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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 12, 2017
Tuesday Night Forcast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: East and northeast at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
September 13, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Some remaining showers possible. Cool. If Irma departs faster then temperatures will be a bit higher than forecast.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Variable winds at 6 to 12 mph. Wind diminishing
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. A chance for scattered showers. Rain should be ending.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 62 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 56 to 62 TN ~ 56 to 62
Winds: Variable at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
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September 14, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Becoming sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~78 to 82 IL ~ 78 to 82 KY ~ 78 to 82 TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds: Variable winds att 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 IL ~ 60 KY ~ 60 TN ~ 60
Winds: Variable at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 15, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: Southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: Variable winds at 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 16, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 17, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 86 IL ~ 84 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 86 TN ~ 84 to 86
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 64 IL ~ 60 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 64
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm
Tuesday night through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Overview
Are there any weather concerns
- Irma spreading rain and gusty winds into the region
- Below normal temperatures to continue
Short range
Confidence level in the short range forecast is high
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
The main weather story, for the short term, will be scattered rain showers in the region into Wednesday. Coverage will decrease with time. Severe weather is not anticipated. Rain totals won’t be excessive.
A significant warming trend will arrive towards the weekend. Thursday into Sunday will deliver high temperatures in the 80’s. We might even move into the upper 80’s by Sunday and Monday.
Here is the GFS guidance. This is one model’s opinion on rainfall totals. It is even showing 90’s. I think that might be too warm, but certainly 80’s are going to verify.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
Temperatures will be well below normal as Irma approaches our region. Thick clouds and rain will be the cause.
Click images to enlarge
Low temperatures for Tuesday night (below)
High temperatures for Wednesday (below)
Low temperatures for Wednesday night (below)
High temperatures for Thursday
Low temperatures for Friday night
High temperatures for Friday
Dew point scale
Click images to enlarge
Dew points for Wednesday
Dew points for Thursday
Dew points for Friday
Long range
The confidence level is high for the long range forecast.
We should dry out Thursday through Sunday and temperatures will move closer to normal to even above normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
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WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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