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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 14, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy dense fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
Winds: Variable at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 15, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy morning dense fog. Mostly sunny. Mild. A bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 68
Winds: Variable winds at 5 mph becoming southeast
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility in fog
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 16, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. Warm and a bit humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 17, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. A few afternoon cumulus clouds with a 10% for a thunderstorm. Warm and a bit more humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Small risk for lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 15%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. A 20% for an evening thunderstorm. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Small chance for an isolated evening storm.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 18, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance for a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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September 19, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A chance for wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and Thursday, as well. Above normal temperatures.
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm
Thursday night through Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible on Monday/Monday night and perhaps Tuesday/Tuesday night. Lower confidence on the Monday/Tuesday part of the forecast.
Lightning risk
Overview
Are there any weather concerns
- Warmer weather
- Thunderstorm chances early next week (low confidence)
- Warm weather will continue for awhile
Short range
Confidence level in the short range forecast is high
We had some fog on Thursday morning and more fog is likely over the coming nights. Use care.
Warmer weather is arriving and will last into the weekend. Some of you will be happy and some of you will not. I know some of you are already in a “fallish” mood.
You have been spoiled by the recent cool weather. We are going to shift into the above normal range for a few days. The weekend will be downright warm! Higher dew points, as well.
We should remain dry through Sunday night. Some model guidance is showing a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm on Sunday. I added a very low chance, but believe dry will win out (I will monitor trends).
Rainfall totals from Irma ranged from 0.00″ to 0.60″. A few spots had heavier totals. Many still need rain.
Rain chances will be in the forecast for Monday, but confidence on that is rather low. See the long range discussion further down in this post.
It will also become a bit more humid with each passing day. Again, summer weather.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
Click images to enlarge
Low temperatures for Thursday night (below)
High temperatures for Friday
Low temperatures for Friday night
High temperatures for Saturday
Saturday night low temperatures
High temperatures for Sunday
Sunday night low temperatures
Dew point scale
Click images to enlarge
Dew points for Friday
Increasingly humid
Dew points for Saturday
Dew points for Sunday
Long range
The confidence level is low to medium for the long range forecast.
We may have some thunderstorms on Monday and Monday night.
On Monday morning a cold front will be situated to our west/northwest. This is a weak front with weak lift.
There will be CAPE (potential energy) available on Monday. If we have a trigger, then a few storms should pop up.
CAPE forecast. CAPE is energy for thunderstorms. We have not had a lot of CAPE lately.
Let’s not forget that our second severe weather “season” is fast approaching. I don’t like using the word, season. We can have severe weather year-round. Normally the middle of October into November is active for our region. People often times don’t associate severe weather with fall.
Not a lot of lift on Monday. I believe most of the area will remain dry. A few scattered storms are possible.
The shaded area with the brighter colors represent areas with lift or potential precipitation. More to our north vs our local area. There could be a few severe thunderstorms to our north on Monday.
For the time being, I am going to keep rain chances on the low side for Monday into Monday evening.
It will be warm and humid into at least Tuesday and Wednesday. We will have scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday night into Thursday.
Let’s look at some model guidance.
The EC and some others models are popping scattered thunderstorms on Sunday. I just don’t know about this. I added a slight chance, but not overly confident there will be anything on radar.
These following maps are from the EC model guidance. Grey areas represent light rain. Green represents rain. These are six hour rainfall totals.
This first image is for Sunday morning and early afternoon. The model is showing a few scattered showers over southeast Missouri into the St Louis area. It also hints at a shower or two in western Kentucky.
I don’t have a lot of confidence in there being rain on Sunday. Heat of the day pop-up storms can’t be ruled out, but the better lift arrives on Monday.
This next image is from 1 pm on Sunday through 7 pm on Sunday
Again, the EC wants to paint a few showers in our region. Confidence is low.
Late Sunday night into early Monday
This image below is showing a band of showers and thunderstorms forming Sunday night. It would stretch from Kansas into southern Missouri. I do have a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday night. We will just have to see about coverage. For now, I have low end chances.
This is the map for Monday morning through early afternoon. Clouds and some showers in the region.
Confidence in coverage is rather low. Perhaps a few showers and storms.
This next map is for Monday afternoon through early evening. Again, the EC guidance is showing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
This next map is for Tuesday morning into early afternoon. The EC is showing a few showers and thunderstorms in the area.
Again, confidence is low.
This next map is for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
This next map is for Wednesday morning into the early afternoon hours.
The EC paints scattered showers and thunderstorms in our region. Confidence in coverage is low.
Let’s look at model rainfall totals. This runs from now through Wednesday afternoon. Click image for a larger view.
If we are to believe the EC guidance, then portions of the region could pick up a bit of rain.
Here is what the GFS model guidance is showing for the same time period.
Finally, here is what the Canadian model is showing for the same time period. It shows less rainfall than the EC and GFS.
The bottom line is that we have at least some chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday night and continuing into next week. Confidence in totals and coverage is still rather low. That means that I am not sure how much rain we will receive. I have a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast. I will fine tune the forecast moving forward. I will monitor data trends.
The six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks are favoring above normal temperatures.
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Eight to fourteen day outlook (see dates at top of image)
Click to enlarge
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I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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Member of the American Meteorological Society.
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In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
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