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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 27, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible if we clear out.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
Winds: North at 8 to 16 mph. Gusts to 25 mph before midnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (if anything at all).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 28, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Northerly at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear and cooler. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 29, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: Northerly at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North and northeast at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 30, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 76 IL ~70 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 78 TN ~ 72 to 78
Winds: East and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: East and northeast at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 1, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Easterly at 4 to 8 mph. Winds may become more south/southeast through the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: Southeast at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 2, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Not as cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 3, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Not as cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~60 to 65
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 4, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~60 to 65
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- Cooler and less humid air through the weekend
- Dry weather to continue
- Developing drought conditions
- Another heat ridge next week?
- Nice weekend ahead of us!
Short range comments
Subscribers, sign into your WeatherTalk account and see the latest October forecast. Click here for that information.
(See the long range discussion further down in this post)
Short and sweet.
The weather through Sunday will be cooler and less humid. Dry, as well.
Subscribers can see all of the long range outlooks on the WeatherTalk site. Click here for those (the links will take you to all of my daily links. You can also look back at previous days)
No significant rain for the region.
Nick, at WSIL put this out. This does sum up the drought situation. New drought maps will be issued on Thursday.
Temperature Forecast
Wednesday night low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Thursday night low temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Friday night low temperatures
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Thursday dew point temperatures
Lower dew points will mean a nicer feel to the atmosphere.
Friday dew point temperatures
Autumn dew points! Nicer.
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
This discussion covers next week.
Dry. That is going to increasingly become a story. Most of the guidance shows little to no rain through the end of next week. If true, then portions of our region will likely be placed in official drought conditions.
The overall pattern isn’t going to change.
If the ridge builds in next week, then we may return to the 80’s and perhaps 90’s. A ridge of high pressure typically means warm weather. Hard to believe the heat may return.
I am forecasting middle to upper 80’s as we push into middle and end of next week. I will hold off on the 90’s. Not confident on those numbers.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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