Weather Blog Post
Last Updated: Jul 07, 2019 9:01 PM

May 25, 2017: Focus of this discussion is on the potential for severe weather this weekend.
 
If you have camping plans, Friday night into Sunday morning, then please make sure you have several ways to receive information.
 
I will be utilizing the texting service throughout the event. Please make sure your accounts are up to date. Sign into your account and make sure everything looks okay. Have text option one turned on. That would be Weather One (see images in the comment section). Sign into your account at www.weathertalk.com
 
If you have not registered for text messages then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
 
Today through Friday afternoon:
 
Not anticipating weather concerns through Friday morning.
 
Friday afternoon the atmosphere will be capped. That means a warm layer of air aloft. That should help squash organized severe weather on Friday. I can't rule out a scattered shower or thunderstorm on Friday, but it appears that would be the exception rather than the rule.
 
Friday night and Saturday morning:
 
Some guidance attempts to pop an MCS over Nebraska and Kansas. This complex of thunderstorms would then move southeast into portions of Missouri and Illinois. Confidence of this happening is low. If it were to happen then damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes would be possible.
 
The area of concern for Friday night into Saturday morning would likely be north of Perry County, Missouri eastward towards Evansville, Indiana.
 
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night:
 
A severe weather event is possible. The main concern would be damaging winds, large hail, and even tornadoes. Heavy rain, as well. Frequent cloud to ground lightning.
 
If you have camping plans this weekend, then monitor updated information. Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather information.
 
Storms will approach from the west/northwest and move into our area ahead of a frontal boundary.
 
The timing of the thunderstorms is uncertain, but it appears anywhere from 4 pm on Saturday into the wee morning hours of Sunday.
 
The system should exit our region on Sunday. A few remaining showers are possible Sunday afternoon. Monday's forecast is dry.
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http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link---
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Gusty winds developing.  A few evening showers or thunderstorms ending.  A remaining chance for a few showers over southeast Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Otherwise, a few clouds and patchy fog late.  Cool temperatures for the region.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 50 to 55     IL ~ 50 to 55     KY ~ 54 to 56      TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  Northwest becoming west at 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph.  Some brief higher gusts possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  this forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  (early )  IL ~ 40% (early)    KY ~ 50%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Widely scattered over most of the area. More numerous over southeast Illinois and eastern counties in the region (including northwest Kentucky and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars.

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May 25, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Morning clouds over southeast Illinois and portions of western Kentucky.  Otherwise, partly cloudy.  A few shwoers possible over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.   A Pleasant day, overall (once clouds exit).
Temperatures:   MO ~  70 to 74      IL  70 to 74       KY  70 to 75     TN  72 to 76
Winds:  Morning winds of west and northwest at 7 to 14 mph.  Afternoon winds from the west and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.

Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered showers for southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  A few passing clouds.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Patchy fog might reduce visibilities in a few locations.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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May 26, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  Periods of passing clouds.  Warmer.  More humid.  Windy, at times.  A 20% to 30% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:   MO ~  80 to 84   IL  80 to 84       KY  80 to 84     TN  80 to 84
Winds:  South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  Monitor udpates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor radars.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70     IL ~ 65 to 70      KY ~ 65 to 70      TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds:  Southwest at 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Locally heavy downpours and lightning.  I will be monitoring the risk for a few intense thunderstorms with hail and high winds.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.  I can't rule out a few strong thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%    KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Perhaps scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor updated forecasts.

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May 27, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Muggy.  A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~  80 to 85   IL  80 to 85       KY  80 to 85     TN  80 to 85
Winds:  Southwest wind at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  A few storms could produce hail and high winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  Yes.  There is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%    IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%    TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy during the evening hours.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68     KY ~ 66 to 70      TN ~ 66 to 70
Winds:  Southwest at 8 to 16 mph.  Winds may shift out of the west and northwest late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Gusty winds.  Hail.
Is severe weather expected? Yes.  Some thunderstorms could become severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%  IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.

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May 28, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A 50% chance of morning showers and thunderstorms.  A 30% for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~  75 to 80   IL  75 to 80       KY  75 to 82     TN  76 to 82
Winds:  West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 50%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%    TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Clearing.   Perhaps some patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58      TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds:  Northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  If fog forms, then some lower visibility in a few locations.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%   TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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May 29, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  A few passing clouds.  A pleasant day anticipated.
Temperatures:   MO ~  75 to 80    IL  75 to 80      KY  78 to 84     TN  78 to 82
Winds:  West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60     KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%  IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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May 30, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny. A  slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:   MO ~  75 to 80    IL  75 to 80      KY  78 to 84     TN  78 to 82
Winds:  West winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.

Is severe weather expected?  No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60     KY ~ 55 to 60      TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No

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Don't forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.

