Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 23rd and 24th: Above normal temperatures.

Sunday update

A couple of thunderstorms are possible in the heat of the day.  The best chance will be along the Missouri and Arkansas border and then along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.  Most areas will remain dry and hot.   Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the 88 to 92 degree range.  Dew points will be high.  That will make it feel humid.

Patchy fog tonight, especially in areas that picked a little rain this afternoon.  Otherwise, another mild night with lows in the middle to upper 60’s.

Here is the week ahead.  Cold front arrives mid-week

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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 23, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  A few evening clouds.  Patchy fog.  Mild.  A 10% chance on an isolated evening storms possible.
Temperatures   MO ~ 66 to 72      IL ~ 66 to 72      KY ~ 68 to 72    TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: Southeast at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning.  Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 24, 2017
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Heat index above 95 degrees.  Some cumulus clouds.  Warm and humid.  A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 92      IL ~ 86 to 92     KY ~ 86 to 92       TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none.  Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions.  Patchy fog.  Mild.  Only a 10% chance of an evening storm.
Temperatures   MO ~ 63 to 66    IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66    TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning.  Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 25, 2017
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.  Warm and humid.  A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 90      IL ~ 85 to 88      KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions.  Patchy fog.  Mild.  A 10% chance of an evening storm.
Temperatures   MO ~ 63 to 66    IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66    TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning.  Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 26, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Some cumulus clouds.  Warm and humid.  A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
Temperatures:   MO ~ 86 to 90      IL ~ 86 to 90      KY ~ 86 to 90       TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways.  Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Partly cloudy.  Patchy fog.  Mild.  A slight chance for late night thunderstorms.
Temperatures   MO ~ 63 to 66    IL ~ 63 to 66      KY ~ 63 to 66    TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 0 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Slight chance wet roadways and lightning.  Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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September 27, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.  A 20% for showers and thunderstorms.  Cooler.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 82      IL ~78 to 82      KY ~ 78 to 82       TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Isolated wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 20%    IL ~ 20%    KY ~ 20%    TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Perhaps scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Some clouds. A slight chance for a shower as the cold front moves through the area.
Temperatures   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64     TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Slight chance for wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 10%    IL ~ 10%    KY ~ 10%    TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation
: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 28, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.  Cooler.
Temperatures:   MO ~ 78 to 82      IL ~78 to 82      KY ~ 78 to 82       TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds: Northerly at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny. Cooler.
Temperatures   MO ~ 58 to 64      IL ~ 58 to 64       KY ~ 58 to 64     TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%    TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation
: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Saturday night through Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms each day.  This is especially true during the heat of the day.  The vast amount of the region will remain dry.

If storms form, then they could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and dime to nickel size hail.  A small risk for a severe thunderstorm.
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beausanalysis

Overview

Highlights of the forecast.

  1. Hot
  2. Heat index in the 90’s
  3. Cold front arrives mid-week

Short range comments

(See the long range discussion further down in this post)

More of the same for your Sunday and Monday.  No significant weather changes over the next couple of days.

Temperatures will continue to be WELL above normal with high temperatures in the upper 80’s and lower 90’s  Summer weather.

There will be a daily chance for isolated thunderstorms.  The vast majority of the region will remain dry.  Rain chances will be capped at 10% to 20%.  The best chance for thunderstorms will be along the Missouri and Arkansas border and then the Kentucky and Tennessee border.  Again, capped at 10% to 20%.

Winds will be light from the east/southeast/south through Monday.  Winds should remain less than 10 mph.

We will have patchy dense fog Saturday and Sunday night.

Sunday afternoon temperature anomalies tell the story.  This maps shows you how many degrees above normal we will be.

Normal high temperatures are in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.

Temperature Forecast

Saturday night low temperatures

Sunday high temperatures

Sunday night low temperatures

Monday high temperatures

Monday night low temperatures

Dew point scale

Dew points are what control how you feel outside.

Click images to enlarge

Sunday dew points

Monday dew points

Tuesday dew points

Wednesday dew points

Thursday dew points

MUCH nicer air-mass.

Long range comments

Significant weather changes will occur during the new work week.  A cold front will usher in cooler and drier weather.

The cold front is forecast to arrive on Wednesday.  A few showers and thunderstorms might accompany the front.

The main weather story, however, will be the cooler temperatures.  Temperatures will fall to more seasonal norms by Wednesday into the weekend.

This does not look to be a big rain maker.  I know some of you need rain, but it appears this front won’t be the solution to your precipitation problems.

The GFS rainfall forecast for Wednesday shows very little rain in our region.  Just a small area of grey.  That represents light rain.

Much of the region is dry.  Not all, but most.

There are signals that October will deliver above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

Here is the temperature map for Thursday morning.

I believe the GFS is too warm over half our region.  Temperatures will likely be cooler.  The GFS is slower with bringing the cold front southward.

Friday morning low temperature map.  Nicer air mass.  It might be cooler than this.

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Whom do you trust for your weather information?

I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

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Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015.

Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue.  2015 through current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.

I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.

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In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history.  This was in Houston, Texas.  I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita.  I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

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