Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 29th and 30th: Warmer air on the way.

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few passing clouds.  Gusty winds developing.  Mostly clear.  Cooler.
Temperatures   MO ~ 48 to 54     IL ~ 48 to 54       KY ~ 48 to 54     TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North and northeast at 8 to 16 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Some gusty winds overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 30, 2017
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cooler.  Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 70 to 76      IL ~70 to 76      KY ~ 72 to 78       TN ~ 72 to 78
Winds: East and northeast at 8 to 16 mph and gusty, at times
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  Cool.
Temperatures   MO ~ 48 to 54     IL ~ 48 to 54       KY ~ 48 to 54     TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: East and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 1, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 74 to 78      IL ~74 to 78      KY ~ 74 to 78       TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Easterly at 7 to 14 mph.  Winds may become more south/southeast through the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few passing clouds.  Gusty winds developing.
Temperatures   MO ~ 54 to 58     IL ~ 54 to 58     KY ~ 54 to 58     TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph.  Winds may become gusty Sunday night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 2, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 76 to 82      IL ~76 to 82      KY ~ 76 to 82       TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts  to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few passing clouds, otherwise clear.  Not as cool.
Temperatures   MO ~ 58 to 64     IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64     TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South and southeast winds at 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty winds possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 3, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 84     IL ~78 to 84      KY ~ 78 to 84      TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few passing clouds, otherwise clear.  Not as cool.
Temperatures   MO ~ 62 to 66     IL ~ 62 to 66     KY ~ 62 to 66     TN ~62 to 66
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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October 4, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  A few clouds.  warm.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 82 to 86     IL ~82 to 86      KY ~ 82 to 86      TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.  A few clouds.
Temperatures   MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68     KY ~ 64 to 68     TN ~64 to 68
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

There are signals for a stronger cold front Friday or Saturday.  IF that happens, then you can knock temps down a bit.  If not, then we may have to deal with extended heat.  I am leaning 80’s for late next week.  Some guidance is showing 90’s.  I will monitor trends.
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Friday night through next Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

beausanalysis

Overview

Highlights of the forecast.

  1. Nice weather this weekend
  2. Dry weather through next Thursday (maybe longer)

Short range comments

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(See the long range discussion further down in this post)

Nice weather for the weekend.   Highs mostly in the 70’s and overnight lows mostly in the 50’s.  Autumn air.  Low humidity/dew points, as well.

I am not anticipating any rain through at least next Thursday.  The drought will worsen (for some).

Temperature Forecast

Friday night low temperatures

Saturday high temperatures

Saturday night low temperatures

Sunday high temperatures

Sunday night low temperature

Monday high temperatures

Monday night low temperatures

Dew point scale

Dew points are what control how you feel outside.

 

Saturday dew points

Sunday dew points

Monday dew points

Tuesday dew points

Long range forecast discussion

This discussion covers next week.

The main weather story Monday through next Saturday will be a warming trend.  Guidance indicates above normal temperatures will likely be with us through the entire week.  There is one caveat.  See further down.

The real question is how warm will it be.  I have been saying middle to upper 80’s will return.  Some guidance is showing 90’s.  For now, I will stick with the 80’s.  Either way, it will be warmer than normal.

I am not tracking any significant rain events through next Friday.  The drought, for portions of the region, will worsen.

Some of the guidance wants to push a cold front into the area late next week.  I am not completely ruling that out.  I will stick with the lower end numbers for highs.  That will mean 80’s.  If the front develops, then we might talk 70’s for highs.  I will monitor trends.

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.

In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

2015-01-15_12-22-08

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There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
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