Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 8, 2016: Increasing storm chances

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab.
Click here.

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Sunset will be at 7:12 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 12:10 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:56 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy.  An isolated thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.  Perhaps lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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Thursday Graphic-cast

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Thursday night

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September 8,  2016
Thursday:
  Partly sunny. Hot and humid.   A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Increasing chances from the north and west.  Better chances as we move into the afternoon hours.
What impact is expected?   Heat index values above 96 degrees.  Wet roadways and lightning possible.  Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  86-92 degree range.
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  Gusty near storms.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered.
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:11 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.
Moonrise will be at 1:04 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:37 p.m.  Waxing Crescent
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There remains some question about how far south to push the heavy rain potential on Thursday night. 

Thursday Night – Mostly cloudy warm and muggy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.  Heavy downpours.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 70-75 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 2-4 mph.  Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY~ 40% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingMedium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

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September 9,  2016

Friday:  Partly sunny. Hot and humid.   A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected?   Heat index values above 94 degrees.  Wet roadways and lightning possible.  Downpours in storms.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  86-92 degree range.
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but I would monitor radar updates
Sunrise will be at 6:32 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:09 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.
Moonrise will be at 1:56 p.m. and moonset will be at –:– p.m.  First Quarter
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy warm and muggy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY~ 30% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingMedium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.

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September 10,  2016

Saturday:  Quite a few clouds.   Scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Questionable on how much coverage.
What impact is expected?   Wet roadways and lightning possible.  brief downpours.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  80-86 degree range.
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming west winds at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 16 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered.  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  Small risk for a couple of strong storms.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:33 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:08 p.m.
UV index will be 2-5.  Low to moderate.
Moonrise will be at 2:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:21 p.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Decreasing clouds.  Less humid.  Cooler.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning will be possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 56-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 3-6 mph.  Gusts to 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY~ 20% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Precipitation should be over by Saturday night.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingMedium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.

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September 11,  2016

Sunday:  Mostly sunny.  Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected?   Most likely none.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  72-76 degree range.
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:34 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:06 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.
Moonrise will be at 3:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:11 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear.  Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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September 12,  2016

Monday:  Mostly sunny. 
What impact is expected?   Most likely none.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  78-84 degree range.
Winds:  Northeast and east winds at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.  High.
Moonrise will be at 4:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:05 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Night – Mostly clear.  Cooler and less humid.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1.  Increasing thunderstorm chances
  2.  Cold front arrives on Saturday
  3.  Questions on precipitation coverage for Saturday
  4.  Cooler and drier air for Saturday night into Monday
  5.  Another cold front next week.  More cool air.
 We will have increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as we push into Thursday afternoon and night.  They will move in from the west and north. Some of the rain could be locally heavy.  There remains a few questions about how far south the rain area will push on Thursday afternoon and night.
Rainfall totals will vary.  Heavy storms could quickly drop more than an inch of rain.  Gusty winds and lightning with storms, as well.
Thunderstorm chances will continue into Friday.  The rain should be moving back northward on Friday.
Here is what the WRF future-cast radar looks like for the Thursday into Friday rain event.  Images are from weatherbell.com and you can click the image to enlarge it.
This first map is for Thursday around 4 pm.  You can see showers and storms already in our local area.
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This next map is for Thursday evening around 7 pm.
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This next map is for 10 pm on Thursday night.
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This next map is for Friday morning around 1 am
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This next map is for Friday morning around 4 am
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This next map is for 7 am on Friday morning
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This next map is for 1 pm on Friday afternoon
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One concern I have for locally heavy rain is that the PWAT values will be very high.  PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  This can result in heavy rain.
What are PWAT values?  Great question!  I found this blog post that explains it quite well.  Click here for more information on PWAT values.
This first map is for 4 pm on Thursday.  Those are high PWAT values in purple and then the bright white colors.
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Thursday at 7 pm
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Thursday night at 10 pm
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Friday morning at 7 am
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A cold front arrives on Saturday.  This front will push in from the northwest.  Showers and storms will accompany the front.  If you have outdoor events on Saturday then have a plan B.  There will be a good chance for showers and storms in the region.  A few storms could produce brief downpours.  The risk for severe weather appears minimal.
Some of the guidance is showing less coverage of precipitation on Saturday.  It is possible that it will be a broken band of showers and thunderstorms.  I can’t promise you rain at your location with the cold front.  I am certain there will be precipitation associated with the front.  Confidence, however, is lower as to the amount of coverage.  Keep that in mind.  Thus, have a plan B for outdoor events.
Cooler and drier air arrives on Saturday night and Sunday.  The air-mass will feel nice again when you step outside!
We will warm up a little bit on Monday and Tuesday.  Another cold front is possible towards the middle of next week.  Yet another front possible next weekend.  This will bring a stronger shot of even cooler air.  Perhaps our extended periods of heat will soon be over.
Here are the 1 pm temperatures for Sunday and Monday.  Nicer!  Lower dew points, as well.  The air will feel nice.
sfct-wxt_ov-6
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Let’s look at a couple of model guidance packages for rainfall totals.  There is quite a bit of question on how much rain falls on Thursday and Thursday night.  Some of the guidance is showing 1″-2″+ over the area.  Let’s keep an eye on how far south the boundary shifts.  This will be one of the deciding factors in rain totals.
This first map is the WRF model guidance.  This is just through Friday evening.  This captures the rain totals on Thursday and Friday.  As you can see, some heavy rain is possible.
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Let’s look at this next map from the GFS guidance.  This is through the weekend.  Pockets of two or more inches showing up on the GFS, as well.
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?

 

Rainfall totals could vary greatly over the coming days.  Locally heavy thunderstorms could quickly drop 1″-2″ of rain.  Keep that in mind.  Here is a broad-brush rainfall outlook from NOAA.
You can see the heavier totals to our north.  I suspect we see some locally heavy totals in our region, as well.  Most of this falls Thursday and Thursday night and then again on Saturday.
I would not be surprised if several spots end up with more than two inches of rain on Thursday into Friday morning.
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Thursday morning low temperature map

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Thursday afternoon high temperature map

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Friday morning low temperatures

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Frid
ay afternoon high temperature

 

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Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Wednesday night:  Isolated storm possible.
Thursday and Thursday night:  Increasing chances for thunderstorms from the north.  Heavy rain is possible.  Isolated flash flood risk.
Friday through Sunday:  Some storms are likely on Friday.  Locally heavy rain and strong storms possible.  A new cold front moves into the region.  Organized storms are possible along the front.  Timing of the front is still a bit questionable.  Perhaps the best rain chances will arrive on Saturday.  Monitor updates.
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No major shifts in the forecast.
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Main concern for outdoor events will be lightning.  A few storms possible as we move into Thursday and Thursday night.  More storms possible Friday (small chance).  Good chance for storms on Saturday as a cold front moves through the area.  Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.  A few locally strong storms can’t be ruled out from Thursday into Saturday afternoon.

Rainfall could be heavy on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.  Some spots could top two inches of rain.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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