Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 9 and 10, 2017: Some storms in the forecast.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Storm tracking links below

1. Thunderstorms this morning. Some storms will produce heavy rain, pea size hail, and gusty winds. Lightning, of course.
2. Another round of storms possible mid-afternoon into the evening hours.
3. A few storms this afternoon could be strong with severe weather not out of the question.
4. Slightly cooler weather Wednesday and Thursday.

This morning

Several heavy thunderstorms on radar, as of 7:30 AM.

Storms are moving towards the northeast at 30 mph. The risk for severe weather this morning is low.

We may have some broken clouds this afternoon. That will mean some spotty sunshine. IF that occurs, then instability will build.

The more sunshine later today, the higher the risk for a few severe thunderstorms by late afternoon and evening.

The overall severe weather risk is small at any given location. A few spots could have quarter size hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado risk.

The limiting factor for severe weather today is CAPE. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. CAPE builds when dew points and temperatures rise.

Thunderstorms will diminish tonight.

Some clouds will linger on Wednesday with highs only in the 70’s.

Clearing with patchy fog Wednesday night. Mild on Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 70’s.

Friday and Saturday will be warm with highs mostly in the 80’s. Dry weather is anticipated by both Friday and Saturday.

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This forecast covers the counties in red.  The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.

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October 9, 2017
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Increasing clouds.  Patchy fog possible.  Mild.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely.  The greatest chance will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.  Perhaps far western Kentucky, as well.  A few storms could produce small hail and heavy downpours.  Gusty winds near storms.
Temperatures   MO ~ 64 to 68     IL ~ 64 to 68     KY ~ 64 to 68
Winds:  Winds becoming east and southeast at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Lightning.  Wet roadways possible.  Small hail possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? The risk is small.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 60%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check updates and radars

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October 10, 2017
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Intervals of clouds and sun.  Very warm for October.  A chance for early morning thunderstorms and then a chance of mid to late afternoon thunderstorms.  Some storms could be intense, especially after 2 pm.  Monitor updates.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 82 to 86    IL ~80 to 85      KY ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Southeast winds becoming south/southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.  Monitor the risk of strong/severe storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  There is a chance of severe thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 60%    IL ~ 60%    KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.

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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Evening clouds.  Becoming partly cloudy late. A chance of evening showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers late.  Some of the thunderstorms could be intense during the first half of the night.  Turning cooler than recent nights.
Temperatures   MO ~ 53 to 56     IL ~ 53 to 56      KY ~ 53 to 56
Winds:  Southwest winds becoming north and northwest winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 14 mph early
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the evening hours for perhaps a couple of intense storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A few severe thunderstorms are possible before midnight.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 30%    IL ~ 50%    KY ~ 50%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  Scattered.  Perhaps a line of showers and storms early in the night.  Rain will wind down as we push deeper into the night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates

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October 11, 2017
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Cooler.  Most likely dry.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 73 to 76    IL ~72 to 75      KY ~ 73 to 76
Winds: West and northwest at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cooler.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures   MO ~ 52 to 54     IL ~ 52 to 54    KY ~ 52 to 54
Winds:  Northwest winds at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps patchy fog with lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 10%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 12, 2017
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 75 to 78    IL ~75 to 78      KY ~ 75 to 78
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures   MO ~ 52 to 56     IL ~ 52 to 56    KY ~ 52 to 56
Winds:  Variable winds at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Perhaps patchy fog with lower visibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

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October 13, 2017
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 80 to 84    IL ~ 80 to 84      KY ~ 80 to 84
Winds: Variable winds at 4 to 8 mph.  Winds becoming southerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No

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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast
:  Mostly clear.
Temperatures   MO ~ 55 to 60     IL ~ 55 to 60    KY ~ 55 to 60
Winds:  Southerly winds at 4 to 8 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation
?  MO ~ 0%    IL ~ 0%    KY ~ 0%   
Coverage of precipitation
:  None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

 

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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.

Monday night through Tuesday:  Thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday night.

There is risk of a few reports of hail Monday night and Tuesday morning.  Organized severe weather appears unlikely.

There is a conditional risk of severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  If instability develops then all modes of severe weather would be possible.  That would include a risk of damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.

The risk is conditional.  Conditional means that there is some question as to whether instability develops.

Monitor updates.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

I will monitor the severe weather risk.  Tornado risk is not zero.

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beausanalysis

Overview

Highlights of the forecast.

  1.  Thunderstorm risk
  2.  Warm weather to continue

Short range comments

Subscribers, sign into your WeatherTalk account and see the latest October forecast.  Click here for that information.

