Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 3, 2018: Non-subscribers blog update. Warm weather.

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September 3, 2018
Labor Day
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 94     IL ~ 86 to 94       KY ~ 86 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Wind: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  An isolated wet roadway and lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10  Medium to high
Sunrise:  6:26 AM

 

Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Mostly clear.  Warm.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Wind: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:21 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM  Last Quarter
Moonset: 2:24 PM

 

September 4, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Warm.  Humid.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 88 to 92     IL ~ 88 to 93       KY ~ 88 to 94      TN ~ 88 to 94
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways and lightning (if anything at all)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
UV Index: 8 to 10  High
Sunrise:  6:28 AM

 

Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear.  Warm.  A few passing clouds.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%     IL ~ 10%       KY ~ 10%      TN ~  10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.  Isolated if anything at all.
Wind:  South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

September 5, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  A few thunderstorms possible.  Greatest chance will be across southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.  Lesser chances as you move north and northeast.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 86 to 92     IL ~ 85 to 90       KY ~ 86 to 92      TN ~ 86 to 92
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Widely scattered
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None to isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8 to 10   High
Sunrise:  6:29 AM

 

Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72       KY ~ 66 to 72      TN ~ 66 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated to widely scattered
Wind: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated to widely scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars
Sunset:  7:18 PM
Moonrise: 1:38 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  4:27 PM

 

The forecast from Thursday into the weekend will be highly dependent on the track of tropical storm Gordon

 

September 6, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy.  A few showers or thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 85 to 88     IL ~ 85 to 88       KY ~ 85 to 90      TN ~ 85 to 90-
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
UV Index: 6 to 7  Moderate to high (we will have to monitor cloud cover)
Sunrise:  6:30 AM

 

Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  Warm.  Humid.  A few showers or thunderstorms again possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 20%       KY ~ 20%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Wind:  Southeast at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  A few wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars
Sunset:  7:16 PM
Moonrise: 2:42 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  5:21 PM

 

September 7, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  Southeast at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 6 to 7  Moderate to high (we will have to monitor cloud cover)
Sunrise:  6:31 AM

 

Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:   Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  East and southeast becoming south at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset:  7:15 AM
Moonrise: 3:50 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  6:11 PM

 

September 8, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  South and southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
UV Index: 6 to 7  Moderate to high (depending on cloud cover)
Sunrise:  6:32 AM

 

Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Moonrise: 5:02 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  6:54 PM

 

September 9, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ MO ~ 84 to 88     IL ~ 84 to 88       KY ~ 84 to 88      TN ~ 85 to 88
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
UV Index: 6 to 7  Moderate to high (depends on clouds)
Sunrise:  6:32 AM

 

Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 74      IL ~ 70 to 74       KY ~ 70 to 74      TN ~ 70 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%     IL ~ 30%       KY ~ 30%      TN ~  30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Wind:  Southwest at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?   Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunset:  7:12 PM
Moonrise: 6:14 AM  Waning Crescent
Moonset:  7:32 PM

 

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

 

 

Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook.

Keep in mind, this graphic won’t capture those locally heavy thunderstorms that we often have during the summer months.  Those storms can easily drop an inch or more of rain in less than an hour.

 

Here is the seven-day rainfall forecast.  This takes us into next Monday morning

Remember, this is never exact.  Take the general idea of how much rain could fall.  Some will receive more and some less, as always is the case in our region.

Many areas will likely end up with no measurable rainfall.

National view.  You can see where the tropical system tracks.  If the track of the tropical system shifts then this would need updating.

 

Click to enlarge

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Here is the zoomed version of the above centered on southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

Notice the sharp gradient.  This graphic takes us from now through 7 AM next Monday

Click to enlarge the graphic

 

 

Zooming in on Kentucky and Tennessee.

This is through 7 AM next Monday

 

 

 

 

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.

If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5 on your keyboard.

You may also try restarting your browser.  The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

 

Questions? Broken links? Other questions?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

 

Today through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  I will be monitoring each afternoon for a few thunderstorms.  There is a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.  If thunderstorms form then they would produce heavy rain.

At this time, the severe weather risk appears limited.

The track of Tropical Storm Gordon will be important.  If the track shifts then our rain chances increase.  Monitor updates.

