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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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Wednesday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Lower visibility in areas with fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:51 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 10:45 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:04 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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September 22, 2016
Thursday: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. Very warm.
What impact is expected? Lower visibility in areas with fog.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:434 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:48 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. High
Moonrise will be at 11:38 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:07 p.m. Waning Gibbous
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Thursday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Lower visibility in areas with fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 23, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny. Hot.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:48 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. High
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 2:06 p.m. Last quarter
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Friday Night – Mostly clear to partly cloudy.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 24, 2016
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot for late September.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:45 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. High
Moonrise will be at 12:34 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:58 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Mild.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 25, 2016
Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10% (adjustments possible)
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:46 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:45 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high
Moonrise will be at 1:32 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:45 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Sunday Night – Increasing clouds. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10% (adjustments possible)
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps isolated over our western counties in southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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September 26, 2016
Monday: Partly cloudy. Perhaps a few showers and storms (mainly over southeast Missouri).
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20% (adjustments possible)
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered. Low confidence.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:47 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:42 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 3:31 a.m. and moonset will be at 5:05 p.m. Waning Crescent
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Monday Night – Quite a few clouds. Rain and storms possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southeast at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30% (adjustments likely)
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Repeat forecast
- Dry weather
- Monitoring late weekend into next week for a cold front
The forecast for Thursday will be the same as Wednesday! We are stuck in this pattern for a few more days. Expect temperatures to top out well above normal on Thursday and Friday. Highs into the upper 80’s and lower 90’s. At least this is making the weatherman’s job easy. I know it won’t last. Enjoy it. It won’t be long and people will be complaining about the cold weather.
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Our first day of fall will start off WELL above normal. Here is the temperature forecast anomaly for Thursday and Friday.
Normal high temperatures should range from 78 to 81 degrees. We will be well above that through Sunday.
Click image to enlarge
Here is the Friday departure map
Here is the latest drought monitor map. It is dry in our region, but we don’t register on the actual drought map. We had a wet summer. We have only dried out over the last few weeks.
Click to enlarge the map
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
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Tuesday night through Sunday should remain dry.
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Thursday afternoon 1 pm temperatures. Temperatures will likely rise a couple of more degrees after 1 pm.
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.Friday morning lows
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Friday afternoon 1 pm temperatures. Temperatures will likely rise a couple of more degrees after 1 pm.
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Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night through Sunday: No severe weather anticipated.
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No major changes
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No major concerns. Perhaps some morning patchy fog over the coming days. That would lower visibility.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
