Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

September 16, 2016: Increasing rain chances for the weekend

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.

New!  Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.

I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab.
Click here.

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Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here
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Thursday Night
Sunset will be at 7:00 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 6:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 a.m.  Waxing Gibbous

Thursday Night –  Quite a few clouds.  Evening storms are possible.  Some heavy.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-74 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 40%.  KY~ 40% .  TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Isolated strong to severe weather risk.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.  Some areas will have heavy storms.

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September 16,  2016
Friday:
  Mix of sun and clouds.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.  Some heavy downpours possible.
What impact is expected?   Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.  Coverage will likely increase as the day wears on into Friday night.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  85-90 degree range.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%.  IL ~ 50%.  KY ~ 50% .  TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation?  Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected?  A few storms could produce gusty winds.  Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars and have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:59 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9.  Moderate to high (depending on clouds)
Moonrise will be at 7:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:19 a.m. Full Moon
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Friday Night –  Mostly  cloudy.  A 60% for thunderstorms.  Some heavy downpours possible.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 68-72 degree range
Winds: Winds south at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY~ 60% .  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected?  A few storms could produce gusty winds.  Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor radars and have a plan B.

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September 17,  2016
Saturday:
  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms likely.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What impact is expected?   Wet roadways and lightning.  Locally  heavy rain.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  80-85 degree range.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY ~ 60% .  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce gusty winds.  Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:57 p.m.
UV index will be 1-4.  Most likely low because of cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:28 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night –  Mostly cloudy.  A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 60%.  IL ~ 60%.  KY~ 60% .  TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered to numerous
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce gusty winds.  Severe weather risk is small.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifyingLow.  Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check radars.  Have a plan B.

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September 18,  2016
Sunday: 
Some clouds.  If the front passes through the region then rain chances will come to an end.  This needs to be monitored.
What impact is expected?   Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  80-85 degree range.
Winds:  Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.  

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%.  IL ~ 30%.  KY ~ 30% .  TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation?  Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected?  Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying:  Medium.  Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts.  Have a plan B in mind.
Sunrise will be at 6:40 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:56 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8.  Perhaps moderate.  Will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 8:28 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:38 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
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Low confidence on the Sunday night into Monday night forecast.

Sunday Night –  Clearing sky conditions.  Patchy fog.
What impact is expected?  Perhaps patchy fog.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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September 19,  2016
Monday:
  Patchy morning fog.  Mostly sunny after the fog mixes out.
What impact is expected?   Patchy morning fog.
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  76-84 degree range.
Winds:  Northwest/north winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.  

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:54 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8.  Perhaps moderate.  Will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 9:11 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
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Monday Night –   Patchy fog.   A few clouds.
What impact is expected?  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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September 20,  2016
Tuesday:
  Partly cloudy.   A small chance for a sprinkle.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures:  High temperatures in the  78-86 degree range.
Winds:  Variable winds at 5-10 mph

What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY ~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation?  None to isolated
Is severe weather expected?  No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise will be at 6:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:53 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8.  Perhaps moderate.  Will need to monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 9:56 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:57 a.m.  Waning Gibbous
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Tuesday Night –   Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?  
Temperatures:  Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation?  MO ~ 10%.  IL ~ 10%.  KY~ 10% .  TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low.  Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No


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More information on the UV index.  Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness.  Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities.  Visit their web-site here.  And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!

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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.  Click here to visit their site.

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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties.  We look forward to representing YOU!  Follow us on Facebook, as well

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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days

  1.   Rain chances are on the increase
  2.   Have a plan B for Friday into Sunday (it won’t rain all the time)

Check out this photograph of a tropical funnel cloud.  Normally these do not touch down.  They can be amazing to watch.  This was photographed near Delta, MO on Wednesday afternoon.

Trevor Cannon took this photograph.

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Showers and storm chances will be on the increase through the weekend.  It won’t rain all of the time, but there will be plenty of shower and thunderstorm activity to deal with.  Have a plan B.

Temperatures will remain in the 80’s Friday into Sunday.  It is possible that Sunday high temperatures will end up in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.

Rainfall totals could be heavy.  Some spots will top 1-3″ of rain.  Keep in mind, thunderstorms can produce torrential downpours.  It is not uncommon for these type of storms to produce 1-2″ of rain per hour.

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Don’t forget that fall often times delivers severe weather.  Tornadoes are not uncommon during October and November.
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How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
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Rainfall totals will vary greatly.  Thunderstorms could produce 1-3″ of rain per hour.   Here is a broad-brushed general rainfall outlook for the coming days.  Just keep in mind that heavier totals are likely to occur.
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Friday morning low temperatures
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Friday afternoon high temperature
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Saturday morning lows
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Saturday afternoon highs
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Storm Tracking Radar

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

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Thursday night:  Storms are possible.  Lightning is the main concern.  Isolated severe weather risk.
Friday into Saturday night:  Thunderstorms are possible.  Monitor updates.  Lightning is the main concern.
Sunday:  Perhaps a few remaining storms on Sunday.  Low confidence.  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

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Updated temperatures and rain chances.
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A few storms into the weekend.  Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events.

Have a plan B for Friday-Sunday.  At least on and off rain chances will be with us.  It won’t rain all the time.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology.  I graduated from Mississippi State University.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.  I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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