Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 9, 2016: Some rain chances.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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September 8,  2016
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unset will be at 7:11 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 1:04 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:37 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Thursday Night – Mostly cloudy warm and muggy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.  Heavy downpours.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 2-4 mph.  Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 70%.  IL ~ 70%.  KY~ 70% .  TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widespread
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.  Small risk for strong winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingMedium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
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September 9,  2016
Friday:
  Partly sunny. Hot and humid.   A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.  Can’t rule out strong storms.
What impact is expected?   Heat index values above 94 degrees.  Wet roadways and lightning possible.  Downpours in storms.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  86-92 degree range.
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  A few strong storms are possible with gusty winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor radar updates
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.
Moonrise will be at 1:56 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m.  First Quarter
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy.  A chance for showers and locally heavy thunderstorms.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.  I can’t rule out some strong storms.  If training storms occur then very heavy rain could occur over our far northern counties (closer to I64).
Temperatures:  Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY~ 30% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps scattered (more numerous far northern counties)
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for severe weather.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingMedium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.

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September 10,  2016
Saturday:
  Quite a few clouds.   Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Questionable on how much coverage.
What impact is expected?   Wet roadways and lightning possible.  brief downpours.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  80-86 degree range.
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming west winds at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 16 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Isolated to scattered.  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for a couple of strong storms.  Mainly our far eastern counties.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV index will be 2-5.  Low to moderate.
Moonrise will be at 2:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 p.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Decreasing clouds.  Less humid.  Cooler.
What impact is expected?  Rain should be ending.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 52-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 3-6 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Precipitation should be over by Saturday night.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingMedium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.

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September 11,  2016
Sunday:
  Mostly sunny.  Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected?   None.  Small chance for patchy fog.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  72-76 degree range.
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:06 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.
Moonrise will be at 3:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:11 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous

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Sunday Night – Mostly clear.  Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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September 12,  2016
Monday:
  Mostly sunny. 
What impact is expected?   Most likely none.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  78-84 degree range.
Winds:  Northeast and east winds at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.
Moonrise will be at 4:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:05 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Night – Mostly clear.  Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1.  Some on and off rain chances
  2.  Cooler and less humid by Sunday!

A cold front is draped across portions of Missouri and Illinois.  This front will stall out on Thursday night and Friday morning.  It will eventually move back north as a warm front as an upper level disturbance approaches our region from the west.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.  Perhaps the best coverage will be over Missouri and Illinois into Friday afternoon.  Some showers and storms will also occur over the rest of our region.  It is just that the best coverage and higher totals might end up over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

Locally heavy rain is possible.  PWAT values will top 2 inches over the coming days.  That means there is quite a bit of moisture for thunderstorms to work with.  If storms train over the same areas then some spots might pick up more than an inch of rain.

There remains some question above how much precipitation coverage there will be on Thursday night and Friday morning.  Some of the guidance shows very little activity.  I have capped chances, for the time being, at around 50%-60% for Missouri and Illinois and 40%-50% for Kentucky.  Lesser chances in Tennessee.

The cold front will finally move through our region on Saturday.  A broken band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.  It appears that some areas will remain dry on Saturday.  If you have outdoor plans then at least have a plan B.  If it rains you will be prepared.  If it doesn’t then no harm.   I will leave chances at 40%-50% for Saturday.

There could be enough instability on Saturday afternoon for a few strong thunderstorms over Kentucky and Tennessee.  This will need to be monitored.  CAPE values are peaking over both states.  Here is the 1 pm CAPE map.  CAPE is a measure of instability in the atmosphere.  Higher CAPE numbers are normally associated with stronger thunderstorms.

This chart is showing CAPE numbers in the 2000-3000 range.  This will be highly dependent on cloud cover.  More clouds would mean less CAPE.  I will keep an eye on it.

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The cold front will push through the entire region by Saturday afternoon and evening.  Rain chances end behind the front.

Here is the NAM 700 mb relative humidity fields for 7 am on Saturday.  Can you find the cold front?   Click images to enlarge.

Green and blue represents high relative humidity levels.  Brown and tan represents drier air.  The front, at 7 am on Saturday, will still be to our west.

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Here is the 1 pm Saturday image (below).  Notice the drier air moving eastward.  Cold front is advancing east.

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7 pm Saturday.  Front has moved through the region.  Drier air pushing into most of the area.

7pmsaturday

 

Saturday night will be cool and dry.  Sunday will be nice!  Highs only in the 70’s on Sunday with low humidity levels.

We will warm up a little bit on Monday and Tuesday.  Nothing extreme.  A weak cold front approaches the region on Wednesday and perhaps a stronger front towards the end of next week.

I hope you have a nice weekend.
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?

Rainfall totals will vary greatly over the coming days.  Locally heavy thunderstorms could quickly drop 1″-2″ of rain.  Keep that in mind.  Here is a broad-brush rainfall outlook from NOAA.
You can see the heavier totals to our north.
Most of this falls on Thursday night and Friday.  Precipitation along the front on Saturday will be broken.  Thus, rainfall totals will vary.  Some areas might end up with very little rain on Saturday.
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Here is what the NAM model guidance is showing for rainfall totals (Thursday through Saturday).  Click to enlarge
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Here is what the GFS model is showing.  Some differences in the two.  Both show the heaviest totals north vs south.  Click to enlarge
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Friday morning low temperature map
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Friday afternoon high temperature map
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Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon high temperature
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Sunday morning lows
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Sunday afternoon highs
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Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Thursday night:  A few storms possible.  Locally heavy rain is the main concern.
Friday:  Some storms are possible on Friday.  A strong storm can’t be ruled out over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Low severe risk, overall.
Friday night:  Small chance for thunderstorms.
Saturday:  A few storms are possible.  Severe weather risk is small.  Perhaps some gusty winds.
Saturday night into Monday:  No severe weather anticipated.
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Updated rain probabilities for Friday and Saturday.
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Main concern for outdoor events will be lightning.  A few storms possible as we move into Thursday and Thursday night.  More storms possible Friday (small chance).  Good chance for storms on Saturday as a cold front moves through the area.  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  A few locally strong storms can’t be ruled out from Thursday into Saturday afternoon.

Some locally heavy rain is possible.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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