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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Monday Night – Clearing. Much cooler. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? If fog develops then lower visibility is a possibility.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-54 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:43 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 2:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:27 p.m. Waning Crescent
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September 27, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Cool. Pleasant. Fall like day! Patchy morning fog will mix out by mid-morning.
What impact is expected? Other than the lower visibility in fog areas, none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-76 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 8-14 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:42 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 3:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:05 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Fallish weather.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 28, 2016
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. A little warmer, but still pleasant. Great day anticipated weather-wise.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: West and northwest winds at 4-8 mph becoming northwest and north.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:48 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:40 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 4:29 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:39 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Perhaps some increase in clouds late.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 29, 2016
Thursday: Increasing clouds. A shower possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Small risk for lightning. Perhaps pea to dime size hail.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Perhaps gusty winds (depending on where the upper level low moves).
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No, but cold air funnels and small hail would be possible with showers or storms that might form. This would mainly be over southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:49 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:39 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 5:27 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:11 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Thursday Night – Some clouds. Cool. A shower possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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September 30, 2016
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. A shower or thunderstorm again possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible. Small hail possible if a few storms form. Cold air funnels possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-76 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 6:50 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:37 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 6:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 6:43 p.m. New Moon.
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Shower chances should be ending. Cool.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 1, 2016
Saturday: Partly cloudy. If the disturbance to our east does as forecast then we should have a dry day.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 72-76 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:36 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 7:19 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:14 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Saturday Night – A few clouds. Nice, otherwise.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. I will be watching a cut off low to our east. It is forecast to move west.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 2, 2016
Sunday: Partly cloudy. If the disturbance to our east does as forecast then we should have a dry day.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 75-80 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:51 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:34 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate
Moonrise will be at 8:14 a.m. and moonset will be at 7:46 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant changes are possible in the forecast.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Hello fall!
- Nice weather this week
- Patchy fog at night
- Monitoring a weak system to our east on Friday into Saturday. It could shift west.
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Who is up for some great news? Our first full week of fall is going to be wonderful. Pleasant weather through at least Thursday night and probably all the way into Sunday.
There could be some patchy fog at night. Keep that in mind. Otherwise, dry conditions.
There is an upper level low that will form over the northeast later this week. This low will then retrograde west and southwest on Thursday and Friday. There is some possibility it could drift far enough west to cause an increase in clouds over our eastern counties. This would also mean a chance for a few showers. I will need to monitor model trends. These type of systems don’t always behave as expected.
If the system were to push much further west then I would have to increase clouds and shower chances area-wide. For now, I am leaving the forecast dry. Monitor updates towards the end of the week.
These type of systems can occasionally produce small hail and cold air funnels, as well. What are cold air funnels? Click here.
Daily high temperatures will remain in the 70’s. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 40’s to middle 50’s. Great weather forecast!
How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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I am not anticipating any rain through at least Wednesday night. A disturbance will attempt to move into our region on Thursday and Friday. This could cause a few showers over our area. We should keep an eye on trends. The trend has been to bring this system further west. I will continue to monitor. For now, I have left the forecast dry all the way through Sunday.
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Wednesday morning lows
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Wednesday afternoon 1 pm temperatures.
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Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night through Sunday: No severe weather anticipated!
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No major changes in this update.
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No major concerns. Patchy morning fog could reduce visibilities. Nice weather this week.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
