Weather Blog Post
Last Updated: Jul 07, 2019 8:59 PM

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Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

  1. Go to storm tracking tools.  Radars, lightning, & satellite.
  2. Go to today's forecast
  3. Go to the city-view graphic-casts
  4. Go to the severe weather outlook
  5. Go to the weather forecast discussion
  6. Go to the model future-cast radars
  7. Go to videos
  8. Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature & precipitation graphics
  9. Go to spring and summer outlooks.
  10. Go to Weatherbrains
  11. View our community charity work.  Your subscription dollars help support these causes.
  12. County maps.  I made a page with county maps.  Some of you requested this.

Do you have questions or suggestions?  If so, please email me.  Beaudodson@usawx.com

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Friday:  No
Saturday:  Monitor updates.  Some storms are likely Saturday night.
Sunday:  Monitor updates.  We will have thunderstorms on Sunday.  Some could be intense.  The greatest risk of severe weather will be Sunday afternoon.
Monday:  Monitor.  Lightning is possible.
Tuesday:  Monitor.  Storms are possible.
Wednesday:  Monitor.  Storms may linger into Wednesday.  Lower confidence on Wednesday's forecast.
Thursday:  No
Friday:  No

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  1.    Damp/wet ground conditions.
  2.    River flooding continues in many areas.  Low-land flooding.

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Friday through Sunday

  1.  Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.  Lightning is likely Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.
  2.  Is severe weather in the forecast?  Monitor updates.  Intense storms are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning.  A few storms could be near severe levels.  Severe storms are possible Sunday afternoon.  Monitor updates.
    *  The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor.  Storms will produce heavy rain.  Isolated flooding issues may develop.

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Monday through Friday

  1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Yes.   Lightning is likely Sunday into Sunday evening.  Lightning is likely Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Monitor Monday and Wednesday's forecast.
  2. Is severe weather in the forecast?  Monitor.  A few storms could be intense on Tuesday.  Monitor updates.
    The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1" hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
  3. Is flash flooding in the forecast?  Low risk.  I am monitoring Tuesday for locally heavy rain.

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Click here

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

County Maps:  Click Here

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ATTENTION.  A major app update will be released soon.  Watch for announcements.

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Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No

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What changes might occur in the forecast?

There are questions surrounding the Sunday afternoon forecast.  Will storms redevelop?  That will need to be closely monitored.  Storms could be intense.

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May 17, 2019
Friday's Forecast: Mostly sunny.  There could be some cumulus clouds.  Warmer and humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  86° to 88°     SE MO  84° to 88°     South IL  84° to 86°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  84° to 86°     West KY  86° to 88°    NW TN  86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph during the morning increasing to 10 to 20 mph and gusty during the afternoon.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 9 Very high
Sunrise:   5:45 AM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear and mild.  Patchy fog near water.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  64° to 66°     SE MO 64° to 66°     South IL  63° to 66°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  63° to 66°     West KY    63° to 66    NW TN    63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed:  South wind at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL  0%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:   7:58 PM
Moonrise:  5:41 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 4:39 AM

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May 18, 2019
Saturday's
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Some increase in clouds during the afternoon.  Warm and humid.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  86° to 88°     SE MO  84° to 88°     South IL  84° to 86°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  84° to 86°     West KY  86° to 88°    NW TN  86° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  0%     Southeast MO  0%     IL   0%   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  0%     Western KY  0%    NW TN  0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 10 Very high
Sunrise:   5:44 AM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Increasing clouds from west to east.  Thunderstorms developing late over southeast Missouri.  Showers and thunderstorms moving east.  Some storms could be intense with high winds and hail.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  64° to 68°     SE MO 64° to 68°     South IL  64° to 68°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  64° to 68°     West KY    64° to 68°    NW TN    65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:  South and southwest 8 to 16 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     Southeast MO  60%     IL  50%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  40%    NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Increasing coverage over southeast Missouri.  A line of showers and storms should develop and push into the region.  Some questions to how far east it will move Saturday night.  Our eastern counties may stay dry most of the night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Heavy rain.  Lightning.  Some storms could produce high wind and hail, especially over southeast Missouri.  Elsewhere, monitor.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No.  Late at night, however, you should monitor the weather conditions.  Especially if you are camping our outdoors.  Some storms will push into southeast Missouri and perhaps eastward of there, as well.
Sunset:   8:00 PM
Moonrise:  7:56 PM
The phase of the moon:  Ful Moon
Moonset: 5:49 AMibbous
Moonset: 4:39 AM