See the long-range discussion further down in this post.

The main focus of this update will be thunderstorm chances between now and Tuesday night.

A warm and moist atmosphere blankets our region.  This is more typical of spring weather.   I supposed we are used to it by now.  The calendar is ticking away on our fall season.  Temperatures don’t seem to be responding.

A warm front will push into the region later today and tonight.  This will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances to the area.

Some of the storms on Monday night could produce small hail.  Lightning will be a concern, of course.  Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds, as well.

Once again, not everyone will receive rain on Monday night.  Some storms could produce a quick 1/2″ of rain.  Locally higher totals are always possible.

An area of low pressure will move into the area on Tuesday afternoon and evening.  A cold front will trail the low.

The low is forecast to pass near the St Louis area.  That places us in the warm sector of the storm.  Warm sector means the unstable section.  This is where thunderstorms typically occur.

Wind fields at the surface and aloft will be turning.  There will also be an increase in wind speeds as you move higher into the atmosphere.  This is called wind shear.

You need several ingredients for severe weather.  Lift, moisture, instability (CAPE), and wind shear.

We will have lift.  That would be the cold front.  We will have plenty of moisture.  Dew points will rise well into the 60’s and perhaps lower 70’s.  We will have wind shear.

Here is a diagram of a cold front.  Imagine a bulldozer pushing into the warm/moist air.

What is missing?  Perhaps CAPE.

This part of the forecast is an unknown.  IF CAPE develops, then severe storms could form Tuesday afternoon and evening. These storms would then move northeast through the region.

If CAPE does not develop, then severe weather is unlikely.  We will have some showers and locally heavy storms with the front, but they would remain below severe levels.

If we have quite a bit of sun on Tuesday, then CAPE will develop.  The atmosphere becomes more unstable when we heat up the surface of the planet.

This is a conditional severe weather threat.  That means it is dependent on CAPE.

Monitor updates as we move through the next 24 to 36 hours.

CAPE forecast for 1 pm, 4 pm, and 7 pm.  This is for Tuesday.

4 PM

And 7 PM

Lifted index maps

What is the lifted index?

Instability: A negative LI indicates that the atmosphere is unstable with respect to the middle troposphere. This is an environment in which convection can occur. The more negative the LI the more unstable the troposphere and the more buoyant the acceleration will be for rising parcels of air from the surface. ~ Haby Hints

Lifted index map for Tuesday at 4 pm.  Definitely negative numbers.  Unstable atmosphere.

These are decent numbers for October.  Lift index values of greater than negative five.

Wind shear.  We will have wind shear.  Bulk shear numbers are going to be in the 4o+ knot range.  That is quite a bit of wind shear.  Certainly enough for concern.  Again, CAPE is the real question.

The SPC WRF model shows supercells forming Tuesday afternoon.

Here is the future-cast radar for 6 PM and 7 PM

Let’s take a look at the high resolution NAM guidance.  This is the future-cast radar.  This is what radar might look like over the next 48 hours.

For those wanting fall, you are going to have to wait a bit longer.

Temperatures over the next 24 to 36 hours will remain in the well above normal category.  That will mean another day with temperatures in the 80’s.

The good news, for those wanting somewhat cooler weather, is that Wednesday and Thursday should only have high temperatures in the 70’s.  I know, not a serious cool down, but better than 80’s!

For those wanting the summer weather to continue, don’t worry.  The long range charts show above normal temperatures into next week.

 

 

 

 

 

Temperature Forecast

Monday night low temperatures

Tuesday high temperatures

Tuesday night low temperatures

Wednesday high temperatures

Wednesday night low temperatures

Thursday high temperatures

Thursday night low temperatures

Dewpoint scale

Dew points are what control how you feel outside.

Tuesday dew points

Check out Tuesday evening’s dew point map.  You can see the cold front moving through our region.  Lower dew points behind the cold front.

Wednesday dew points

Thursday dew points

Long range forecast discussion

Temperatures should rebound a bit by Friday.  We may move back into the 80’s.  Saturday and Sunday should be warm, as well.

A cold front could approach from the northwest on Sunday and Sunday night.  For now, the guidance indicates a few scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front.

Here is the GFS map for Sunday

You can see the rain in green.  As the front moves southeast it appears to lose the higher precipitation chances.  Still a bit early for confidence on the weekend forecast.

For now, I will leave Friday, Friday night, Saturday and Saturday night dry.

Sunday, 7 AM weather map.  Showers and storms to our northwest.

Sunday, 1 PM weather map.  Most of the green is gone.

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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s.  I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.

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There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  You need a trusted source for information.

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