Wednesday night through Thursday night:  At this time, severe weather is not anticipated.  We will, however, have a few chances for lightning (see the day by day forecast above).   Evening thunderstorms on Wednesday could produce small hail.

Friday and Friday night:  A few thunderstorms are possible, especially on Friday night.  A complex of storms might form over Missouri and Arkansas.  If this does form, then some of that activity could move into our local area.  Lower than normal confidence on the Friday/Friday night part of the forecast.

Saturday into Saturday night:  I am monitoring for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms.  Monitor updates.  The atmosphere may become a bit more unstable this coming weekend.  Be sure and check back for updates.

Sunday into Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Small chance for lightning on Sunday (after 7 am).  There could be storms before 7 am.  That is included in the Saturday and Saturday night part of the forecast.

Weather Analysis for the coming week:

Wednesday night:

Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will come to an end over most of the area on Wednesday evening.  A few showers may remain over southeast Illinois into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  The upper level low will be slow to exit these areas.  Elsewhere rain should come to an end.

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link---

Did you see the satellite loop today?  The clouds had an appearance of a pinwheel.  Why was that?  A large upper-level low passed over our area.  Upper-level lows are often associated with cooler temperatures and spotty showers and thunderstorms.  Rainfall, with greater coverage, is usually associated with the eastern portion of the system.  That happened in our region today.

You can see the upper-level low on the upper air chart.  The closed black line.

Click image to enlarge

Evening thunderstorms on Wednesday could produce pea to dime size hail.

Thursday into Friday:

Warm conditions with some passing clouds can be expected for both Thursday and Friday.  Rain chances should remain at 20% or less on both days.  You can expect highs to rise into the 70's on Thursday and into the 80's on Friday.  Decent weather for late May.

A cap or a lid should keep most of the area dry on Friday.  Warm air aloft.

Thursday high temperatures (might be a bit higher than this map shows)

Friday high-temperature map

There will be a few more clouds on Friday night.  I can't rule out some late night thunderstorms over our northern counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  It appears the heavier activity may remain to our north.  I will keep an eye on the forecast.  Confidence is a bit lower on the Friday night forecast.

Saturday and Saturday night:

A cold front will enter the region on Saturday into Saturday night.  This front will become the focus for thunderstorm development.  Some of the storms could become severe with hail and high winds.

There could be a cap on Saturday, as well.  See graphic below.  There remains some question on this subject.

Instability appears to be sufficient for heavy thunderstorms.  PWAT values will be high.  That means there will be a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.  Lift index values should drop below -8.  CAPE values of 2000 and above.  Wind shear will be strong enough to warrant our attention.

Dew point map

Muggy air on Saturday.

and PWAT map

These ingredients point towards the risk for some strong thunderstorms.

Not sure on the cap.  There will be a cap on Friday.   That will keep a lid on thunderstorm activity.  We will have to monitor the cap on Saturday, as well.

Understanding the cap.

Here are some of those ingredients.

Click the images for a larger view

Lapse rates.  Higher lapse rates are an indicator of hail potential and updraft potential.  These are some fairly high numbers.  If storms can form then they should not have any problem rapidly becoming strong.

This next image is for surface based CAPE.  Higher CAPE numbers equal more energy for thunderstorms to tap into.

NAM shows 4000+ CAPE numbers.  Those are high numbers (if they verify).

This next image is the bulk shear numbers.  Wind shear.  Wind shear is one ingredient for thunderstorm development.

This next image is the supercell composite.

This next image is the lifted index values.  Another severe weather model parameter.  These are large numbers.

The Storm Prediction Center already has a portion of the region outlined for a severe weather risk on Saturday.  I am sure this will need adjusting.  Monitor updates.

I would not be surprised if this shifted northward just a tad.  We will see.  A couple of days to monitor.

It is interesting to note that the NAM pops a complex of storms north of the front on Saturday.  It shows areas south of the front sitll capped at 7 pm.  Still early to know for higher confidence on how Saturday/Saturday night plays out.

Rain and thunderstorm chances will diminish on Sunday.  We may still have showers and storms in the morning, keep that in mind.

If the front pushes far enough south and east then our rain chances will exit quicker.  I can't rule out some showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, but coverage should be diminishing as we move through the day.

Dry weather is forecast for Monday.  Temperatures mostly in the 75 to 80-degree range.  It should be a nice day for outdoor events.


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We have regional radars and local city radars - if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link---

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars - click here

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2014-12-21_20-26-42
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users.  The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly.  ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed.  The app allows instant delivery.

Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app.  The answer to that is, yes.  The Android app will automatically allow that to happen.  On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings.  Make sure the green tab is OFF.  Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app.  If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here

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2015-01-15_11-23-23

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970's.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor's of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma" Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the "hype" that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

2014-11-24_13-59-16

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic "heads up" concerning incoming weather conditions