.
These outlooks can shift around a bit. Monitor updates.
Click images to enlarge
Let’s break that down a bit more.
Here is the Wind, hail, and tornado outlook for today and tonight (for our region the concern is tonight).
The Storm Prediction Center has the highest risk of damaging winds over extreme southern Missouri into Arkansas. That red and pink area represent the greatest risk. The brown and yellow are a lower risk zone. Again, this is for damaging winds.
The hail outlook
The red zone is the greatest hail risk zone. The hatched area means a few reports of very large hail are possible. That is to our west.
The tornado risk.
The greatest risk zone is the yellow and red (black hatched) zone. That is mainly in Arkansas. The green and brown zone are a low tornado risk zone.
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Weather Headlines
- Warm today with gusty winds.
- Spotty showers are possible this afternoon, but the bulk of the rain will hold off until tonight.
- Widespread showers and thunderstorms develop from west to east tonight. Locally heavy rain possible.
- A few intense thunderstorms are possible. Damaging wind will be the main concern.
- A possible second wave of rain Saturday afternoon and night (esp eastern counties).
It will be warm today with gusty winds. It is going to feel like spring.
Strong and gusty winds will be an issue today into Saturday, as well. You can expect numerous gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range and then higher gusts above 35 mph from time to time. These are non-thunderstorm winds. We could also have strong thunderstorm winds (tonight and Saturday).
The winds are because of a tight pressure gradient. An area of low pressure will strengthen, over the next 24 hours, to our northwest. This will tighten the barometric pressure gradient.
Rain chances:
Most of you are wondering about rain Friday into Sunday.
Most of today will likely remain dry. There will be some fast moving showers. The best chance through this afternoon will be across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
As we push towards Friday evening you will see showers and thunderstorms increase on the radars to our west and this will spread northeast and east with time. Some of these storms could become heavy later tonight.
If you have Friday evening plans monitor radars. The best chance of rain, during the evening, will be across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The rain will spread east with time.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will advance through the region as we move through Friday night. Rainfall totals of 0.40″ to 0.80″ will likely occur. Thunderstorms can always produce locally higher amounts.
Amounts could vary considerably.
A few thunderstorms could become severe tonight. The main concern would be damaging winds and perhaps some hail reports. There is a low-end tornado risk.
Monitor watches and warnings if they are issued.
Remember, a watch means to pay a bit more attention to the weather. A warning means to seek shelter.
Let’s look at CAPE numbers. CAPE is a measure of energy in the atmosphere. CAPE is basically fuel for thunderstorms.
You can see that CAPE spikes to our west later today and tonight. You can see an area of CAPE develop Saturday across portions of our region, as well. The CAPE on Saturday is not as high as today’s CAPE.
Timestamp upper left
Saturday and Saturday night
Don’t cancel your plans, but have a plan B.
A decent bulk of Saturday may remain dry. We will have a second round of showers and thunderstorms develop after the initial rain band that moves through our region late tonight into the early morning hours of Saturday.
The biggest question for Saturday will be the second wave of showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will remain to our west during the morning hours.
Some of the thunderstorms Saturday afternoon could also be intense with high winds. There is a risk of hail, as well. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. As always, monitor updates. It only takes one storm to cause problems.
As the front pushes east, during the morning and afternoon, another band of showers and thunderstorms will likely form. This would most likely be across southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. I can’t rule out activity in southeast Missouri but the odds just aren’t as great as areas to the east.
If you have plans Saturday then have a plan B and plan accordingly. I would not cancel plans. I would monitor radars.
Sunday into Sunday night will be cooler with quite a few clouds and a couple of light rain showers.
Temperatures Sunday night and Monday night will be in the 30’s. Frost is again possible, especially if clouds clear.
Let’s look at some future-cast radars.
Here is the NAM 3K model guidance future-cast radar.
The time stamp is located in the upper left portion of the animation. Click the image to enlarge.
GFS guidance future-cast radar. Another model.
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 638
Our guest WeatherBrain for this episode is Matt Solum. Matt is the Decision Support Services Program Manager at Western Region Headquarters of the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, UT. Matt was in the California State Operations Center, basically the state EOC, supporting their full activation as a result of the fires in southern California. Their team was providing forecast information primarily for the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) and FEMA as it was a joint operation. They also provided weather information to other partners in the room including EPA, CalTrans, DOT, CalEPA, etc. He was deployed to both the October fires and the massive/prolonged December fires. Welcome to WeatherBrains, Matt.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 101 at Thermal, CA, and 2 at Raco, MI
- Relatively calm weather across US
- Threat for severe wx in Lower Mississippi River Valley on Friday
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
