Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

February 10th and 11th: Spotty showers over the weekend

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog


February 10, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
: Windy.  Strong and gusty winds.  Patchy fog possible.  Rising temperatures overnight.  Drizzle possible late.  Becoming cloudy.  Not as cold.  A 20% of a shower after 4 am.  Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated. Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%  IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%   TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated to perhaps spotty.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify
Temperatures:  MO ~ 46 to 52   IL ~ 46 to 54   KY ~ 48 to 54   TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds:  South and southwest winds 12 to 24 mph with higher gusts likely.  Gusts above 35 mph.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? None
Moonrise will be at 5:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:26 a.m. Full moon


February 11, 2017
Forecast Details
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Very mild.  A 30% for light drizzle and spotty showers.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
Is severe weather expected
? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%  IL ~ 30%   KY ~ 30%   TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation
: Scattered spotty showers
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would not cancel plans.  Have a plan B (just in case)
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 66 to 74   IL ~  66 to 74  KY ~ 66 to 74    TN ~ 68 to 74  
: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:46  a.m. and sunset will be at 5:31 p.m.
UV Index
: 1 to 2
Moonrise will be at 6:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:08 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
: Cloudy.  Some light showers possible. Well above normal temperatures.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 40%  IL ~ 40%    KY ~ 40%   TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, I would not cancel, but have a plan B.  Spotty light showers are a possibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
:  MO ~ 56 to 62   IL ~ 56 to 62    KY ~ 56 to 62    TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds:  South and southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind Chill when applicable:  
Will there be a chance for wintry precipitation
? None
Moonrise will be at 6:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:08 a.m. Waning Gibbous

Temperatures may actually fall late in the day on Sunday.  The timing of the cold front will need to be monitored.  High temperatures may occur early in the day.

More information on the UV index.  Click here


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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day


Friday night
Confidence: High

Friday night will deliver mild temperatures and breezy conditions.  A few patches of fog, drizzle, or light will also be possible.  If drizzle develops it would likely be after midnight.   Winds tonight will likely gust above 30 mph.

Well above normal temperatures tonight.  Some places may not reach the 40’s.  Normal low temperatures are around 25 degrees.

Weekend temperature anomalies
Confidence: High

Temperature anomaly maps.  How many degrees above or below normal will temperatures be?

Saturday at 3 am

Saturday at 6 pm

Sunday at 12 am

Saturday and Sunday
Confidence: Medium to high confidence

Spotty light rain showers are possible on Saturday into Sunday.  I would not cancel any plans.  I would have a plan B in mind.  Then, if it rains, you will be prepared.

This is not a big rain event.  Rainfall totals of a trace to perhaps 0.10″ to 0.20″.  Not much.  Some areas may receive no measurable rainfall.  Keep that in mind, as well.

Severe weather is not anticipated.


A few spotty light showers.


A few spotty showers.  Light.  Very light.

Again, a few spotty light showers.
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How much rain is expected over the coming days?
Spotty showers on Saturday and Saturday night.  Perhaps a few on Sunday, as well.  I would not cancel any plans, but I would have a plan B.


High and Low-Temperature Outlook 

Saturday low temperature forecast

Saturday afternoon high temperature forecast

Sunday low temperature forecast

Sunday high temperature forecast

High temperatures on Sunday could occur early in the day.  A cold front arrives late in the day.



No major concerns.


Severe thunderstorm outlook.

Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Friday night through Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 .No major changes.

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

If you have any problems then please send me an email

Interactive Weather Radar Page.  Choose the city nearest your location:  Click this link

National interactive radar:  Click this link.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky.  These are interactive radars.  Local city radars – click here

Regional Radar


Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts



The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.


Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.


I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.



You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions

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