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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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September 11, 2016
Sunset will be at 7:06 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 3:37 p.m. and moonset will be at 1:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cooler and less humid. Nice night! Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 52-56 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Keep in mind that patchy fog will be possible this week during the late night hours and early morning hours.
September 12, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Nice day. Patchy morning fog will mix out early in the day.
What impact is expected? Low visibility in a few spots.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 3-6 mph. Gusts to 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:35 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:05 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 4:23 p.m. and moonset will be at 2:05 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Pleasant. Will monitor for patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds east at 0-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 13, 2016
Tuesday: Morning patchy fog. Mostly sunny.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Light and variable/east/southeast winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:03 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 5:08 p.m. and moonset will be at 3:03 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-66 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 00%. KY~ 00% . TN ~ 00%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 14, 2016
Wednesday: A few clouds. Will be monitoring a cold front to our north. I can’t rule out some showers moving in from the north.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-88 degree range.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 6:36 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:02 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high. Will monitor cloud cover.
Moonrise will be at 5:50 p.m. and moonset will be at 4:06 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
What impact is expected? Maybe some patchy fog. Wet roadways. Lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northeast/east at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 15, 2016
Thursday: Partly cloudy. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? None to perhaps isolated
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:37 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:00 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 6:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:11 a.m. Waxing Gibbous
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Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A 20% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 64-68 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some isolated storms
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 16, 2016
Friday: Mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 50%. IL ~ 50%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered (monitor updates)
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars and have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:38 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:59 p.m.
UV index will be 6-9. Moderate to high (depending on clouds)
Moonrise will be at 7:09 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:19 a.m. Full Moon
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Friday Night – Partly cloudy. A 60% for thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-70 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and have a plan B.
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September 17, 2016
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:57 p.m.
UV index will be 2-5.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:28 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Mostly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds west at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY~ 50% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars. Have a plan B.
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September 18, 2016
Sunday: Some clouds. If the front passes through the region then rain chances will come to an end. This needs to be monitored.
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 12 mph. Winds becoming northwest.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts. This could change.
Sunrise will be at 6:39 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:57 p.m.
UV index will be 4-6.
Moonrise will be at 7:48 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:28 a.m. Waning Gibbous
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Saturday Night – Decreasing clouds and cooler. Less humid. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast might be necessary.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Nice weather over the coming days.
- Perhaps a few thunderstorms as early as Wednesday
- Better shower and thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday
The region experienced beautiful weather on Sunday. Temperatures started out in the 50’s and rose into the 70’s during the afternoon hours. Mostly sunny sky conditions.
The coming days will deliver a slow warming trend. Highs by Monday and Tuesday will rise into the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Dry conditions. Dew points will slowly be on the rise, as well.
At this time, it appears we will have dry weather through Tuesday night. A weak cold front will move towards our region by Wednesday and Thursday. I am monitoring Wednesday into Thursday for a few showers. Confidence, at this time, is fairly low. Monitor updates. I did introduce small rain chances for both days.
A stronger storm system arrives on Friday and Saturday. We may have quite a few showers and thunderstorms on both days. I am leaning towards the highest rain probabilities arriving on Friday night and Saturday. If you have plans this weekend then have a plan B. We should dry out by Sunday.
Let’s look at a couple of precipitation maps for Friday into Sunday. This is the GFS model guidance. Green represents showers and thunderstorms.
This first image is for Friday at 1 pm. You can see some showers ands torms in the region. An area of low pressure is located over Kansas and Nebraska.
This next image is for Saturday morning at 1 am.
This next image is for Saturday at 1 pm.
This next image is for Sunday morning at 1 am.
This next image is for Sunday at 1 pm. Showers should be ending on Saturday night and Sunday morning.
I hope you have a nice week.
How much rain is forecast to fall over the coming days?
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No rain is anticipated through Tuesday.
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Showers and thunderstorms could enter the picture as early as Wednesday and Wednesday night. An even better chance of precipitation arrives on Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rain can’t be ruled out.
Monday morning low temperatures
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Monday afternoon high temperature
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Tuesday morning lows
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Tuesday afternoon highs
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Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Sunday night – Friday: No severe weather anticipated.
Thursday into Friday: A few storms possible.
Friday night into Saturday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.
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Updated temperatures. Removed rain chances for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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No major concerns.
Perhaps some patchy fog during the late night hours and early morning hours.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
