Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 30, 2016 Clouds and cool temperatures.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

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New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Thursday Night –   Some clouds.  Cool.  A few showers possible.  The best chance for showers will be over southern Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Lesser chances as you move westward.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways.  Small risk for lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 6-12 mph.  Gusts to 20 mph.  Winds should taper late tonight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunset will be at 6:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:11 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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September 30,  2016
Friday:
 Mostly cloudy.  Periods of spotty sunshine.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  The best chance for showers will be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Lesser rain chances as you move westward.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways possible.  Small hail possible if a few storms form.  Cold air funnels possible.  A few lightning strikes are also possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  66-76 degree range.  Temperatures will vary based on sunshine.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Some rain will occur.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:37 p.m.
UV index will be 0-4. Low, because of cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:43 p.m.  New Moon.
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Friday Night –   Mostly cloudy.   A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Best chances for showers would be east of the Mississippi River.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. 
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radar.

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October 1, 2016
Saturday:
  Mostly cloudy during the morning.  We may experience some clearing late in the day.  Showers are possible. 
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways possible.  Small hail possible if a few storms form.  Cold air funnels possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  68-75 degree range.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:36 p.m.
UV index will be 0-5. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 7:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night –   Some clouds.  Perhaps clearing late.  Cool.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated, if any.  Precipitation should be ending on Saturday night.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Some showers will be possible.

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October 2, 2016
Sunday:
  Partly cloudy.  Hopefully the upper level low will have moved off to the east and northeast by Sunday.  This will need to be monitored.  If it pulls far enough away then we will have mostly sunny sky conditions.  Nice day.  Pick day of the weekend.
What impact is expected?  None.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  74-78 degree range.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:34 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 8:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:46 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night –   Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 3, 2016
Monday:
  Mostly sunny.  Nice day.
What impact is expected?  None.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  74-78 degree range.
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:33 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 9:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:19 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Monday Night –   Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 4, 2016
Tuesday:
  Mostly sunny.  Nice day. Warmer.
What impact is expected?  None.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  76-82 degree range.
Winds:  Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:31 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 10:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:54 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Tuesday Night –   Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 5, 2016
Wednesday:
  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  80-85 degree range.
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:30 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 10:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:33 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Wednesday Night –   Some clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1.  Fall like weather
  2.  Clouds and some showers
  3.  Pick day of the weekend will be Sunday

The main weather story continues to be the area of low pressure and upper level low over Indiana and Kentucky.  This system is meandering around the Ohio Valley.  It will move north and west on Friday and then move east and northeast on Saturday.

Here is a satellite view of the large upper level low.  Impressive, isn’t it?

Click images to enlarge

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The system should exit our region by Saturday night.  Clouds may linger into Saturday afternoon or night.

Here is the WRF model guidance.  This is a high resolution model.  You can see the red L representing the area of low pressure (unsettled weather)

This first image is for Friday morning around 3 am.  The green colors represent precipitation.

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This next image is for Friday morning at 10 am.  You can see nothing is moving.  This upper level low will continue to spin over our region.

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This next image is for Friday afternoon around 6 pm.  The low is slowly shifting north and west.  An odd movement, but that is what happens with a cut-off low.  It is cut off from the jetstream.  It meanders until a kicker comes along.

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This next image is for Saturday at 1 pm.  The WRF keeps the system to our north of Saturday.  There is some disagreement on exactly what time this system will exit our region.  Keep that in mind.

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This next image is for Saturday at 7 pm.  The low is pulling away.  The GFS kicks it out a bit faster on Saturday.  WRF is a little slower and bit further west.  Again, confidence on Saturday’s forecast is fairly low.

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Here is the WRF rainfall totals.  The model spits out anywhere from 0.00″ to 0.50″ of rain in our region.  Rain coverage would be highest over parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  It might be a bit overdone on totals and coverage.  You get the general idea.

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The best chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Chances in those areas will range from 30%-50%.  Not everyone will receive measurable rainfall.  Rainfall totals should range from 0.00″ to perhaps as high as 0.50″.  The higher totals might be the exception.

Some small hail and cold air funnels will also be possible.  For more information on cold air funnels click this link – click here

Spotty showers will continue into Saturday morning.  I am hoping the system will pull away by Saturday afternoon and night.  Clearing sky conditions are possible late on Saturday or more likely Saturday night.

Expect temperatures to vary considerably.  The cloud cover will keep some areas in the 60’s for daytime highs.  Where the sun prevails then you can expect lower 70’s.

Overnight lows will mostly remain in the 50’s.  Fall has arrived.

We may warm up a little bit early next week.  A chance for showers and storms may return to the forecast by Wednesday night into Friday.  Timing of that system will need to be monitored.

I continue to monitor Tropical Storm Matthew.  Matthew might strengthen to hurricane strength over the next 24-48 hours.  There is NO concern for this system to impact the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, or the East Coast through at least Monday.  The system may approach portions of the United States by Tuesday and Wednesday.  Confidence on the eventual track is extremely low.  There are too many variables involved in a tropical system to attempt guessing at its path five or six days away.

If you have travel plans to the ocean this weekend then I do not see any tropical concerns (for the United States) through early next week.

Here are a couple of models.  On Tuesday morning this model has the system over Cuba.  Both models are moving the system northward.

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Here is another model for Tuesday morning at 7 am.  You can see the system is moving north of Cuba.

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WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here


How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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Some showers will be possible over the coming days.

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast.  You can see the sharp cutoff of the precipitation from west to east.  Best chances for measurable rain will be over the eastern half of our region.

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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Friday 
afternoon 1 pm temperatures.

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Saturday morning low temperatures.
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Saturday afternoon temperatures at 1 pm.
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Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Thursday night through Sunday:  A few thunderstorms are possible into Friday night and Saturday morning.  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Small hail can’t be ruled out.  Cold air funnels, as well.  Cold air funnels rarely touch down or cause damage.

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Adjusted rain chances for the weekend.  Updated the temperature and winds.

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No major concerns.  

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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