Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

October 8, 2015: Guess what? Thursday will be another warm one!

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

Wednesday night –  A few clouds.  Above normal temperatures for October.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds:
East/southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Thursday – Partly sunny.  Mild.  Well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.  Well above normal temperatures.
Winds:
  West/southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation? 1
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Thursday night –  Increasingly cloudy.  A chance or a shower or thunderstorm late at night.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds:
South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   40%-60%
What impact is expected?
  Maybe some lightning.

 

Friday – Quit a few clouds.  A few showers or thunderstorms as a cold front advances into the region.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower to middle 70’s.
Winds:
  Northwest after frontal passage.  Wind speeds of 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No, but monitor updated forecasts as we may have some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation? 
60%
What impact is expected?  Maybe some lightning.

 

Friday night –  Decreasing clouds.  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds:
North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   20% before 5 pm
What impact is expected?
  No impacts.

 

Saturday – Mostly sunny.  Perhaps some puffy cumulus clouds.  Cooler temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s.
Winds:
  North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Saturday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to  upper 40’s.
Winds:
North winds at 5 mph.  Winds becoming variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle 70’s.
Winds:
  West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Sunday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds:
Southerly winds at 5-10 mph becoming calm or variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Columbus Day – Monday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Windy, at times.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds:
  Southwest winds at 10-20  mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Monday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds:
North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds:
  North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Tuesday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 50’s.
Winds:
North and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds:
  East winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Wednesday night –  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds:
Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  
No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?
  No real impacts.

 

Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds:
  South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? 
No
Is severe weather expected?  No

What is the chance for precipitation?
0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

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beausanalysis

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Well above normal temperatures continue
2.  Cold front arrives on Friday
3.  A few rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along the front
4.  Cooler for the weekend
5.  Another warming trend next week

You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below).  That includes the frost forecast.

Well, the October forecast was for there to be more at or below normal temperature days vs above normal temperature days.  We are starting to rack up a few above normal temperature days and we are going to add some more over the coming 7-10 days.

Here is where we are at so far.  Everything in blue is at or below normal in the temperature department.  Everything in red is above normal.  You can tack on Tuesday and Wednesday to the above normal category.  And, Thursday, as well.  Might be tied up soon!

This is the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service daily stats.

DY means day
MAX means the high temp
MIN means the low temp
AVG is the average and then DEP is the departure

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We will see if the big cold shot around the third week or so of October comes to pass.  I am keeping an eye on the potential.  Bus, alas…that is a long way off!

Back to the short term forecast:

We have another warm day on tap for Thursday.  Well above normal temperatures.  Highs will top out in the 80’s across the region.  Certainly does not feel like fall weather.  The good news is that we are not dealing with severe weather.  Typically warm days in fall can be a problem.  Especially true the later into fall we track.  I normally start to watch the last half of October and November for severe thunderstorms.  But, no worries on the particular front, at this time.

Check out these high temperatures for Thursday.  Much of the United States will experience above normal temperatures on Thursday.

Here is the national map of forecast high temperatures

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And the departures (how many degrees above normal will temperatures be on Thursday)

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A cold front will push through our region on Friday.  This front will usher in cooler air for the weekend.  It will also produce some showers and perhaps thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday.

Right now I am forecasting the rain to come to an end by Friday evening.  I believe the Friday night football games will be dry.  Cooler, as well.

Let’s take a look at a couple of weatherbell.com high resolution WRF model future-cast radars.

This is the 9 pm to 11 pm future-cast radar for Thursday night.  Precipitation still mostly to our northwest.  A broken line of showers and thunderstorms.

hires_ref_mw_40

Moving ahead to 7 am on Friday morning.  A few showers and thunderstorms in our local area.  Does not look overly impressive.

hires_ref_mw_49

Moving ahead to 11 am to 1 pm.  Some rain and rumbles of thunder in our region.  A bit more coverage.  Assuming this model is correct.

hires_ref_mw_55

Moving ahead to Friday afternoon.  Precipitation should be on the way out.  It is moving east.

hires_ref_mw_58

By Friday evening around 7 pm.  Rain should be ending in our local region.  Perhaps a few remaining showers over our far southeastern counties.

hires_ref_mw_61

 

As far as rainfall totals.  Still some questions on just how much precipitation falls along the front.  I believe that a band of showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday evening and night to our northwest.  These showers and storms will push further south and east as the night wears on.  By Friday morning we should have some precipitation on our local radar.

Rainfall totals of 0.10″-0.30″ are possible.  Some of the guidance paints a bit more than that.  Most likely that would occur if some thunderstorms form.  Thunderstorms, of course, can produce locally heavy downpours.  Although, I believe the general rule will be less vs more on rainfall totals.

Here is the forecast rainfall map.   Not all that impressive.  The light green represents 0.01″ to 0.40″.

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Let’s look at two models.  These images are from weatherbell.com

The first image is the GFS model and the second image is the NAM model.  The NAM is a higher resolution model and in theory should be more accurate in guidance.

These are forecasted rainfall totals.  The GFS is slim pickins.  The NAM drops a bit more rain, but is suspect on that narrow band of heavier precipitation.  The rainfall scale is on the right side  of the image.

gfs_tprecip_mc_20

nam_total_precip_mc_29

Hopefully we can pick up a little bit of rainfall from this front.

Not concerned about severe weather with this particular cold front.

severeoutlook

 

The weekend should be dry and cooler.  I am expecting temperatures to warm again by early next week.  We are not finished with the 80’s.

Here is the Saturday high temperature map.  Saturday will be a bit more on the cool side vs warm.

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And, here is the Sunday high temperature map.  Morning lows on Sunday will dip into the 40’s.  Note the warming back to the west and southwest.  That will move our way on Monday and Tuesday.

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I increased the rain chances by a margin or two on Thursday night and Friday.

 

whatamiconcered

No major concerns for Thursday.  Perhaps some lightning on Thursday night and Friday.

 

willineedtotakeaction

No, not on Thursday.  Perhaps an umbrella on Friday.

 

wildcard

The wild card for the forecast will be rainfall totals late Thursday night and Friday.  Perhaps 0.10″-0.40″ for many locations.  We could use the rain.
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Currently no frost in the local forecast.  Still a little early for frost.  I am watching October 16th through the 28th for a cold snap.  Maybe frost?

For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

 

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Let’s take a look at some winter data.

Let me show you some NOAA data.  They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino.  Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method.  I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.

With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics

Strong southern jet stream.  I agree with that.  Potentially dry in our region.  I am unsure about that.

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Then there is this map

What would a typical El Nino winter look like?  Above normal temperatures over the northern United States.  Below normal precipitation in and near our region.  Again, this is what NOAA puts out.

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My thoughts below:

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

cansips_z500a_us_2

This next map is for January

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This next map is for February

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This next map is for March

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Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

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Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

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This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

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And, let’s take at look at March.

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So, what does this mean?

Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

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Radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No measurable precipitation anticipated through at least Thursday.

Here is the rainfall total forecast for the Thursday night into Friday cold frontal passage.  Maybe a few spots will pick up some light totals.  Do not be surprised if many areas miss out on the rainfall with this particular front.

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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO through Thursday.

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Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Maybe a thunderstorm along an advancing cold front.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

levelnostorms

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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGEClick here

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

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Regional Radar

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Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

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I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

clickherewatches

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

  • Communicate in simple terms
  • To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
  • Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
  • Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
  • Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

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Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

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You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.

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