 

Summer thunderstorms can produce isolated microbursts.

microburst winds can exceed 50 mph.

What are microbursts?

 

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

  1. Happy Labor Day
  2. Isolated thunderstorm chances through Tuesday night.  Most areas will remain dry.
  3. Warm and humid weather.
  4. Tropical Storm Gordon
  5. Rain chances may increase towards the middle/end of the week.

 

The long range graphics and videos will be updated Tuesday

 

 

Happy Labor Day, everyone.  I hope you are having an enjoyable weekend.

Let’s take a look back at August temperature anomalies.  How many degrees above or below normal were temperatures?

A mixed bag.

 

 

It has been warm over the last few days.  Daily temperatures have risen into the upper 80’s to lower 90’s.  Dew points have been high, as well.  That has led to heat index values of 95 to 100 degrees.  Not all that comfortable in the dew point/humidity department.

Most areas have been dry over the past few days.  There were a couple of small thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.  Nothing of significance.

Today into Tuesday will deliver the same.  Warm and humid.  An isolated or stray thunderstorm possible, mainly during the heat of the day.

Our weather is currently being controlled by a ridge of high pressure.  A ridge of high pressure, during the summer months, usually means hot and dry weather.  The ridge has been with us for much of the summer.  It occasionally weakens and that is when we end up with showers and thunderstorms.

The ridge is forecast to weaken later this week.  As it weakens, we can expect some increase in precipitation.  Many of us need rain.  Not everyone, but many.

A tropical storm has formed off the Florida coast.  This system is moving northwest and will enter the Gulf of Mexico over the coming 24 to 48 hours.

The system’s name is Gordon.

Gordon is forecast to track northwest into Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

Here is the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

You can see how it tracks to our west and northwest.  It may, however, be close enough to bring clouds and an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity Wednesday into the weekend.

It is unlikely that the system will track over our region.  These systems typically increase PWAT values (moisture in the atmosphere).  When that happens we have an increasing chance of locally heavy downpours.

I will be monitoring the track of the system.

 

The SPC WRF model takes the system a bit further east.

This is the future-cast radar Tuesday afternoon.  You can see the system off the coast of Louisiana to Mississippi/Florda.  It is moving northwest.

 

 

7 AM Wednesday.  This model takes it into Mississippi.  Again, this is further north and northeast of the cone of uncertainty.

I will monitor trends in guidance.

 

 

 

Spotter classes

 

 

Here is the preliminary fall outlook from the long range meteorology team.

Click to enlarge this graphic.

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The September forecast has been updated. 
This product is for subscribers.
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE
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These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers.  I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but may add one in the future.

The long-range video is technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video. Just keep in mind, it is a bit more technical.

 

NOTE: THESE ARE USUALLY NOT UPDATED ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

This product is for subscribers.
 
Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com
Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

 

I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters.

Remember, long-range outlooks are a bit of skill, understanding weather patterns, and luck combined. It is not an exact science.

 

 

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE


This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

This product is for subscribers.

 

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

 

 Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

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First glance at fall!

 

These products are for subscribers.
 
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Subscriber graphics can be viewed on this page  CLICK HERE

 

Preliminary October temperature outlook

Preliminary October precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary November temperature and precipitation outlook

Preliminary November  temperature outlook

Preliminary November precipitation outlook

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

 

 

WeatherBrains Episode 657

St Louis, Missouri, National Weather Association

This episode of WeatherBrains is coming directly from the NWA annual meeting in St. Louis, MO. Lots of discussion on various topics from the NWA conference. Joining us tonight from the meeting are Dr. John Scala, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Scott Martin, James Spann, Greg Stumpf, Alis Smith, Kevin Laws (BHM), Fred Glass, Dr. Pam Heinselman (NSSL), and Dr. Chuck Graves (St. Louis University).

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 114 at Death Valley, CA, and 29 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Severe thunderstorm watches tonight North Central US
  • MCS from MN into WI Monday night
  • Severe weather stays north from Great Lakes to New England next 2 days
  • One year anniversary of Hurricane Harvey
  • 25th anniversary of 1993 Flood in St. Louis area
  • and more!

 

Link to web-site  https://weatherbrains.com/

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

 

 

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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