Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 29, 2016: Upper level low pressure.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

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New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab.
Click here.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

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Wednesday Night:  A few clouds.  Cool.  Showers ending.  Windy before midnight.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 15-25 mph before midnight and then 5-10 after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 6:40 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 4:29 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:39 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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September 29,  2016
Thursday:
  Some clouds.  A shower possible.  The best chance for showers will be over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways possible.  Small risk for lightning.  Perhaps pea to dime size hail.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  68-74 degree range.
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 6-12 mph.  Perhaps gusty winds (depending on where the upper level low moves).

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected?  No, but cold air funnels and small hail would be possible with showers or storms that might form.  This would mainly be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:39 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:11 p.m.  Waning Crescent
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Thursday Night –   Some clouds.  Cool.  A few showers possible.  The best chance for showers will be over southern Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.  Lesser chances as you move westward.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways.  Small risk for lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 50-55 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunset will be at 6:39 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:11 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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September 30,  2016
Friday:
 Mostly cloudy.  Periods of spotty sunshine.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.  The best chance for showers will be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  Lesser rain chances as you move westward.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways possible.  Small hail possible if a few storms form.  Cold air funnels possible.  A few lightning strikes are also possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  66-76 degree range.  Temperatures will vary based on sunshine.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Some rain will occur.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:37 p.m.
UV index will be 0-4. Low, because of cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:43 p.m.  New Moon.
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Friday Night –   Mostly cloudy.   A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Best chances for showers would be east of the Mississippi River.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. 
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radar.

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October 1, 2016
Saturday:
  Mostly cloudy during the morning.  We may experience some clearing late in the day.  Showers are possible. 
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways possible.  Small hail possible if a few storms form.  Cold air funnels possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  68-75 degree range.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:36 p.m.
UV index will be 0-5. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 7:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night –   Some clouds.  Perhaps clearing late.  Cool.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  Isolated, if any.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.  Some showers will be possible.

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October 2, 2016
Sunday:
  Partly cloudy.  Hopefully the upper level low will have moved off to the east and northeast by Sunday.  This will need to be monitored.  If it pulls far enough away then we will have mostly sunny sky conditions.  Nice day.  Pick day of the weekend.
What impact is expected?  None.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  74-78 degree range.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:34 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 8:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:46 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night –   Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 3, 2016
Monday:
  Mostly sunny.  Nice day.
What impact is expected?  None.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  74-78 degree range.
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:33 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 9:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:19 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Monday Night –   Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 4, 2016
Tuesday:
  Mostly sunny.  Nice day. Warmer.
What impact is expected?  None.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  76-82 degree range.
Winds:  Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:31 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 10:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:54 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Tuesday Night –   Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 56-62 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1.  Upper level low pressure
  2.  Clouds and some showers possible
  3.  Cool weather to continue into early next week

Check out the visible satellite view on Wednesday afternoon.  Parts of the area have sunshine.  Others are socked in with clouds.  That will be the story over the coming days.

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Here is the 700 mb wind field map.  Can you find the area of low pressure?  It is rotating counterclockwise.

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The main weather concern over the coming days will be a large upper level low centered over the Ohio Valley.  This upper level low will be responsible for clouds in our region.  Occasional showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm will also be possible.  The upper level low will likely meander over our area until Saturday morning or afternoon.  Towards Saturday afternoon and evening the system should start to push off the northeast.  That will bring an end to the clouds and precipitation.

It probably won’t rain everywhere in our region.  The best chances will be east of the Mississippi River.  Thursday into Saturday morning will offer clouds and precipitation chances.

Some small hail is also possible.  Cold air funnels can’t be ruled out.  They normally are a novelty event and rarely touch down.  Not impossible to touch down, but rare.

We should dry out by Saturday night and Sunday.  Sunday might end up the pick day of the weekend with temperatures into the 70’s with sunshine.

There are some signals for stormier weather as we push into October.  Remember, severe weather is not uncommon in our region during the fall months.  Some of our deadliest tornadoes have been recorded in both fall and winter.  There is no real way of forecasting severe weather weeks in advance.  I am just reminding you to be aware of updated weather forecasts during the fall months.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

Temperatures will remain cool through the weekend.  I am not tracking any significant heat for our local area.  Hopefully we are over the hump.

I am monitoring a tropical system that is forecast to develop in the Caribbean over the coming days into next week.  It is way too early to know where this system will track.  If you have travel plans to the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, or the East Coast then monitor updates.

The GFS takes the system east of Florida.  The EC model guidance is slower with the development and keeps it further south.  Again, too soon for predictions.

If you have outdoor plans over the coming days then I would suggest checking radars and updated information.  Sometimes these upper level lows can have a mind of their own.  They are never easy to forecast.

For more information on cold air funnels click this link – click here


How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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Some showers will be possible over the coming days.

Here is the official WPC rainfall forecast map (NOAA).  You can see where they cut the measurable precipitation off.  I think it will be a bit west of where they have placed the cut off.
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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Friday morning lows

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Friday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Wednesday night through Sunday:  A few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out into Saturday.  Showers will mainly be the concern.  Small hail and cold air funnels will be possible.

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No major changes.  Adjusted Thursday and Friday’s high temperature.  Clouds could keep us quite cool.  

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No major concerns.  

 

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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