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May 19, 2019
Sunday's Forecast
:  Morning clouds with showers and thunderstorms.  A lull in the rain.  Warm and breezy.  A chance of redevelopment Sunday afternoon.  Some storms could be intense.  Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  78° to 82°     SE MO  78° to 84°     South IL  78° to 82°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  78° to 82°     West KY  78° to 82°    NW TN  78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 86°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  60%     Southeast MO  60%     IL   60%   Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  60%     Western KY  60%    NW TN  60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous during the morning.  Scattered during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Some storms could be intense with high winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.  Lightning and heavy rain, as well.  Monitor updates.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and then monitor updates/radars.
UV Index: 6 to 7 High
Sunrise:   5:43 AM
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Sunday night Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  An evening thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel  58° to 62°     SE MO 58° to 62°     South IL  58° to 62°     Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  58° to 62°     West KY    58° to 62°    NW TN    60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed:  West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation?  MO Bootheel  10%     Southeast MO  10%     IL  30%    Northwest KY (near Indiana border)  30%     Western KY  30%    NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean?   A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won't rain.  It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation:  Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some intense storms are possible early in the evening.  This would mainly be over our eastern counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars.
Sunset:   7:58 PM
Moonrise:
The phase of the moon:
Moonset:

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Monday
: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Chance of storms will be 20% during the day and 30% at night.  High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.  Low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.  West at 7 to 14 mph.
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TuesdayMedium confidence. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Chance of storms will be 40%  during the day and 50% at night.  High temperatures in the lower 80s.  Low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.  South winds at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
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Wednesday
Medium confidence. Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Chance of storms will be 40%  during the day and night.  High temperatures in the lower 80s.  Low temperatures in the lower 60s.  South winds at 7 to 14 mph
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Learn more about the UV index readings.  Click here.

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Wind forecast

Click images to enlarge them

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Missouri

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Illinois

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Kentucky

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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Tennessee

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION:  I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own.  Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above. 

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Friday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

Saturday: Severe storms are not anticipated during the day.  Intense storms are possible late Saturday night.  They would move east to west across the region.  Monitor updates.  A low risk of severe weather.

Sunday:  Storms are possible Sunday morning.  A second round of storms may develop during the afternoon.  The second round could be severe.  Lower risk with the morning round.  Monitor updates.

Monday:  An isolated thunderstorm is possible.  Lightning will be the main concern.

Tuesday:  A stronger storm system takes shape to our west.  Thunderstorms may push into our region.  Monitor updates.  Some storms could be intense.

Wednesday:  Storms may linger into Wednesday although confidence is lower.

Thursday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

Friday:  Severe storms are not anticipated.

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Today's outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk.  Yellow is a level two risk.  Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk.  Red is a level four (moderate) risk.  Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk.  Five is the highest risk.  Light green is not assigned a number.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow's outlook.

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk.  Yellow is a level two risk.  Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk.  Red is a level four (moderate) risk.  Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk.  Five is the highest risk.  Light green is not assigned a number.

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Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts.  That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne.  Green is on.  Red is off.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

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24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Days one through seven added together.  Seven-day rainfall totals.

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  1.   Warm temperatures.  Enjoy!
  2.   Thunderstorms likely late Saturday night into Sunday.  Some could be strong.
  3.   Another round of storms next Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Current conditions.

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Weather

June forecast has been updated.

June precipitation outlook

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Shorter update today.  I am traveling.

I do want you to pay attention to changing weather conditions late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

I am mostly concerned about Sunday afternoon.  A few storms could be severe.

Thanks!

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Great news!  Today will be another day with widespread 80s.  It will feel more like early summer than late spring.

I know many of you have been waiting for this.

GFS Friday high-temperature forecast

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GFS Saturday high-temperature forecast

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GFS Sunday high-temperature forecast

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Today is a travel day for me.  I will try to post additional maps this afternoon.  Let me get to destination A and then settle in!

I am closely monitoring the potential of locally intense thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.  This is not a perfect set-up for severe weather.  With that said, if the ingredients do come together at the same time then severe storms will occur.

The latest model guidance shows some of the better dynamics pushing off to the east on Sunday morning.  The front remains west of us.  The atmosphere does become unstable during the late morning and afternoon.

