Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 6th and 7th: Cool weather.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 6, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cooler.  Pleasant early September night.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures   (locally colder temperatures possible) MO ~  44 to 48   IL ~ 44 to 48     KY ~ 45 to 50     TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 7, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant with low humidity levels.
Temperatures:   MO ~  74 to 77    IL ~ 74 to 77     KY ~  74 to 78     TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: North and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cool.  Pleasant night.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures   MO ~ 48 to 54      IL ~ 46 to 54      KY ~ 46 to 54     TN ~ 46 to 54
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None (patchy morning fog)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 8, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Pleasant temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 76 to 82     IL ~ 76 to 82     KY ~ 76 to 82       TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds:  Light southwest winds <10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cool.  Perhaps some patchy fog.  A few passing clouds possible.
Temperatures   MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Light and variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 9, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 82     IL ~ 78 to 82     KY ~ 78 to 82       TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds:  Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures   MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Light and variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 10, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Pleasant temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 82     IL ~ 78 to 82     KY ~ 78 to 82       TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds:  Light and variable winds becoming northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures   MO ~ 54 to 58      IL ~ 54 to 58      KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Light and variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 11, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Pleasant temperatures.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 82     IL ~ 78 to 82     KY ~ 78 to 82       TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds:  Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures   MO ~ 55 to 60      IL ~ 55 to 60      KY ~ 55 to 60     TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: Light and variable at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

 

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.  That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm

Wednesday night through Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

beausanalysis

Overview

Are there any weather concerns?

  1. Cool weather to continue.  Pleasant for early September.
  2. Tracking Hurricane Irma in the long range

Short range

Confidence level in the short range forecast is high

Calm weather for our region.  Below normal temperatures and below normal dew points.  Nice for early September.

Yes, some of us still need rain, but at least it is not oppressively hot and humid.

The overall outlook for the upcoming six to ten days is for more of the same.   Below normal temperatures.  Below normal precipitation.

The wild card in the forecast continues to be the eventual track of Hurricane Irma.  Odds favor it staying out of our region, but some data does bring it towards the Ohio Valley.   If that were to occur then some rain and gusty winds would occur.

Odds favor it missing our area.  I will be monitoring the trends over the coming days.

Let’s take a look at some maps

Click images to enlarge

You can think the trough in the east for our cooler temperatures.  A trough is a dip in the jet stream.  Dipping into our region from the north.  That delivers cooler weather, of course.  Source of this air is Canada.

Here is the jet stream graphic from Wednesday afternoon

See the red?  Those are wind speeds.  Scale is at the bottom.  It is diving in from the north.  It then makes the turn and shifts back northeast.  Trough.

Trough vs ridge

 

Temperatures today were below normal.  A few locations dipped into the lower to middle 40’s on Tuesday night.

Here is the Wednesday temperature anomaly map.  Well below normal.

Normal high temperatures, for this time of the year, are around 85 degrees.  Normal low temperatures are around 60 degrees.

 

TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Low temperatures for Wednesday night

High temperatures for Thursday (below)

Low temperatures for Thursday night (below)

High temperatures for Friday (below)

Dew point scale

 

Dew points for Thursday

Dew points for Friday

Dew points for Saturday

Long range

The confidence level is high for the long range forecast.

Calm weather is anticipated into the weekend.  I am not forecasting any showers or thunderstorms, at this time.

Looking ahead

Here are the latest official six to ten and eight to fourteen-day temperature and precipitation outlooks.  Note the dates at the top of each graphic.

Monday, September 11th through Friday, September 15th

Probabilities favor below normal readings

Monday, September 11th through Friday, September 15th

Probabilities favor below normal

Here is the eight to fourteen-day outlook

September 15th through September 19th

Temperature probabilities favor below normal readings

Precipitation outlook for the same time period

HURRICANE IRMA

I am closely monitoring Hurricane Irma.

Here is the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center

If you have friends or family in the forecast track cone, then I would encourage you to tell them to listen to local emergency officials.  This is a dangerous hurricane with the potential of great destruction.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.  I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com

WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.

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