Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 28, 2016: Unsettled weather developing.

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

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New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab.
Click here.

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Tuesday Night –   Mostly clear.  Cool.  Fallish weather.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset will be at 6:42 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:05 p.m.  Waning Crescent

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Confidence in the Wednesday through Saturday forecast is LOW.  That means adjustments are likely.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

September 28,  2016
Wednesday
:  A mix of sun and clouds.  The most clouds will be east of the Mississippi River.  A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.  Best chances for rain will be over southeast Illinois into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected?  Isolated lightning.  Wet roadways possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  68-76 degree range.
Winds:  West and northwest winds at 6-12 mph becoming northwest and north.  Gusts to 15 mph possible.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.  A few showers will be possible on Wednesday.
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:40 p.m.
UV index will be 3-6. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 4:29 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:39 p.m.  Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Night:  A few clouds.  Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High.  This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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September 29,  2016
Thursday:
 Increasing clouds.  A shower possible.  The best chance for showers will be over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways possible.  Small risk for lightning.  Perhaps pea to dime size hail.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  66-74 degree range.
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph.  Perhaps gusty winds (depending on where the upper level low moves).

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No, but cold air funnels and small hail would be possible with showers or storms that might form.  This would mainly be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:39 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:11 p.m.  Waning Crescent
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Thursday Night –   Some clouds.  Cool.  A shower possible.  The best chance for showers will be over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways.  Small risk for lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.

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September 30,  2016
Friday:
A mix of sun and clouds.  A shower or thunderstorm again possible.  The best chance for showers will be over southeast Illinois and the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways possible.  Small hail possible if a few storms form.  Cold air funnels possible.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  64-72 degree range.
Winds:  Northeast winds at 4-8 mph.  Gusts to 12 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY ~ 40% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:37 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:43 p.m.  New Moon.
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Friday Night –   Partly cloudy.  Perhaps mostly cloudy east of the Mississippi River.  A chance for a shower.  Best chances for showers would be east of the Mississippi River.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 50-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates and radar.

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October 1, 2016
Saturday:
  Partly cloudy.  If the disturbance to our east does as forecast then we should have a dry day.  I can’t rule out some showers remaining.  Again, this will depend on the speed of the low moving out of our region.
What impact is expected?  Most likely none.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  72-76 degree range.
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 20%.  KY ~ 20% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:36 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 7:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night –   A few clouds.  Nice, otherwise.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.  I will be watching a cut off low to our east.  It is forecast to move west.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 2, 2016
Sunday:
  Partly cloudy.  If the disturbance to our east does as forecast then we should have a dry day.
What impact is expected?  None.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  75-80 degree range.
Winds:  North and northwest winds at 4-8 mph.

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:34 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 8:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:46 p.m.  Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night –   Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures:  Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%.  IL ~ 0%.  KY ~ 0% .  TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1.  Changes to the forecast
  2.  Upper level low
  3.  Low confidence in the eventual track and outcome of the forecast

I have been struggling with the placement of the upper level low on Wednesday through Friday.  It now appears a few showers and storms will be possible on Wednesday morning and early afternoon over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.  The further east you travel the better the chance for a shower or storm.  This won’t be an all day rain.  Passing showers and perhaps a clap of thunder.  The freezing level is low.  Small hail can’t be ruled out.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

A large upper level low will be situated over our region on Thursday into Saturday.  I placed rain chances in the forecast earlier this week for Thursday and Friday.  I have continued those chances in this update.  No changes there.

The upper level low will push south and west on Thursday and Friday.  A bit odd, but not all that unusual for this time of the year.  These upper level lows can meander.  The reason they meander is because they are cut off from the main jet stream.  Thus, they don’t have much in the way of steering mechanisms.

The upper level low will keep temperatures quite cool for this time of the year.  It will also mean the possibility of a lot of clouds.  A few showers will be possible as the low sits and spins in our region.  Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s on Wednesday into Friday.  Cloud cover will shave several degrees off of high temperatures.  Fall air.

Rain chances will probably, for now at least, be capped at around 40%.  That may need to be adjusted.

The best chance for rain will be east of the Mississippi River.  Areas to the west may remain dry.  If the low shifts further west then adjustments to the forecast would be necessary for southeast Missouri, as well.  For now I placed southeast Missouri in very small rain shower chances (see the forecast at the top of the page).

The system will still be in our region on Saturday.  It will slowly move off to the northeast on Saturday afternoon and evening.  This will bring an end to the clouds and rain showers.

If you have outdoor plans over the coming days then I would suggest checking radars and updated information.  Sometimes these upper level lows can have a mind of their own.  They are never easy to forecast.

One side note, cold air funnels will be possible with this system.  For more information on cold air funnels click this link – click here

 

Cold air funnels rarely touch down.  Not saying they can’t touch down.  There have been cases of light damage from cold air funnels.  Keep that in mind.


How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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Adjustments to the forecast have been posted.  I can’t rule out some showers and storms on Wednesday.  This would mainly be over southeast Illinois and parts of western Kentucky.  Perhaps during the morning hours and early afternoon.  Another chance for showers will arrive on Thursday, Friday, and perhaps even Saturday.  This is all because of the upper level low.  At this time, rainfall amounts should be light.  That would mean less than 0.50″.

Here is the official WPC rainfall forecast map (NOAA).  You can see where they cut the measurable precipitation off.  I think it will be a bit west of where they have placed the cut off.

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Wednesday morning low temperatures

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Wednesday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Thursday morning lows

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Thursday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Tuesday night through Sunday:  A few thunderstorms can’t be ruled out from Wednesday into Saturday.  Showers will mainly be the concern.  Small hail and cold air funnels will be possible.

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Updated rain chances for Wednesday.  No other major changes.

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No major concerns.  

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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