That leaves some question as to what happens after the initial round of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

If the atmosphere does recharge, as some models indicate, then we will likely have some severe storms.

At this point, it is still too early to know the finer details of the forecast.

This is another conditional severe weather risk day.  What does conditional mean?  It means that the atmosphere has to recharge after the initial round of precipitation.  That has been the theme all year.  We had two tornado events.  Both were conditional days that destabilized.  We have had five or six potential days that did not destabilize.  Potential meaning there could have been severe storms.

 

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Again, as a reminder, these are models.  They are never 100% accurate.  Take the general idea from them.

Timestamps upper left.

Here is the lower resolution NAM model and then the higher resolution NAM 3K below it.

Timestamp upper left.

Click the animations to enlarge them.

Click the animations to enlarge them.

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Here is the high-resolution WRF model guidance.

Click the animations to enlarge them.

Looking even further out.  The GFS is a long-range model.

The GFS model is a lower resolution model.  It makes the rain coverage appear larger.

The models above are higher resolution models.

Timestamp upper left.  Click the animation to enlarge it.

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These maps update several times a day.  Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area.  They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

The Ohio Valley video

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This video is a bit more meteorologically technical.  An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.
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Long Range Video

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Missouri Valley Video

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I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team.  They are excellent long-range forecasters.  These are more detailed than the images above.

Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.
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Initial comments from the long-range team.

Key Points:

  • Heavy rainfall over the last 24 hours was observed in a band from central Iowa, northern Illinois, and Indiana, northwestern into central Ohio, as well as central extending into southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky.
  • Models are in good agreement about a strong, persistent southeast ridge with a western trough over the next 2 weeks setting up an active pattern for much of the Ag Belt.  This set up allows for southwest flow to develop over much of the Ag Belt giving storm systems a continual avenue to flow down.  The result is a wet pattern for the majority of the Ag Belt, in particular, the northern and central Plains.
  • Over the next 2 weeks, above average warmth is expected in the southeast Ag Belt as this region will be under greater influence of the upper-level ridge.  On the other hand, troughing in the northern/ central plains will lead to cooler temperatures over the next 2 weeks.
  • A very active period of weather is expected for the remainder of May as noted in our Storm Dates.  This will allow for an increased precipitation risk for much of the Ag Belt.  Storm-induced warming will also be seen ahead of these systems allowing for further warming, especially in eastern and southern portions of the Ag Belt.

 

Week one and two precipitation anomalies.

You can see if the models agree or disagree.  If all three models agree then confidence is higher in the eventual outcome.

Brown is below normal precipitation.  Green is above normal precipitation.

GEFS is a model ensemble.

EPS is the European model suite.

Click image to enlarge them.

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90" to 1.20"

This outlook covers May 16th through the 23rd

For some reason, these two were not updated by the long-range team today.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL.  For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00" and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25" of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 80 degrees

Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90" to 1.20"
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This outlook covers May 23rd through the 29th

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00" and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25" of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 60 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70" to 2.40"
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This outlook covers May 24th through June 6th 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00" and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10" of rain is anticipated.
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Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
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May temperature and precipitation outlook

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Euro is a model.

Blue is below normal temps.  Yellow/orange are above normal temps.

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June temperature outlook

June precipitation outlook

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July temperature outlook

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July precipitation outlook


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August temperature outlook

August precipitation outlook


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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working?  Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.  Click here.

College of Dupage satellites.  Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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Did you know that you can find me on Twitter?  Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.

My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).

I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad.  When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory  and WeatherTalk LLC.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
To learn more visit their website. Click here.
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WeatherBrains Episode 695
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onight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a filmmaker and documentarian of “The Boy With the Pop Bottle on His Head”.  He is the drummer for the legendary gospel group “The Dixon Singers” of Hazlehurst, MS.  In his spare time, he loves to go cycling on his varsity Schwinn bike.  Steve Collins, Welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is the long-time radio voice of The Weather Channel.  She is an accomplished weather historian and runs the weather website “Tornado Talk”.  Jennifer Narramore, welcome to WeatherBrains!

  • Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
    • TV on-air mets and the issue of lack of time throughout the day
    • National Weather Round-Up
    • The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
    • and more!

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Link to their website https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

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Find Beau on Facebook!  Click the banner.

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Find Beau on Twitter!   Share your weather photos!  @beaudodson

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