Thursday morning update
Thursday, September 21, 2017
Highlights
1. 90 degree weather to continue
2. Heat index values well into the 90’s
3. Only small thunderstorm chances through Sunday
More of the same. I know some of you are loving this warm weather. I know many of you are not.
It is a bit humid.
Fall can’t be too far off. We are nearing the end of September.
I am tracking a potential cold front late next week. That might deliver cooler air. We have several days to monitor its progress.
In the meantime, we will have mostly sunny sky conditions each day. Afternoon cumulus clouds are likely.
High temperatures will remain the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees. Overnight lows will only dip into the 66 to 72 degree range.
Patchy fog is possible each night.
Thunderstorms chances, at any given spot, will be low.
A few isolated storms are possible over the coming days. Many will remain dry.
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 20, 2017
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: South winds at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Low visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 21, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Heat index above 95. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and humid. A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A chance of isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Warm. Patchy fog late. Only a 10% chance of an evening storm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Low visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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September 22, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Heat index above 95 degrees. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and humid. A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild. Only a 10% of an evening storm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 23, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Heat index above 95 degrees. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and humid. A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 92 IL ~ 86 to 92 KY ~ 86 to 92 TN ~ 86 to 92
Winds: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild. A 10% chance on an isolated evening storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: South and southeast at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 24, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Heat index above 95 degrees. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and humid. A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild. Only a 10% chance of an evening storm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 25, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and humid. A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild. A 10% chance of an evening storm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday night through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms each day. This is especially true during the heat of the day. The vast amount of the region will remain dry.
If storms form, then they could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and dime to nickel size hail. A small risk for a severe thunderstorm.
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Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- More warm weather
- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
- Hurricane Maria
Short range comments
The long range comments are towards the end of this digital blog update.
Warm weather continues. A rather stagnant weather pattern continues across our area. Temperatures will remain above normal through at least Monday.
We are going to experience some 90 degree readings. Very warm for the middle of September. Normal high temperatures are around 78 to 82 degrees. We will be well above that over the coming days.
Here is the GFS high and low temperatures for the coming days. Notice the big cool down towards the end of the month.
Click to enlarge.
We will have a small chances for thunderstorms through the weekend. Heat of the day thunderstorms are a possibility, but the vast majority of the region will remain dry.
I have lowered rain chances to 10% through Monday.
The dry conditions are certainly a problem. We are entering fire season, as well. Hopefully we can pick up some rain over the coming weeks (see long range discussion below).
Temperature Forecast
Wednesday night low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Thursday night low temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Friday night low temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Saturday night low temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Click images to enlarge
Thursday dew points
Friday dew points
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Long range comments
A historic hurricane has struck Puerto Rico. This is one of the larger storms in the recorded history of the island. It is likely one of two top storms ever recorded.
Winds of over 150 mph struck the island on Tuesday night. Catastrophic damage has occurred on the island. Major flash flooding is ongoing. Some areas have picked up one to two feet of rain.
Terrible event. This has been a deadly and costly hurricane season. We were due.
Our warm weather will continue into the weekend and part of next week.
I am tracking a potential cool down towards the end of the month and beginning of October. It is during that time that a stronger cold front will pass through our region.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely occur along the front. At this time, it appears we will have to wait until the middle/end of next week before the cooler air arrives.
This map is an upper air map. It is a 5-day mean average of temperature anomalies. Look at all the blue! That represents the potential for below normal temperatures. This map is for September 29th through October 4th. Still quite a few days away, but fall may be in the air as we move towards the end of the month.
Click image for a larger view.
I pulled up the GFS model guidance. I marked the cooler than normal temperatures with a green box.
Click to enlarge.
You can see the date in the lower left part of each image. Notice the cooler air by the 28th of September. The GFS model is showing cooler air through the end of its run. The end of the run would be October 5th.
Those of you wanting cooler air just might have some by late next week!
Again, here is what the GFS model is showing for high and low temperatures over the coming sixteen days. Confidence in the actual numbers decreases as you move further out in time.
Click to enlarge
Speaking of cooler air! Check out this photograph from Yellowstone National Park.
What about rain?
Unfortunately, model guidance is showing dry weather.
This next graphic is the ensemble mean rainfall totals from the EC guidance. This takes us through October 4th. Not much rain. There is a large band of heavier rain will to our west and well to our east. That leaves us in the middle.
We need rain. Fire season will be here soon. Hopefully we pick up some rain as we move into October.
The scale is on the right side of the page.
If this model is correct, then most of the area won’t receive more than 0.50″ of rain between now and October 4th.
Keep in mind, this is a model. Models are for guidance and they are not gospel. There could be adjustments.
Click image to enlarge.
Let’s look at the American model. This is the GFS guidance.
This is the 120 hour rainfall totals. Heavy to our west and southwest. Not a lot in our region.
Thunderstorms can always produce heavier rain. Widespread showers and thunderstorms appear unlikely over the next five days.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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