Weather Blog Post
Last Updated: Jul 07, 2019 9:00 PM

Daily WeatherTalk schedule

Click schedule for a larger view. Keep in mind, during active weather this schedule will change. There will be additional updates outside of what has been posted here.

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city view radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the city radars won't load then try a nearby one. Click here.

 

September 11, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A few clouds from time to time.  Pleasant temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 80     IL ~ 76 to 80       KY ~ 76 to 80      TN ~ 78 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Wind: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 7 Moderate to high
Sunrise:  6:34 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 62      IL ~ 58 to 62       KY ~ 58 to 62      TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Small chance of a light shower.
Wind:  Northeast and east at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog could lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:09 PM
Moonrise: 8:34 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  8:43 PM

 

September 12, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Mild temperatures.  An isolated light shower possible over western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee.  Most will remain dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 76 to 80     IL ~ 76 to 80       KY ~ 76 to 80      TN ~ 76 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Small chance of a shower.
Wind: E NE at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 8  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:35 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Clearing overnight.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 60 to 65      TN ~ 60 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  If fog forms there would be lower visibility
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:07 PM
Moonrise: 9:39 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  9:17 PM

 

September 13, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 86     IL ~ 82 to 86       KY ~ 82 to 86      TN ~ 82 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind: Northeast at 4 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 to 8 High
Sunrise:  6:36 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 64      IL ~ 60 to 64      KY ~ 60 to 64      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Perhaps patchy fog reducing visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:06 PM
Moonrise: 10:44 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  9:52 PM

 

September 14, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 86     IL ~ 84 to 86       KY ~ 84 to 86      TN ~ 84 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8 High
Sunrise:  6:37 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.    Mild.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 66      IL ~ 62 to 64       KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:04 PM
Moonrise: 11:45 AM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  10:29 PM

 

September 15, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 86     IL ~ 84 to 86       KY ~ 84 to 86      TN ~ 84 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index:  8 High
Sunrise:  6:37 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 66      IL ~ 64 to 66       KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Wind:  North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?   No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:03 PM
Moonrise: 12:45 PM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  11:08 PM

 

September 16, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 86     IL ~ 84 to 86       KY ~ 84 to 86      TN ~ 84 to 86
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None.
Wind:  North and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise:  6:38 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 66      IL ~ 64 to 66       KY ~ 64 to 66      TN ~ 64 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%     IL ~ 0%       KY ~ 0%      TN ~  0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Wind:  North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:01 PM
Moonrise: 1:41 PM  Waxing Crescent
Moonset:  11:51 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

This graphic takes us through next Monday morning.

Check out the East Coast. A catastrophic flood event is going to happen in some towns and cities.  I would not be surprised to see some areas receive 20 to 30 inches of rain.

Rain is not anticipated locally through Friday.  Small chance of a light shower tonight and Wednesday.

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Calm weather.

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Some clouds.  Calm weather for our region.
  2. Hurricane Florence and its eventual track

The main weather story over the coming days will be the quiet weather.

We will have some clouds today into Wednesday.  There is a small chance of an isolated shower or two tonight and Wednesday.  That would mainly be over western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Odds favor your county remaining dry.

Temperatures will be pleasant with highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's.  Overnight lows will be on the cool side.  There could also be patchy fog over the coming mornings.  We had some fog this morning.

Dry weather should last into the weekend.  We may start to see clouds increase by Sunday or Monday.

The next big weather story is Hurricane Florence.  A monster hurricane off the East Coast.  This system is going to cause widespread damage as it moves into the southeast United States.  The Carolina's into Virginia appear to be the target of the center of the storm.

The impacts will extend way beyond the center.  Widespread flash flooding, river flooding, damaging winds, and tornadoes will likely occur with this hurricane.  Some areas will likely receive more than 20 inches of rain.

The latest model guidance attempts to bring the remnants of this system into the Ohio Valley.   It is premature to dismiss this or accept it.  The model guidance is not in agreement as to the exact track.

I am forecasting the system to stall over the southeast United States for 48 hours.  If it does stall, which appears likely, some areas will be devastated by the flooding.  Not a good situation for our friends on the East Coast.

This is the morning satellite view of Florence

Click to enlarge

 

 

The National Hurricane Center will be issuing forecasts on this system.

Here is their link  CLICK HERE

 

 

Spotter classes

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long-range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

Outlook definitions

EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

 

 

 

The September forecast has been updated. 

 

Outlook definitions

EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

 

 

Precipitation

 

 

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 


 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.  It is not an exact science.  There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

 

 

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 85 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.30" to 0.60"

This outlook covers September `0th through September 16th

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00" and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10" of rain is anticipated.

Obviously, the remnants of Gordon, mixing with an incoming cold front, is going to produce some large rain totals in and near our region.

One to three inches of rain will likely fall.  There will be pockets of greater than three inches.

 

 

 

 

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 83 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.30" to 0.60"

This outlook covers September 17th through September 23rd

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00" and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10" of rain is anticipated.

 

 

Outlook definitions

EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.50" to 0.80"

This outlook covers September 14th through September 27th 

 

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00" and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10" of rain is anticipated.

 

 

First glance at fall!

Outlook definitions

EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

 

 

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

 

 

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

 

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

 

Outlook definitions

EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

 

 

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

 

 

 


 

 

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 659

Dr. Jack Davis, our Guest WeatherBrain for this episode of our netcast, is the professor of history at the University of Florida and a Pulitzer Prize-winning author of the book The Gulf: The Making of an American Sea. His areas of specialization include US Environmental History, Modern US, US South, Florida History, and Sustainability Studies. He has penned two other books: An Everglades Providence: Marjory Stoneman Douglas and the American Environmental Century and Race Against Time: Culture and Separation in Natchez Since 1930.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 113 at Death Valley, CA, and 24 at Stanley, ID
  • Hurricane Gordon making landfall in north central Gulf Coast
  • Typhoon Jebi smashes Japan
  • Excessive rain along front from Colorado to western Great Lakes
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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Find me on Twitter!

2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.