Weather Blog Post
Last Updated: Jul 07, 2019 9:01 PM

November 15, 2017

We have an active weather pattern developing.

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Rain is falling over much of the region (as I type this update).  Rain showers and a few thunderstorms will push eastward through the day and end from west to east during the afternoon hours.

Rainfall totals will remain on the light side.  Most areas will receive less than 0.30".

Tonight and Thursday

Conditions dry out tonight and on Thursday.  Some patchy fog is possible tonight.  Fog development will be partially dependent on clearing sky conditions.  If fog does develop then it could be dense in some areas.  Lows tonight will mostly be in the 32 to 36-degree range.

Thursday will be dry and cool.  Highs on Thursday will top out in the upper 40's to lower 50's.

Thursday night

We should remain dry through Thursday night.  There is just a small chance of a shower after 4 a.m.

Friday into Saturday

Friday into Saturday is when the weather turns on us.

Clouds will be on the increase as we move through Friday.  It will be milder with strong and gusty southerly winds.  Winds may top 20 mph.  A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop before the evening hours, but most of the rain will hold off until later on Friday night into the morning hours of Saturday.

A band of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will spread across our region as we move through Friday night.  Some of the storms could produce strong and gusty winds.  Organized severe weather appears unlikely, but I am monitoring that portion of the forecast.

If dew points were a bit higher then our severe weather risk would be higher.  Let's keep an eye on it.

Winds on Friday night into Saturday morning will gust out of the south/southwest at 15 to 30+ mph.  Winds will become west and northwest behind the cold front.

Rainfall totals with the Friday and Saturday system will be in the 0.35 to 0.65".  Locally higher totals are certainly possible if thunderstorms occur.  Keep that in mind.

There remains a debate as to when the rain ends on Saturday morning.  Guidance packages vary on the timing of the cold frontal passage.  This is part of the forecast that has a lower confidence rating.

If we are fortunate then the system will pull away before 10 or 11 a.m.

Rain will end over our western counties first.  That means the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky is where the rain will linger the longest.

Monitor updates if you have plans on Saturday morning.

Here is the dew point map for 12 p.m., on Saturday.  You can see where the front is located.  Lower dew points behind the front.  The NAM model guidance lingers the front through the morning hours.  That would mean rain would continue through Saturday morning to the east of the front.

Saturday night into Monday

Saturday night into Sunday night will be dry.  Lows on Saturday night will dip into the lower to middle 30's.  Highs on Sunday will be chilly and only top out in the 40's.  Lows by Monday morning will likely be in the 20's.

Long range outlook

The long-range outlook features a battle between colder than normal air and warmer than normal air.  Guidance is all over the place with what will happen as we move closer to Thanksgiving into the first week of December.

There are some signals for a significant cold shot of air late next week, but confidence is low.

Long-range video from the BAMwx team.  I have hired them to help with videos.

These videos are a bit more technical.

Illinois centered video



Week one temperature and precipitation outlook

This is for November 15th through the 21st.  The forecast is for cooler than normal conditions.

We will push above normal on Friday into Friday night.  That will be ahead of our next cold front.  We cool down behind that front.

The precipitation forecast is a bit of a mixed bag.  We have wet conditions today and again Friday night/Saturday morning.  We should be dry tonight through Thursday night, Saturday afternoon through Tuesday.

Week two temperature and precipitation outlook

This takes us from November 22nd through November 28th

Colder than normal conditions are favored.

Percent of normal rainfall is anticipated to be around 50%.  Normal rainfall is around one inch.

Week three and four temperature and precipitation outlook

Temperatures are forecast to be below normal.  This part of the forecast will defintely need to be monitored.  There are mixed signals in the guidance.  This does take us into the first week of December.

Week three and four precipitation outlook.  Perhaps near normal to above normal as we push into the last few days of November into the first week of December.