Weather Blog Post
Last Updated: Jul 07, 2019 9:02 PM

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This is a monthly subscription service.  Supporting this helps support everything else.  The cost is $3 a month for one phone, $5 a month for three phones, and $10 a month for seven phones.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

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FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.

Tuesday night - Light frost possible
Wednesday night -
No concerns for frost
Thursday night -
No concerns for frost
Friday night - No concerns for frost
Saturday night - No concerns for frost
Sunday night - No concerns for frost

 

Tuesday Night - Clearing and cold.  Frost possible.  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 34-38 degree range.  Perhaps 38-42 over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No 

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost.  Otherwise, none.

 

Wednesday - Mostly sunny and cool.  Some high clouds during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures:  High temperatures from 62-66 degrees.
Winds:  East and northeast winds at 10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 0% 
Coverage of precipitation?  
None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No  

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? None

 

Wednesday Night - Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a few light showers.  Mainly over the southern half of the region.
Temperatures:  Lows from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Winds northeast at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation
? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No 

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.  Mainly the southern half of the region.

 

Thursday - Some clouds.  Mild.  A chance for a few showers.  Mainly southern counties in the region.
Temperatures:  High temperatures 64-68 degrees
Winds:  Northeast/east winds at 10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation?
Isolated to scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No  

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.

 

Thursday Night - Partly to mostly cloudy.  A chance for showers.  Mainly southern counties in the region.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No 

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways

 

Friday - Partly sunny.  A slight chance for showers over our southern counties.  Warm.
Temperatures:  High temperatures from 65-70 degrees.  If the disturbance moves out faster then temperatures will be warmer on Friday.
Winds:  Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 20% 
Coverage of precipitation?  
Isolated 

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No  

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.  Otherwise, none.

 

Friday Night - Partly to mostly cloudy. A slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No 

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways 

 

Saturday - Partly cloudy.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  High temperatures 66-74 degrees.  If the disturbance lingers longer than anticipated then temperatures might not be as warm on Saturday.  Keep that in mind.
Winds:  South winds at 6-12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 10% 
Coverage of precipitation?
None to isolated

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low to medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No  

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Likely none

 

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy.    
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No 

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? None

 

Sunday - Partly to mostly sunny.  Warmer.  Spring.  A chance for late afternoon showers or thunderstorms towards Poplar Bluff, Missouri.
Temperatures:  High temperatures 72-78 degrees.
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 20% far western counties of southeast Missouri 
Coverage of precipitation?  
None to isoalted.

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No  

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Monitoring precipitation chances for the western parts of southeast Missouri

 

Sunday Night - Partly cloudy.  
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation
? 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  Most likely none.  

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No 

Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.

 

Monday - Partly sunny.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures:  High temperatures 72-76 degrees.
Winds:  Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? 40% 
Coverage of precipitation?  
Isolated to perhaps scattered

My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No  

Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.

 

The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

 

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Don't forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days...

  1.   Light frost possible Tuesday night
  2.   Rain chances this week
  3.   Warmer temperatures as we push through the week
  4.   Next storm system Sunday night into Monday night.

Temperatures on Tuesday night will be chilly.  Expect widespread middle to upper 30s over the region.  Perhaps closer to 40 degrees over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee.  Can't rule out some light frost.

I am expecting a warming trend through the week and into the weekend. We should be in the 70s on Saturday and Sunday.  I was hoping for solid 70s on Friday, but it appears cloud cover might interfere with temperatures.

A weak disturbance is now anticipated to bring clouds back into the area as early as Wednesday night.  And, light shower chances will spread from Arkansas and Tennessee northward into our area by Thursday morning.  Shower chances will linger into at least Friday afternoon.

Rainfall totals will be on the light side.  Expect 0.10"-0.30" from Wednesday night through Friday evening.  And, the northern parts of our region may experience almost no precipitation.  Chances for rain are highest over our southern counties (Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee).

Saturday and Sunday should deliver quite a bit of sunshine.  Assuming we can push this disturbance out of the way.

Another system approaches out region on Sunday night and Monday.  Showers and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase during this time period.

 

I want to let everyone know the following:

NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.

You were only charged once. Even though the "PENDING" charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.

Today it was processed.

If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April's charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.

There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.

I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.

Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.

If you have any concerns then private message me. 

Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.

Beau

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday night:  Monday - can't rule out some thunderstorms.  Mainly on Monday.

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Updated rain chances.  Updated temperatures.
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FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Tuesday night - Frost will be possible on Tuesday night.  Light.
Wednesday night through Sunday night - No concerns

 

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Light frost is possible on Tuesday night.
Light showers possible Wednesday night into Friday.  Thunderstorms are not anticipated.
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rainfallforecast

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

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Light rain chances will be with us from Wednesday night into Friday afternoon.  An upper level disturbance is expected to move over our region during this time period.  Thus, clouds and some light rain will be the end result.  Rainfall totals will be light.

Here is the rainfall outlook through Friday.  Note that northern sections of the area might not experience much in the way of measurable precipitation.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970's.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor's Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma" Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the "hype" that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma" Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com - a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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awaremail

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic "heads up" concerning incoming weather conditions.